weatherwiz
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Well the strongest winds are about 1-3 hours away depending on where you live in the region. The strongest winds will likely occur just ahead of the line as it approaches...this is when mixing will be the strongest. Also the LLJ is maximized just south of the region now and core will overspread southern areas soon.
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Looks like a few overshooting tops??
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The RAP overlays ~500 m2s2 of effective helicity with 200 J of 3km CAPE...yup there definitely is potential for a strong tornado across NJ in a few hours
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Wow...yikes
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yeah same here. that is a good question
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Watching this rather closely. Even looks like some thinning ahead of it
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It will crank back up. Happened here too but it's going again. Wind probably took a nap
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Some of the latest trends with the HRRR make me think we could see tornado watch actually include Fairfield, Litchfield, Hartford, and New Haven Counties!!!
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Just had a roaring gust. 12:18 PM. Have to see what BDL reports for that but that had to be up around 50...maybe a few ticks higher
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yeah it's really beginning to crank here. Can certainly hear some roaring at times and it's not the planes!
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Watch this area of steeper 2-6km lapse rates. Should that expand into our area...should that happen power outages are going to sky rocket.
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Clouds thinning ahead of that dry slot. I think there is a chance we could see the tornado watch expanded into Fairfield County CT
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I haven't heard roaring like this since I watched Tiger King
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Tornado watch out to the southwest!!!
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Tornado Watch coming for parts of PA and NJ!!!!!!
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Agreed. And it won't take much either
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There's been some hints behind this initial activity there could be some breaks...or at least enough thinning to provide a boost in heating/mixing
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I think there is the chance someone along a line from SE CT to southern RI/southeast MA gusts to 80 later today. If convection is strong enough 85 is even a possibility.
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If that verifies later there are going to be significant issues to our southwest. Over 200 J of 3km CAPE with these dynamics. Waiting for the 12z observed sounding data to be available ughhh
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Prime example. BDL vs. HVN.
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I'm actually a bit surprised they didn't bring an enhanced risk into PA or NJ and a slight into SNE. I wouldn't be surprised to see a tornado watch go up to our southwest a bit later on and may extend into parts of CT. I could even argue for a small area of 10% TOR probs in SE PA.
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Noon and 4:00 PM though for eastern sections through about 6:00 PM. I think winds subside rather quickly behind the front though they will still remain rather gusty (35-40 mph).
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That's a really nice surge of instability ahead of the main line. Going to see a quite a bit of wind damage from that. Still quite concerned across SE PA and NJ. Two opportunities for severe weather. 1) With that main line in which I think they see widespread damaging winds with gusts 65-75...maybe even an 80 along with potential for an embedded tornado or two. 2) A very low probability for a few discrete supercells to form. Still think the potential exists for a strong tornado there
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I think there is a low probability for a strong tornado across SE PA or NJ. There is going to be a very narrow corridor...I mean very narrow of a rather impressive overlap of ingredients
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don't fly kites
