LP08

Don’t have precip but the Euro at 192 looks pretty good to me.

That 18z nam run showed this yesterday.  We were maybe ~.5 degrees from an isothermal profile.  For once, heavy rates are winner for us.

Back to more sleet than rain down here in Southern Charles...could mean some brief hope for those further north.

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Mix line showing up nicely on CC radar. Runs along 66 in VA and Rt 50 in MD. Not sure what’s south of there. Just sleet?  I imagine we’re going to be rate dependent for the next couple hours.

I'm in southern Charles county due east of Quantico across the river and its Sleet and Rain mixed.

.8 in Indian Head Md. Southern Charles county.

This fronto band is my new best friend.  SN+

Legit heavy snow south of the MGM on 210....Road trying to cave

These yellows are legit moving into the metro

Mostly snow now.  Temp 33

Snow/sleet mix in N Arlington

38/26 N. Arlington

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

18z 3k went a little colder in the mids than 12z. Step in the right direction at least...

This is about as close as it gets. 

3k Sounding below at onset near DC.  About an hour faster.

Digging through soundings on the 3k show the area around DCA popping to 33 with some shallow warm layers on the way through the column.  It's very close throughout. 

Just now, yoda said:

12z 3km NAM snow 10:1 lol

 

 

Lol I saw that.  90% of that is sleet/frza.  DCA stays right around 32 throughout the event but there are warm layers poking in when looking at soundings.

3k is quicker as well with a pretty good thump from Fredericksburg North.

Quicker onset with precip.  ULL still goes north of the area so no now after the initial thump but that is still way out in clown range.  ULL was quicker overall, just need it south!

Edit: 12z NAM

Just now, Buddy1987 said:

Is the 32k nam reliable in peoples opinions here compared to the 12k and 3k? I’m trying to figure out how much stock to put into it when looking at factors for Wed night/Thur such as 2m and 850 temps, etc..

32k nam is just the 12k nam at a lower resolution.

All NAM disclaimers aside, it has the ULL faster and slightly south of 6z.  Initial snowy, sleety mix for all then the usual spots stay cold through 54

5 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Heights lower out in front.  Should mean a further south ULL pass

So close

Heights lower out in front.  Should mean a further south ULL pass

I know it’s out of range but the ULL at 84 is further south...that’s the key to some parachutes in the deform.  Only talking 50 or so miles south with that feature.

18z GFS is a little quicker with the ULL into TN...

1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

Looking between the surface and 500 mb this is getting close to a very good solution for our region. 

 

 

 

Get that closed low on the VA/NC border and it’s game on

Euro at 96 looks awfully close to being pretty good for our western friends