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MGorse

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    Snowfall NYC subforum Jan 6 and OBS if needed

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, wdrag said:

    Sure.  You can do all the Severe.  My fingers don’t work as quickly as yours and my severe detection is not up to snuff   Keep me posted 

    And you were not the only one at PHI to push the envelope on alerting. We have made some progress on that but still work to be done. Not an easy task either when staffing keeps changing. 

    • Like 3

    Snowfall NYC subforum Jan 6 and OBS if needed

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    1 minute ago, RU848789 said:

    Enough said, thanks.  My one comment for the author of that AFD would be to perhaps address the NBM/precip inconsistency, especially given how often the NBM is invoked by the NWS as a major aid in forecasts.  

    That inconsistency has been noticed by some NWS field offices, but I am not aware of where that stands. In my opinion if something like this NBM stuff is referenced in things like AFDs then some added info should be included to provide more context of that data. The deterministic NBM is bias corrected (60 days I believe) which results in a lag especially during pattern changes. Still not all that sure why a blend of models has a bias correction applied. 

    • Like 1

    Snowfall NYC subforum Jan 6 and OBS if needed

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    2 hours ago, RU848789 said:

    Interesting that the NBM snowfall forecast bumped up for 07Z vs 01Z last night and yet the NWS-Philly is clearly downplaying the event potential north of Philly, as per the part I bolded below, when they often follow the NBM for snow events.  Maybe they're going by the WPC precip forecast and not the NBM snowfall forecast...

    @MGorse- any comments on this apparent disconnect?  Just trying to figure out what you guys are thinking, thanks...

    National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ

    401 AM EST Thu Jan 2 2025

    LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

    Guidance from a synoptic standpoint is depicting a Miller B
    nor`easter to develop with an upper level trough swinging a
    surface low from west to east across the KY/TN area before
    redeveloping as a low pressure system offshore Monday. Ensemble
    guidance is split into 2 different clusters with the variance
    generally explained by how strong the upper level ridge will be
    over Quebec. This boils down into two scenarios, one with a more
    northern track bringing snow towards the RDG/TTN/PHL, and one
    with a more southern track keeping the snow more over the DC
    area. The more northern stream track relies on a weaker high and
    thus develops a bit more cyclogensis over our region thus
    lifting the band of 2-4 inches of snow further north, whereas in
    the southern track, the high is stronger and displaces the
    surface low to the south more leading to most of the area seeing
    little in the way of snow.

    01Z/02 NBM generally is taking a blend of the two scenarios thus
    leads to probabilities similar to the 13z/01 NBM with snowfall
    greater than 1 inch is 60 to 80 percent across southern New
    Jersey, the Delaware Valley including Philadelphia, and the
    eastern shores of Maryland and Delaware while the probability of
    snowfall greater than 3 inches is 40 to 50 percent. North of
    Philadelphia, probabilities lower to 30 to 50 percent for
    greater than 1 inch of snow and 20 to 30 percent for greater
    than 3 inches of snow.

    For the time behind will continue to show a blend of the two
    tracks but anticipate that the gradient of snowfall will sharpen
    quickly somewhere north of Philadelphia over the coming runs
    depending on how guidance handles the upper level ridge. While
    it is still too soon to tell how much snow will fall, the trend
    looks to be for advisory level snowfall for Delmarva, sub-
    advisory amounts for southeast New Jersey and the Delaware
    Valley, and minimal amounts north of Philadelphia.

    image.gif.7107d48f71403fa8b93e14a1e02284ce.gif

    wpc_qpf_120h_p.us_ma.png

     The NBM is not the greatest guidance many times and I will leave it at that.

    • Like 7
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    Snowfall NYC subforum Jan 6 and OBS if needed

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    1 hour ago, wdrag said:

    Agree 100%.  NWS general field office approach differs from NHC.  It's definitely not my approach to well advertised multi modeling.  

    NWS was pretty happy to see me go, at least at field level where I was generally pushing the envelope to get alerting going. I thought LWX was advanced in leading these winter situations as NHC in tropical. 

    Automation will end this personal - institution conservative approach...  it has to be coming as progress is made.  These AMWX discussions will become moot I think in a few years, at least inside 7 days...  presuming the monies are available for research, platform improvement and processing.  Then I can sleep later.

    Right now, reliably accurate interpreting voices are needed to get planning considerations on the table, sooner than saying nothing. I

    You want to come back? We are still short staffed! 

    • Like 4
    • Haha 1
    • 100% 1
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    E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2024/25 Obs/Discussion

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, BBasile said:

    Maybe.  I don't have a clear view out to 1,320 feet, but I did take my drone up and I couldn't see RT 42 in Washington Township, which is about 800 ft away.  

    Observations under that enhanced area of snow on the radar are no where near 1/4 mile in snow. It is snowing pretty good under that here at the office, but visibility is above 1 mile.

    • Like 1
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    E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2024 Obs/Discussion

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    3 hours ago, Albedoman said:

    Thaks Mike but a case in point? what if numerous lighting strikes were around? Would that enhance the probability of rapid fire spread as well? I know red flag warnings are for high wind but what about other natural weather features like lighting have any effect on issuing a red flag warning.  It almost seems that the ignition sources and their amounts must have a play in this somewhere for issuing red flag warnings. 

    Lightning, at least in our area, does not really start most wildfires especially since we typically don’t deal with dry lightning. The majority of fires around here are caused by humans. 

    • Like 2

    E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2024 Obs/Discussion

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    53 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

    from the drought guy.  This a first for me guys  please foward this to MT Holly. How dry is it?  Enough low humidity to intiate spontaneous combustion. Red flag warnings really should be issued again MT Holly. This came as an alert to me a few minutes ago. 

     

    Hello Lower Macungie Township Residents,
    The yard waste recycling center located at 5536 Indian Creek Road will be closed today, Friday November 15th.  The mulch pile is currently emitting spontaneous flames and in order to maintain public safety, the site will be closed for the day.  We sincerely apologize for the inconvenience.
     

     

     

     

    NWS Mount Holly knows how dry it is, and the Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for Saturday. As a reminder/FYI, the NWS fire weather products are for rapid fire spread and not for fires starting.

    • Like 2
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