LP08

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

18z GFS was a good hit for *ducks* Charlottesville.

 

And apparently Chile....doh!

138 precip to Cville 500 looks much better.

edit lol

UKMET and Euro pretty similar in their precip.

150 has the Surface low in S Georgia compared to off the coast at 0Z.

Through 132.  Trough sharper as stated above.  Surface low a little further north and its slower. (Compared to 0Z)

Nothing north of the NC/VA border through 147....Bleh

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

If there ends up being an issue with this run, it won't be the northern s/w IMO... our southern s/w is weaker.  But maybe a phase pulls it north?

Yeah 6z was closed at H5 in southern MZ, 12z is open and further south through 138

Through 123, the NS Vort that enters near the UP of Mich. is further North.

Stronger SS vort through 102.  Heights a little lower along the East coast.  (GFS 12z)

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

An early guess on the gfs is that this will be further north. Don’t laugh if I’m way way off

Heights are a little higher in front through 120.

Looks like the Euro at 168 is off Jax...

Delayed but not denied it seems.

It’s coming North...temps might be an issue due to the delayed onset. At 180

NS Sw isn’t beating down the western ridge as much.  Much sharper trough moving across the country

6 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

One thing I don't like seeing is a weaker trend in the SS wave. I posted the last 3 runs of the GFS. As @psuhoffman was saying we need more northern stream interaction to pull it north and I think the weaker wave is contributing to that. I would like to see a comeback to a stronger wave in future runs so we can rely less on interaction with the NS. 

It seems confluence is ussually over modeled out in time so hopefully that helps bring it further north.

I'm near the PA border and my bigger concern is still to far north lol. 

It seems once things trend to far north we just can't get it back under us.

I like where we are at right now.

 

 

 

I was going to mention yesterday that at “range” last year, we had plenty of teases and great Ensemble runs with a robust southern stream SW.  The biggest issue was the initial Vort would progressively get weaker and weaker each run, especially the southern stream ones.  

Im hoping with this being a Nino that won’t be the case, however it is sticking in the back of my mind.

8-15” plus from Ezf to the Pa border.

It’s a shellacking.  Perfect track.

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Is there a DE guy I don't know about?

Lol....it was from last year.  He always got into it with PSU how Delaware schools would close.

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

I can't put a finger on why but for some reason I'm rooting for rain in CHO

Makes me want to root for snow closures in Delaware.....

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

It sucks for anyone east of I81

Yes Verbatim..but it drive the low into PA.  Closer to a jump south of us and a sizable hit.

I like the run.  Initial low to the west dies quicker this run.  Adjust it south before it jumps and it’s a huge hit.  Much better than 12z.

850 line stays well south (near Richmond). Very nice run and biggish hit in central va

198 mod snow into DC...heavy in ezf 

From northern MS to off the coast.  Very nice run.

I might have to pony up some money to see the good stuff lol.

Just now, psuhoffman said:

At 192 euro is cold. Plenty cold enough for antecedent conditions as the storm approached. Also the trough is healthy looking but not as far west as the fv3. Could be a good run incoming. 

Yeah, this is a pretty good look