LP08

All in until something better comes (which it won’t)

@WinterWxLuvr don’t look now...but a CLIPPER!

So back here?

I feel like we need a thread posted every year in Feb proving to people that it can actually snow in March in the city. It’s the same discussion every year. We struggle with marginal events in January so ofc they struggle in March. Get a legit pattern and storm and we won’t have any issues. Snow never sticks around down here anyway except in very rare circumstances.

There is nothing to lock any high in place. We are now and have been all winter at the mercy of perfect timing. Maybe we can time up the high and low down south perfectly for a snowstorm but my money is on “imperfect” timing.

Horrible You received .5 digital inches at 12z. You’re up to 1.5 now. Progress!

The energy crashing into the west coast at 96 is noticeably slower too, allowing our Sunday SW to dig in the TN valley.

GFS really amping the SW at 18z

Graphical EPS output. Not many show complete whiffs and a definite uptick of big storms.

Too add to the maps...a nice uptick on the EPS for Sunday.

Maybe I’m just in a pessimistic mood with how the season has gone. Let’s keep the Vort pass and let the chips fall where they may.

With nothing to stop the High from sliding off on approach, those south winds as it approaches really destroys the surface.

I normally would too but everything so far shows rain (especially for us near 95). Our high slides off and the cold isn’t necessarily “cold” leading in. Like you’ve been saying, any true deep cold airmass is hard to find this year.

Gfs again looks better at 5H for next Sunday...but surface temps are terrible.

I had money on the Chiefs but goodness gracious. If ever he had a team to just run it out, this was the one.

Why does Kyle Shannahan throw on the 2nd and 5 up 20-17? He’s a great coach but outsmarts himself in the biggest games.

It’s there if you select an elevated location. See below.

You can see it on soundings too.

OP at range but the EURO keeps progressing the ridge in the pacific east. Helps to keep the trough from dumping west. Maybe the ensembles can tease this as well.

Honestly I think the only thing that the ensembles have "missed" on in the longer range is being too robust at times with the -EPO. They have been pretty good on the Atlantic and artic. The broad trough we were seeing that would have worked out here was mostly due to spikes in the EPO region. It seems to me the GEFS has a tendency to spike an EPO ridge in the longer range which is causing its horrendous "cold bias" when in reality it just never materializes and we get no real displaced cold. I am not saying that the GEFS doesn't have a real cold bias I just think some of it is overblown due to the tendency to spike the EPO in the longer ranges.

#GirlDad

I really ruffled some feathers with my semi sarcastic GFS post....sorry!

I’m sure this time will be totally different

We lost power during the January storm last year and we still couldn't keep our 4 year old in the house. We went out after dusk as the last burst was coming through and walked around the neighborhood with every light off. It was spooky, quiet, and awesome.

Euro gets precip into the area on Friday from the coastal....mixy in a few spots.