MGorse

5 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Just for giggles, given the increase in snowfall for many models, as well as the broader coverage with more snow and less rain from 95 SE to the coast (at least north of Toms River), I'm expecting the NWS to continue increasing snowfall totals. I'd go for 4-6" within 10-20 miles of 95 from Philly to NYC and for Monmouth County N of 195, with 2-4" for almost all of the rest of NJ, except maybe 1-2" for most of Cape May County and the NJ coast up to LBI. I would also keep the 6-8"+ area NW of 95, but probably move the 6" line SE 10-15 miles to maybe West Chester to New Hope to White Plains and I would have all of LI at 4-6", except eastern Suffolk at 3-4".

My guess is that this would mean warnings for the 95-adjacent counties from Philly/SNJ up through NYC and probably advisories for Mommouth, Ocean, SE Burlco and maybe Cumberland, but not Atlantic/Cape May; guessing LI might be 4-6" advisories but not warnings, but close call (like for Middlesex/Mercer, where warning criterion is 6" vs. 4" for counties south of 276/195, so the warnings would make sense for SEPA/SNJ.  Been wrong before on guessing NWS moves before, but I find it fun to guess. 

Warning criteria for that area is 5 inches (that was changed from 4 inches several years ago).

13 minutes ago, Prairie Dog said:

Yep Mike!   30.7 here with freezing fog   On a side note, I notice Mt Holly upped my location to 3 to 7, from 2 to 4.  Still just a winter weather advisory. 

The evening shift made some adjustments to the snowfall totals. We will have another go at here on the overnight shift.

Geez, the clouds really cleared out this evening across much of the area and that resulted in fog/freezing fog in some areas. This also resulted in a much faster drop to the temperatures. Dew points have dropped a lot as well. Was not expecting the lack of clouds and fog. 

The 00z 3km NAM still has a strong 850 mb FGEN band from about the I-95 corridor eastward Sunday afternoon to early evening. The 700 mb FGEN is farther north and west so nice tilt to the lift. This could get very interesting.

1 minute ago, Violentweatherfan said:

Mike how much QPF is lost before the changeover, any idea 

Have not had a chance to look that closely, sorry. 

19 minutes ago, Blue Dream said:

WWA for 2-4” in Lower Bucks. I can see that busting high. 

Could bust low given some of the snowier solutions. 

3 hours ago, snowwors2 said:

Any updated thoughts, Mike, on why lower bucks was/is left out of the WSWatch attm⁉️

Asking for a friend (no really)‼️

9 minutes ago, snowwors2 said:

 

To my point…

What gives….Mike G.⁉️

Not sure (I have been off from work), but based on the snowfall forecast map it should be included in my opinion. 

9 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Light snow 25.2f humidity 84% dew point 21f

Total snow now at 0.8"

Total for the year 5.93"

I am going to have to go out and shovel between periods watching the Flyers. 

It will melt tomorrow. 

0.3 inches with pixie dust coming down at the moment. 

A dusting now. Very light snow continues. 

Nice mood flakes here but no accumulation. 

5 minutes ago, Blue Dream said:

Really hope it doesn’t nail the storm next week. A soaking rain after a week of frigid temperatures would be a kick in the nuts 

Rain is needed though given the ongoing drought. 

34 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

It crashed my Commodore 64.

Come on now, that computer back in the day was sweet! 

12 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Gurantee that sharp cut off down in central Delaware and South Jersey will be right through my backyard in central Delaware County.

You can lock that in! 

30 minutes ago, Voyager said:

I got exactly 2 inches in Tamaqua.

Not bad at all. 

15 minutes ago, penndotguy said:

I’m in Western Berks I got .3 myself 

Less than your anticipated 0.5 inches. 

The 0.3 inches of snow I got vanished rapidly by mid-morning. Looks like some of the guidance that was hinting at a bit more snow (1 to near 2 inches) across parts of eastern PA panned out.

I had a period of snow grains a little while ago while shoveling and it put down a fresh coating. Came in and looked at the radar and was like well now. Snowing decently under that as it moves my way? 

41 minutes ago, Lady Di said:

Saying this nicely, but we weren't even close to warning criteria despite being issued one.

Yup, that certainly did not pan out.

42 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

So another overhyped storm for SE PA by local TV news outlets? 

I thought the NWS Mount Holly @MGorse did a great job tho.

We try our best.

1.8 inches at PHL as of 1 PM.

1 hour ago, Violentweatherfan said:

It’s gotta be an intern running the GFS and just having a good laugh. 

My bad, hit the wrong button. 

3 minutes ago, penndotguy said:

Man I’m watching that radar the northern precipitation shield seems to be drying up as it moves east into west Va, would be hilarious if it ran the Mason Dixon line 

At least some of the models have been showing that as the precipitation shield initially runs into a much drier air mass. It will saturate, give it time. 

58 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said:

Would it be strong enough to overcome the dry air from the confluence.

It is possible, but it also may just tighten the northern gradient from snow to no snow.