weatherwiz

Should at least see some thunder chances next week, great way to kick off first week of May.

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

things lookin' pretty good in the long range for warm enthusiasts ...

That might not be too terrible

Today kind of sucks to me, it's great to see crystal clear blue skies but it almost feels like a step backwards with how chilly it feels...even if standing in the Sun. 

My hands are freezing and my winter gloves are in the wash

Outside to play with the dog for a few and it is chilly. Even with full Sun and no win. Didn’t even feel a blast of warmth when going from shade into the Sun. 

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Most of the stuff is just busting balls anyways. But there’s definitely a board bias to hype up an 18 hour cold shot and then meh a stretch of like +15 days.

There is definitely biases in most directions, but like you said, it's all mostly in good fun. When there is something noteworthy to track or on the horizon everyone knows how to reel it in and get serious...mostly lol.

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Looking forward to water season so much. Been having a lot of dreams of big surf. You are correct when it's 95/75 in the city and I am sitting on the beach with 78/65 with a steady onshore breeze it's a different world just 30 miles away from each other. Let's all enjoy the COC season you love. The longer the COC the better. 

One of the beauties of our region. If you want a break from the high heat/humidity during the summer you don't have far to go.

28 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Why can’t we just call a spade a spade on here in the warm season?  lol.

Sometimes it’s cold, sometimes it’s hot.

8 months of this forum is like a team sport that you need to pick sides, and the other 4 months are bitching about winter .

I know it's all mostly said in good fun but it's mostly using backyard obs to justify the overall picture. 

For example, poster A could live in a location where it is 87 and say its hot and and summer is here. Poster B may live in a location (higher elevation, coastal, woods) where it is only 71 and say its cool, where is summer?

So who is correct? They're each correct per their location, but the overall picture, its more than likely a warmer pattern in place but where poster B lives there is local influences going on. 

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It will be colder tonight than last night.

    ... there is no argument

I was under the impression from the discussion the past few days that the focus on the cold was Wednesday night versus Thursday night. 

You could argue some locations could be colder tonight versus last night. 

went outside to play with the dog for a bit after the 1st. It was definitely a winter feel with the wind. 

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Some of the other guidance have been on and off with a pretty significant BD early Monday so...   just be leery, tis the time of year -

The flow over eastern Canada/Maritime isn't ideal for heat here - as is modeled...   It's tending to curved field orientation.  We want that zonal or we risk the NE fisting

Certainly a concern. 

I've been debating whether it is the warm front getting hung up, warm front washing out and transitioning to a BDCF, or just a BDCF which dominates WF progression.

Looking outside I can see TCUs popping up. Gotta admit...its making me a little tingly 

2 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

Euro looks amazing next Mon - Wed, widespread 75-80+

Tuesday could feel like an early summer day ahead of the cold front with dews perhaps into the lower 60's

52 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

A 360hr blizzard is 100 times more likely to verify.

21 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Try this

https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/headlines/

Thanks!

@dendrite what's the link for the error bias for temperatures? 

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Point was we’re probably staying mixed. If anyone actually radiates in the valleys, like the Xmas trees in Fakersville, it could get ugly. 

ahh gotcha, agreed. 

Just now, dendrite said:

There’s going to be wind Wed night. CAA sub 32s. 

I was wondering how much CAA would factor in. I looked quickly but it seemed like the strongest CAA was moreso during the day than at night? I don't know if it's worth it or not to see how they fare across portions of Wisconsin/Michigan tonight, if anything just a general idea of how they performed in relation to guidance. Looks like the brunt of the airmass though arrives more from Canada. 

Wouldn't be surprised if the high terrain of northern Vermont picks up a few inches of snow tomorrow.

Looks like 12z guidance ticked a few degrees warmer for tomorrow night? At least across a few locations. I guess it is all going to come down to if we maintain enough of a wind to keep things mixed. 

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Maybe because winter blew salty balls, but I’ve been enjoying April. We’ve had some nice days and it provides a path to completely forget the past winter.

Agreed, but I can understand this is highly dependent on where you are within the region. We've certainly had some crummy days but we've had a share of very pleasant ones as well. But I get that hasn't been the case for everyone. 

Well it's hard to believe we are one week away from the beginning of severe weather season. Lots happens as we move through the first few weeks of May, plan life blossoms, the Bruins/Celtics make deep payoff pushes, the Red Sox be the Red Sox, and the weather warms and we even sneak in some humid days at times. We also turn our attention to the convective side and monitor for severe chances.

A wonderful gift may be in store as forecast models indicate a strong shortwave trough traversing the Northeast region next Tuesday with unseasonably warm temperatures out ahead of it and perhaps a surge of higher dewpoints with the advection of rich theta-e air. If this potential continues, a thread can be made down the road.

For now, let's focus on the arrival of May as we make the push towards summer! 

The first few weeks of May have potential to be quite warm, however, we have to watch as there are some indications an omega block pattern could evolve and of course we always have to keep an eye on for backdoor cold fronts. 

11 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

I find there are two sets of people in New England, those who want to move south for the warmer weather and those who want to move further north for the peace and quiet. While living in a warmer climate had its advantages, you do get sick of 90+ temps and 70+ dews for 6-8 months straight. 

I know it's easy for me to say I wouldn't but maybe I would. I think I would be totally fine with that and then to change it up maybe deal with 3 months of winter like weather with snow.

Someone had mentioned this but looks like we could see some thunderstorm around tomorrow. Too bad dewpoints aren't even another 10F higher given the lapse rates. 

35 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Our AN weather in winter hasn’t translated to early spring. It’s like 6 months of mid to late March. 
 

Seeing how easily we freeze at night is a real spectacle on April 22 + after mid January taking an alignment of the stars to see a low below 35.

 

April just reminds us all of how bad our climo is for outdoor activities, generally…

 

But people are paying up to live here…Less snow but not less shit…

 

I’m finding my ticket out. Fentanyl weather is for the birds. Life is short.

It really does suck. Let's face it, the only people who enjoy winter in New England are those invested in weather or those who like to ski or snowboard. Outside of this, winter is generally depressing with the short days and dark by 4:30. It then takes forever to enter a weather pattern where we're consistently warm and not have to worry about whether outdoor activities will be ruined (minus thunderstorm chances). 

With both my parents gone and the ability now to work remotely, I am strongly considering at some point re-locating down South. I still have family up here but my girlfriend's family and parents are mostly in Florida. I can always come up this way to visit. 

I've even considered something like living in Florida from March - May and then September-November and then here from June-August. Just thoughts though...not sure if they will ever become serious enough to act upon but it seems like seasonal depression gets worse every year.