Floydbuster

The models really seem set on a potential significant late season Caribbean hurricane in a week or so. Something to watch carefully.

I still think 980 mb is pretty strong, and the outflow of 94L would be dominating against Humberto.

I am skeptical of the GFS showing a strengthening dangerous hurricane over the Bahamas suddenly being sucked into Humberto. If it were just a wave, sure...but if 94L is a well established hurricane by that time, I highly doubt that it just gets sucked away.

This is a very interesting setup. Here is an evening video update.

Meh as of now I still think there is a high likelihood both remain out at sea, although the Bahamas and Bermuda could be close.

Some of the accounts on weather platforms are getting too caviler and cocky in their eyerolls about the GFS. We are in August during what should be a favorable MJO phase and *unlike last year* models show a ton of activity in the coming weeks. The fact that model runs from the GFS to the EURO have shown significant hurricanes after mid August is very troublesome, especially since they have been consistent. Be ready, it is on the way.

I think we see a major hurricane in the Atlantic sometime later this month, and likely a threat to land masses of the Caribbean or Western Atlantic. The MJO pattern looks set to give us a good burst just in time for late August.

I remember the long range GFS making a monster hurricane every run. One into Miami. One into New York City. The end result? Hurricane Dean, Cat 5 landfall in Yucatan. Not every long range GFS run is fantasy, especially when it is August and you have consistency run to run showing something developing. The track may be unknown, but something happening becomes more and more likely.

I think things may turn on the next couple of weeks in the Atlantic. The long range ensembles look nasty, some showing hurricane landfalls in the Gulf or Florida east coast, and the wind shear is looking more and more favorable. This could all culminate during a positive phase of the MJO.

I am a little surprised the tsunami waves are so small given the size of the quake and the shallow depth.

Rest in Peace, Mr. Burns.

I wonder if this season will be like 1998, 1999, 2004, 2017. Normal slow June and July and then the real activity starts in August. The last several seasons have had some oddball stuff like strong July activity, slow August activity, and prolonged Cape Verde activity into October.