weatherwiz

the Euro is sooooooooo close with getting convection into here ughhhhh come on big boy

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its funny you think sarcasm is a foreign language.

it is if you don't understand it 

38 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Well if it's for work I don't pay out of pocket for one. AMS SLS at Stowe was $1000 week and 3 vacation days...

that's a good point...but yikes thats a bit of money 

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I do miss the days before clown maps. Focusing on the precip and midlevel temps/track made people think a little more about the model runs.

They should be banned from model output. 

11 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Now that I'm edging towards the middle of my career I find I rarely have time to learn anything new. It's hard to keep up. So it's nice when the learning something new is part of work instead.

I bet haha. Much easier and more fun 

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Sorry James, If your snowing i'm not, I'm stealing your snow.

Astros may be calling you for their managerial vacancy 

Just now, OceanStWx said:

I'm (hopefully) applying to a boatload of Hazardous Weather Testbed and Spring Forecast Experiment opportunities at OUN this spring, so let's rock. 

They're doing a radar applications course on new tornado and meso detection algorithms, a satellite applications course, a course on probabilistic warnings, and then the Spring Forecast Experiment which is more of a research to operations. 

That sounds pretty exciting!

I'm actually strongly considering pursuing masters in the fall...doing the online route at Mississippi State. Some of the classes offered look like a ton of fun 

1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said:

go for it, we need some juju

nahhhh I'm threaded out from the May 1 thread 

That threat is the perfect way to kick off a February discussion thread...

couldn't ask for a more perfect H7 or H85 track. *sigh* why you gotta be so far out

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

For most, possible. For Wizzy, it’s more likely during a rotating dark cloud with a rumble of thunder. 

and the lightning...can't have thunder without the lightning 

Could see grauple showers on the backside Sunday...grauple mixed with snow 

Just now, weathafella said:

Or a little pig to a pregnant sow?

everybody is getting pregnant these days 

Euro still shoots some sfc-based CAPE into southern New England!!!

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It was definitely consistent for 3-4 days a week to 10 days ago for this coming week and then it 180’d.  I think we need to see it get inside day 10 to be confident 

I wonder why when we seem to get inside a certain time frame we see these major flips...it certainly doesn't happen every time but it always seems like we get inside this magic number and poof...a complete 180 happens. 

Is it perhaps that everything is being sampled better? Perhaps its a parameterization  function (outside of a certain time range doesn't the parameterization schemes change?)? Or maybe its a type of bias resulting from the ensemble mean smoothing key features just a bit too much? 

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We say this every winter,  but eventually something works out. Persistence isn’t always the best way to forecast. 

climo  

Going to have to start looking into how the pattern is going to be come spring. I sure hope it's one that favors active severe wx in the Plains...if I go to OK and nothing happens I'm going to be a bit upset. 

10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Nice sunrise on the Gray NWS camera

wow that's pretty nice!

One hobby I want to get into is photography...I can't wait until the summer when we get the early sunrises and I get to watch the sun rise going into work...epic. I'm going to get a dash-cam too (mainly for storm chasing) but use it on mornings the sun rise will be epic. 

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Every model ensemble show a better pattern for the start of February.

Another head fake or finally a true change ?

When it's consistent for 3-4+ days then it can be considered a potential true change 

Well folks we are now under 100 days!!!

99 days to go!!!!

99 calendar days to go

99 calendar days to go

you rip a date down 

then its one less day to go!!!!

At least signal for elevated convection is still there 

We can always save this thread by turning it into a convective potential thread

2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

12z is still worse—warmer/further north, GFS likewise...

Terrible for down this way...and into central New England. At least up north gets smoked. 

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I don’t see that on 12z nam?

i see temps steady or rising at 0z Sunday as low drifts N near NYC throughout all of SNE 

northern New England 

10 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I’m unsure. But to me what’s important is Canada in general is torched but the only region showing negative Temp anomalies at 850 and surface is QC. Current guidance has that cold easily eroding but I don’t think that gets scoured so quickly/easily and instead we see a more pronounced CAD drain...

This is actually hinted at pretty well with the latest NAM