MGorse

It certainly looks and feels like snow is on the way, but then looking at the radar it does look all that impressive. 

I noticed the HRRR and the NAM/NAM nest narrowing the precipitation shield especially farther south like in the Philly metro area with it completely ending faster south of there. Radar trends so far seem to be showing that evolution so far. Time will tell. 

The NAM was heavy on the sleet with the last storm which was overdone. Let’s see if that repeats with this storm later today and tonight. 

Picked up 0.10 inches of ice due to freezing rain and also a trace of sleet. Next!

2 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Well then, that's a whole different story. 

13F DP in North Wales. 

Virga is highly annoying...may be in my top five pet peeves.

Yup, nothing like seeing precipitation on the radar overhead for awhile yet you keep looking out at the porch light and see no snow. 

1 minute ago, Birds~69 said:

Best thing to do if you're up, check the radar and locations nearby and see if they're reporting snow. You'll get a estimate what to expect when it arrives in your area. 18 dew point isn't too bad. There are times when it's in single digits where I worry,..

PHL's dew point is at 12F as of 8 PM. Mount Pocono's dew point is sitting at 7F.

The 00z Dulles/Sterling RAOB (sounding) already shows a decent layer of above freezing air aloft. It is not above freezing by much but it is there. This likely is not as warm aloft farther northeast yet along with much drier air. 

The dew points are certainly low. It will be interesting to see what happens overnight and early Thursday morning as the initial cooling occurs with the onset of the precipitation while the warm air advection strengthens the warm layer aloft. It will be a battle!

36 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

Anyone planning to buckle up?

Tray tables up and fasten seatbelts.  

57 minutes ago, RedSky said:

18z happy hour GFS went colder on the weekend storm and smokes us next week 

All aboard the GFS train. 

The 18z NAM has quite the 700-850 mb FGEN forcing resulting in that initial focused band of heavier snow. 

37 minutes ago, anthonyweather said:

So much for 50 degrees today.. wtf. 38 here 

Who or what was forecasting 50 degrees today in the Poconos?

0.54 inches of rain here. 

This rain is much needed, but also great to see the layers of salt finally washed away. 

Anyone have a Blizzard Warning today for southwestern Louisiana on their bingo card?

6 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

Lol, one more gray hair?

Definitely more than one.

I am glad this storm is over.

Snow is really coming down at the Eagles game. Nice! 

3 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Mike - sorry if I've been a little testy, but it's frustrating to not know what you guys are thinking and that 7 pm onward map on the winter weather page without having any updated event snowfall graphic there is very confusing to many, I'm sure.  Maybe they could add the event total graphic to that page.  

The storm total is right on the winter page. This is what I see when I go to my offices winter page…

4 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

apparently we arent allowed to question things

You can all you want. I am here to try and clarify. Bitching here won’t get your feedback to where it needs to be. 

3 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

It's super cranking, trying to watch the Birds and the snow at the same time. My head/brain may explode...

Trouble multitasking? 

6 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

um nobody looks at things like that...certainly not the public..extremely confusing to put a map like that up...and considering the 4-6 looks to bust anyhow for hillsborough, trenton and philly..philly getting 4-6..wow

Send the feedback to my office. Bitching about it on here won’t do a damn thing! 

1 minute ago, RU848789 said:

Thanks, Mike, but you guys have to fix this ASAP as the winter weather page shouldn't show that map and the advisory for Middlesex now says 1-3" of "additional" snow when we haven't gotten any yet.  1-3" of additional snow certainly doesn't get us to an event total of 4-6" in the graphic above or the original 3-5" WWA wording.  It's all very confusing and I still don't know what the forecast is.

There is nothing to fix. Read the times on the map. The storm total is on our winter page with winter weather headlines posted. The “additional snow” is in the text products when the forecaster chooses to do that especially when how much snow fell so far in areas is unknown (I tend not to agree with this as the storm total should still be included). Also, always check your local Point and Click forecast for the most updated amounts. 

19 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

WTF is Mt. Holly doing? Who would issue a map starting 3 hours for now at 7 pm?

That goes by the next synoptic time which now is 00z/7PM. Here is the one that is the total from 1 PM. 
 

Quite the interesting storm so far. I have snow flakes, snow grains and graupel all coming down at the same time. Surfaces coated up quickly. 32F 

5 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Just for giggles, given the increase in snowfall for many models, as well as the broader coverage with more snow and less rain from 95 SE to the coast (at least north of Toms River), I'm expecting the NWS to continue increasing snowfall totals. I'd go for 4-6" within 10-20 miles of 95 from Philly to NYC and for Monmouth County N of 195, with 2-4" for almost all of the rest of NJ, except maybe 1-2" for most of Cape May County and the NJ coast up to LBI. I would also keep the 6-8"+ area NW of 95, but probably move the 6" line SE 10-15 miles to maybe West Chester to New Hope to White Plains and I would have all of LI at 4-6", except eastern Suffolk at 3-4".

My guess is that this would mean warnings for the 95-adjacent counties from Philly/SNJ up through NYC and probably advisories for Mommouth, Ocean, SE Burlco and maybe Cumberland, but not Atlantic/Cape May; guessing LI might be 4-6" advisories but not warnings, but close call (like for Middlesex/Mercer, where warning criterion is 6" vs. 4" for counties south of 276/195, so the warnings would make sense for SEPA/SNJ.  Been wrong before on guessing NWS moves before, but I find it fun to guess. 

Warning criteria for that area is 5 inches (that was changed from 4 inches several years ago).