weatherwiz

Crazy stuff in New Mexico. Scary videos. This stuff is really heartbreaking to see. Rivers rising 20’ in as little as 30 minutes…wtf

7 minutes ago, WhiteLawns said:

You see my picture from Litchfield? The drop box link above.

WOW...thats a sick capture! Was there rotation at all?

Sea-breeze hasn't really made it far inland either? Seems to be confined right along the coast or just onshore. But we'll see what happens after 5-6 PM...nice blow up of convection across PA which could not only scrape southern sections of the region but yield additional development ahead of it

8 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Yep... Constant thunder here as it approaches 

Surprised they still have trees in Kent...they seem to get crushed all the time  

1 minute ago, FXWX said:

Report of Multiple trees and wires down in Kent CT... Also tree and wires down in Bantam..

 

Not shocked...looked like the core was right over Kent...was a beast

1 minute ago, Spanks45 said:

amazing how awful the hrrr has been so far today, most recent run has nothing in CT until after 2z.....

it's been horrific this entire warm season lol 

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Stuff heading into CT has it.

Was just looking at that...nasty looking cell with a good core

9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

with freezing levels at 14K   ?  

good luck

Pretty good hail CAPE in place. Perhaps the high levels result in alot of melting so any hail reaching the ground is pea to 0.50" but with MLCAPE ~2000 and mlvl lapse rates ~6 the more vigorous updrafts have a shot

Shear may be a bit too weak, however, I would not be surprised if we get some cells that drop 1" hail today.

4 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

What time do things get started today?

I wouldn't be surprised if we started to see some widely isolated stuff develop during the early afternoon but it's probably after 4-5 when we would really see stuff develop. The mesos are really all over the place so they probably won't be helpful today. My guess with this is because the forcing is on the weak side so it will be localized influences aiding in the development of convection (orographic, for example). Mesos do target along where the sea-breeze will be, but I think the degree of development along the boundary is underdone. In airmasses like today we tend to be active along it. 

Tomorrow should be interesting too. Again, not a tremendous amount of forcing but the NAM/GFS have a nice little speed max at 500 developing across the region which contributes to ~30 knots of bulk shear. Residual outflow boundaries from today could be a focus for tomorrow. May have to watch for convection to blossom overnight tomorrow with some better forcing approaching and adequate jet streak across the region. 

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

culturally it's usually provincials that put all their eggs in that one thing, after they've fed a vacation jar 5 bucks and change a day, just for that one cruise-line deal.  ...I think  don't they have 'budget cruises' with neat and tidy packages for those that don't come along with fuck you money? 

Not sure really...first time ever going and it was a gift from my girlfriends parents for her birthday this weekend. From my understanding though they aren't "terribly expensive"

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’m thinking central/northern CT has a good shot

same

Has anyone ever gone on a cruise this time of year...what are the odds of seeing distant lightning during the night? Really hoping to see some

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Congrats S CT to SE MA

It will be a bit more inland than that 

It is going to be quite active right along that sea breeze today. Today is a day where people scream bust because their backyard saw nothing, meanwhile you have a swath of flash flooding and localized wind damage 

We're going to see some flash flooding today

EDIT: should say more this evening 

3 minutes ago, tamarack said:

All true.  but . . .   My impressions came from the PoP being 70%, forecast precip .10-.25 and .25-.50 depending on location plus each amount included "more in thunderstorms".  Only 5 of the 102 cocorahs reports had more than 0.41" while the median report was 0.11".

I think precipitation amounts (as well as sky cover, wind, temperature) are just populated from a grid and there probably isn't much human manipulation in those point-and-click forecasts. I wish I could remember all this better because oceanstatewx has explained all this in great detail several times how this process works  . I think this is why you'll often see forecasts saying "mostly sunny" when it ends up being filtered sun behind high clouds...I know at least NBM does better with this but I believe MOS won't report or forecast clouds above like 10,000 feet (or 12,000 feet)? 

