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Posts posted by weatherwiz

  1. 12 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

    Late 70's aerosmith couldn't be that strung out looking. There's no defined low level center at all that I see.


    That is certainly lacking.

    It was more just in jest how this season there have been a few others named which were complete garbage looking. Remember the one that was named and like 3 hours later dissipated LOL

  2. What products can you look at to analyze eddy momentum fluxes and and flux convergences? I know I've seen some graphics out there. If you wanted to relate Rossby Wave Breaking and its impact on eddy momentum flux is that something you just visualize based on looking at 500 vort?

  3. 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

    Thanks Wiz,Just another weenie who loves the tech details of the weather.  The meteotsunami stuff really interests me too. Lets hope we dont have a major slow moving coastal the week of the 29th, tides are huge and the current is super strong.

    Also was supposed to say king not kind :lol: 

    But yeah...the period is highly intriguing and there is some historical correlation with that date (very similar to the period centered around 05/31 with siggy severe in the Northeast). There has been some pretty decent consistency in the PNA becoming more positive while the NAO becomes a bit more negative..good signal for something.

    We'll see if it leads to a prolonged pattern change too...not so sure its very prolonged but way too early and too much uncertainty to speculate on that.  

  4. Something I've really began to notice (especially the past several years) is how often tornado wording gets tossed around on *surprise* *surprise* social media every time we see a low pressure, triple point, or warm front set-up over the area. I totally get these can produce and "you never know" but the word gets tossed around so much people probably just disregard it. We're at a point now where there is enough research, coupled with meteorological knowledge, to have an idea of what variables and combination of variables must be present to truly warrant that risk. Yesterday in my opinion had like a 1%....probably even less chance of producing a it really even worth mentioning it for odds that are so low? 

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  5. Just now, purduewx80 said:

    There were quite a few 60+ mph gusts on LI behind the low, including a 76 at Breezy Point and 83 at Stony Brook (both of those obviously need to be checked for accuracy), but it lines up with what a lot of models were showing in a narrow corridor. 

    Oh wow...totally missed those. That's pretty dang impressive. Winds were about that strong not far from the sfc so they seem reasonable. 

  6. Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

    You’re a good soul. We need more like you but ones who can gather themselves quicker in the morning so they aren’t running late...but just the thought in itself, is a good deed. 

    Although garbage cans tipped over makes it easier for the animals to eat...bears, raccoons, and other creatures need to eat too 

  7. Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

    Remember folks, it’s not over yet. HWW in effect for many today. Remain on guard and ready to help others in any way you can. We can do this.

    I saw garbage cans and recycling cans flipped over on the way to the highway this morning...considered stopping to pick them up but I was running late and y commute is an hour. 

  8. 9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

    Mm ...sounds like some storm-interpretive 'over-selling' going on in here, too... :)    

    The most exciting aspect about this, relative to our "storm climatology," is that it happened at all. The run up to this thing was uniquely prepping the locals for histrionics because it's like the first 90 F day in June ? It seems reDICulously hot?  Same affect.  It came upon the region during an otherwise dearth of activity, a time in which folks had gotten a bit stirred by withdrawal symptoms ( kidding there...) But either way, a tad anxious for anything at all to happen - 

    Look, we've had big rain and/or wind events in storms of lore and past. Plenty that exceeded this thing's impact and how many of them can one name ?  Damage is too sporadic and within expectations for an average New England blow. I'll let all the final reports wonder in before making a final assessment but this event is not that memorable to me, not between northern and central Mass.  

    Also - imho - the low pressure descended to 973 mb over SW NH is a record:  that is more a function of 'first time' in that location - and has to be a spatial anomaly more than anything else.. because there are many 970 mb lows in CT/RI and eastern MA in the records...  Because of that spatial idiosyncrasy, that doesn't really reflect any enormity of the cyclone its self - so using that to justify this as something more I don't believe is entirely, objectively fair. 

    I'll be fair and say it was more than completely uninspired, insipid and dull - which is the formal-esque definition of pedestrian.. but heh.. not by much when comparing it to everything I've ever experienced between Chicago and Maine. 


    Great post..especially with regards to the spatial anomaly discussion. 

    The system was certainly anomalous (defining this by 500 height anomalies as well as other anomalies involved), however, the output was not completely anomalous when you compare the output to the product responsible for the output. 

  9. 17 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

    There was obviously a CAA and isallobaric boost, but I don't think you can definitively say it wasn't a sting jet when looking at both radar data and WV imagery. BDL winds didn't gust until after 06Z/2AM when this feature was moving through behind the sfc low.



    If it were a sting jet though wouldn't we have seen a period of anomalous gusts? (Gusts that were much higher than the mean over a period of time?) If as that went through and there was a swath of gusts like 65-70+ mph I think you could certainly argue sting jet...but the magnitude of the gusts don't seem to be much of an outlier of what was experienced with the CAA and pressure rises. 

  10. 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

    But they said no winds .. no stinger . It roared all night. Many gusts 50+

    That had absolutely nothing to do with a stinger...not even remotely close. 

    Take a look at BDL's hourly obs...the winds began to crank as they switched to N and then NW. It roared all night b/c the winds shifted right around midnight...which is exactly what some of us said. 

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