weatherwiz

Thread is up for Saturday's fun!!!

An extremely anomalous set-up is projected for Saturday, May 9, 2020 as forecast models are in strong agreement in a piece of the PV breaking off and digging into New England resulting in likely record breaking 500mb heights which a tropopause level that's perhaps as low as 450-475mb! 500mb temperatures are forecast to as low as -35C to -40C which is unprecedented for the month of May. This will contribute to 700-500mb lapse rates which may exceed 8 C/KM. This coupled with sfc temperatures into the 40's and dewpoints in the 30's will be enough to generate some modest instability with ~500 J/KG of MLCAPE. What are we looking at? With any sun, this will further destabilize the atmosphere and this will result in numerous showers, snow showers (perhaps even snow squalls!!), grauple, and hail across the region. Snow accumulations will be possible in the higher elevations and there could even be grauple/hail accumulations as well as intensity of precipitation should be on the heavier side. Expect thunder and lightning too along with strong, gusty winds.

seems very likely. This threat looks fun enough to start a thread for it!!! One thread coming on up

Saturday could be pretty wild...some of the higher elevations may be able to pick up some minor accumulations. It's going to be crazy unstable aloft...lapse rates > 8. Hell, with thicknesses that low looks like the tropopause might not be much above 500mb.

Monday looks like a prime day for some cold pool hailers...along with Saturday but Saturday may be more grauple/snow

This is a decent look for EML advection. Maybe the final week of May/first week of June will be active...and of course THAT'S THE WEEKS MY FRIEND AND I CHASE BUT WE CAN'T THIS YEAR

We're getting closer!!!

Saturday has the look of convective showers with grauple/snow mixed in.

We shouldn’t be looking at snow maps in May...we should be looking at CAPE maps. Unbelievable. Like how is this possible??? Why does this have to happen?? Is this all related to that super late stratospheric warning event? We’ll probably have to wait until July at this point for severe wx. This sucks

What a crock of crap...this is absolutely absurd...pathetic. May as well just cancel severe wx season too...I mean everything else is cancelled. How fooking ridiculous we get this pattern now INSTEAD OF WINTER when it's supposed to happen. Biggest piece of junk I've ever seen. You can't get any more crap then this. WTF is going on?

Maybe we can get another cold pool summer like 2008

GFS pattern ugly for big severe virtually anywhere moving forward. Guess it's a good thing I can't go to OK lol

a batch of some heavy rain isn't far away from us

I was going to start a thread for this earlier in the week but never got to it. Was thinking there could be some small hail/gusty winds in stronger storms.

Agreed

My former professor would yell at you for that.

ehhh I would hedge on the caution of that. We are under the influence of an upper-level trough for much of the weak so with any heating we'll likely see clouds develop in the afternoon. There should also be at least a few days with scattered showers around given the fast/active flow.

SEVERE WEATHER SEASON IS HERE!!!!!! Welcome to May 1!!!!!!!!!! A HUGE milestone

WELCOME TO SEVERE SEASON!!!!!

Getting there!

ONE DAY!!!!

Not the start to May I was hoping for. Just praying and hoping that as the pattern does change we'll see a solid severe threat with it.

right on schedule!

2 MOTE DAYS!!!!