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Posts posted by weatherwiz

  1. That is one impressive LLJ modeled to traverse CT/RI/SE MA afternoon into the evening. The core of the LLJ max too also arrives while we still have some daylight so that will help with winds too (some better mixing). Then towards evening you get an impressive surge of CAPE...even some very weak surface based CAPE...but you get any sfc based CAPE in this environment and you're going to get winds. T'storms should have potential to produce 70 mph wind gusts. I think you'll see quite a bit of power outages tomorrow 

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  2. Really no thread on this???

    Looks like ingredients will align on what should amount to a fairly widespread severe weather event with damaging winds and perhaps a few isolated tornadoes from the mid-Atlantic through southern New England. Forecast models really hinting at a rather impressive surge of instability with very strong dynamics. While we will also have a temperature inversion to contend with, there should be strong non-convective wind gusts as well (30-40 mph). Scattered power outages, flash flooding, and damaging winds all in the cards for tomorrow.

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  3. Just enough 3km CAPE poking into the Cape with more than enough shear for a possible tornado. Also, check out the rapid increase in lightning just prior to the tightening couplet. Sometimes that can be a tell take sign for potential tornado genesis 

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  4. 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

    Yeah I’m not buying first week of December. Too early imho as the air masses are putrid. I mean, anything is possible with perfect timing but I don’t think you are going to get the source region in better shape until post-12/5

    It's just not a good look that first week for any meaningful cold. Even though the AO/NAO do head negative, it looks like that is driving by some higher height anomalies poking into the southern part of those domains which isn't really favorable for us. Even if we had higher heights into the PNA region I don't think that does much to help given the lack of cold. But yeah, after 12/5 or around that time frame the Pacific looks a bit better with teleconnection support to drive some cold into if we can keep a theme going of higher heights into the West maybe mid-December we'll have a shot. 

  5. 4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

    Gonna take some time though to reload Canada. First week of December will probably be a furnace across the CONUS even if we’re starting to see some changes in the PAC. 

    Twitter world is starting to go crazy about the first week of December but after what we've learned from last year there is a helluva lot more than just the pattern "looking good". When you look at the forecast H5 height anomalies I actually expected much more of a colder look at the sfc but that just doesn't seem to be there. It does look like we'll get a brief cold shot but that is behind the system . Also too many hints for cyclogenesis to be fairly far west but that is something that can certainly change. 

  6. Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

    We had a major damaging severe wx event Sunday night, and you were nowhere to be seen. Many were very worried . You and Slot with Covid

    It's been a bit rough...stressed with work and my girlfriend and I broke up a few weeks ago. I was actually going to make a thread here last Thursday or Friday for Sunday but forgot. I was down in Bethel for the event and the winds were quite strong...I would estimate gusts were easily 50-60 mph. 

  7. 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

    Angry? Lol move your  vehicles out of the road, or is your garage still stacked to the rafters with tires and old auto parts? Epic band setting up


    Too bad it's moving on the quick side and the best fronto is starting to lift out.