But for QPF amounts with convection, I would assume in the grid its just averaging whatever is falling within that grid and that's how it determines the ranges? But I also think oceanstate has said that the wording used in the forecasts is based on QPF totals and visibility? So showers versus heavy rain wording will be tied into the QPF range and with snow light versus say heavy is tied into rate/visibility. 

2 minutes ago, tamarack said:

AFDs will not infrequently add qualifiers like "heavy" or even "torrential" (have seen both from GYX).  Also, crying "wolf!" too often can lead to complacency.  GYX/CAR appropriately had both CWAs entirely in SVR-watches.  There were several warned storms and a lot of fierce-looking radar.  Only a handful if sites reported 1"", none over 1.5", and local cocorahs reports here were more like 0.12".  The ingredients were there, the watches posted, but the system underperformed.

ehh I don't think it's fair to say the system underperformed. I am assuming you are referring to July 3? Based on the reports received and on the SPC page, the watch certainly verified. Remember, there is nothing in the definition of a watch which measures or accounts for how widespread wind criteria/hail will be. The definition just relates to having ingredients favorable for thunderstorms to become strong to severe. 

But in terms of the rainfall, when it comes to thunderstorms things can become extremely localized and there just aren't enough reporting stations to fully capture what can/may be ongoing at a local level. For example, one town could get slammed under a thunderstorm and get 0.50"...0.75"...even 2" of rain while a town or two over just on the edge barely get 1/10th of an inch. 

Sometimes too with thunderstorms, it isn't about how much rain falls as much as it is about how much rain falls in an x amount of time. 0.75" of rain total may not be much but if that is falling in like 30 minutes...that could lead to some brief problems. 

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It seems like the timing is just a bit off too. If the remnants were plowing in a bit later tomorrow to sync with the front we’d really be in business. 

Yeah timing not particularly favorable and instability will gradually wane during the evening. Probably going to be another big nowcasting day...the mesos have been extremely awful here in terms of convection. Will have to do a good ole fashion synoptic analysis in the morning and try to highlight local boundaries...that's where we'll see convection probably fire early afternoon (albeit isolated). Shouldn't have an issue reaching the convective temp tomorrow. 

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

Maybe there’s a touch of a signal on the high res, but I wonder if it’s underestimated? Although Chantal’s remnants are a shell of what they were in NC, a boundary and tropical remnants are usually a good mix for heavy rains. 

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah thought about that. Some signs of decent rains just north of WF...but nothing terribly exciting as modeled. It's definitely a recipe for a quick 2-3"+ if it trains for 60-90 min.

Overall the forcing is on the weak side, but its going to be quite unstable so it will be interesting to see how the convection plays out. There are subtle height falls through the day too. One thing which I think could be a wildcard too is the mid-level lapse rates aren't as terrible as you would think given the setup. Usually in these setups we're dealing with mid-level lapse rates around 5.5 C/KM or even less...we could be around 6 tomorrow...that's still not great but it may be an added boost. 

You know what I've been thinking about...the term "showers" in say like scattered showers and thunderstorms or isolated showers and thunderstorms...showers doesn't even do it justice anymore. Need to start communicating them as downpours and thunderstorms. When you have dewpoints well into the 60's and especially 70's...these aren't just your regular showers anymore. 

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Doesn't look much much until late tomorrow into tomorrow evening. Maybe some elevated stuff tomorrow evening and overnight from the system lifting north from the Mid Atlantic.

Curious to see how widespread activity will be during that time frame...seems like there will be a weak west-to-east boundary within the region (maybe just a sea-breeze lifting north?) and that will be the focus for convection. Which if this pans out there will be a concern for flash flooding. Could see some training storms across northern CT into RI and probably just south of BOS. 

Tomorrow looks prime for multiple wet microbursts. I suspect we see an upgrade to slight at some point. 

17 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Wow, I just saw that the death toll in that Texas flood is over 80 now.  It’s crazy to have a death toll that high from flooding in a relatively small area. 
The water must’ve come in like a wall. 

Looking at some of those river gauges the rises were unimaginable...so many gauges that literally shot up like 20 feet in less than an hour. Absolutely horrific.