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MGorse

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    Philly Area Banter

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    On 2/5/2024 at 3:18 PM, JTA66 said:

    I haven’t been paying attention but sounds like KYW is back with AccuWx? I heard Joe Lundberg today.

    Yeah I noticed that a couple of weeks ago. I am not sure when they returned to KYW.

    E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2023-2024 OBS/Discussion

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    4 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

    As others have said a long way to go...plus with all of the moving pieces like the upper level lows still being off in the pacific....as Bernie Rayno says - windshield wiper effect for the next few days. Expect the GFS to go way north at 12z and then the Euro to come south....neither of course will be validation. All in all an active pattern but not one that is sure to deliver snow.

    Looks like the 12z GFS did not go way north.

    • Like 2

    January 19, 2024 Powder Snow Event

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    3 hours ago, 21chuck said:

     Feels like Mt Holly really nailed it - wonder if anyone could tell me what they saw that no one else could? 

    Overall a period of deeper lift within the dendritic snow growth zone (boosting the fluff factor), thermal column cooling once the snow started (initially surface dew points were in the low to mid teens), and going with higher snow to liquid ratios (about 12:1 to 17:1). 
     

    Looks like we were on the high side particularly for some areas near and north of I-78, and on the low side across parts of northeast MD into southern DE. Overall to me this was not a classic norlun trough as there was no real heavier focused band of snow aligned parallel to the surface/inverted trough. There was synoptic lift that in conjunction with the surface trough resulted in a wider area of 4-6 inches of snow. 

    I hope everyone enjoyed the snow. I will enjoy my weekend off as it has been a long week. 

    • Like 7
    • Thanks 5
    • Weenie 1

    E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2023-2024 OBS/Discussion

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

    for those who do not know:

     

    1. Winter storm warnings were issued for those areas where the 5 in snowfall criteria for issuing the warning has been met in the models. Unfortunately Montgomery/Bucks  county were split down the middle with the existing WSW snowfall criteria levels for winter storm warnings. This is one scenario where me and the NOAA do not agree on.  One inch snow accumulation difference in a metropolitan area  of nearly 1-2 million people  like the LV and northern Montgomery/Bucks county (more population than many states)  does not make sense whatsoever . I hope they revise the winter weather advisories to WSW warnings and issue one for the northern Montgomery/Bucks county and the LV, especially since they calling for 8 in in the point forecast for Macungie PA and the criteria is 6 in. This is one storm I would err and be cautious about because of the higher snow ration and colder temps and blowing snow.  There will be lots of accidents Friday night rush hour with drivers trying to beat the storm to ge to their destinations as many roads will be snow packed quickly

    2. Blowing snow was also inserted into the forecast. Thank you Mt. Holly. This storm event will be discussed by all the posters and the media as being remembered for the blowing snow, frigid temps  and lower visibilities and not just for high snow accumulations. This is the type of storm the old folks like me really remember of  how winter should be and not just having the back breaking 20 inch snow events.

    Macungie point forecast 

    Tonight
    A chance of snow, mainly after 3am. Cloudy, with a low around 23. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
    Friday
    Snow. High near 28. Northeast wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
    Friday Night
    A chance of snow, mainly before 10pm. Cloudy during the early evening, then gradual clearing, with a low around 12. Wind chill values as low as zero. Northwest wind 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.
    Saturday
    Areas of blowing snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 21. Wind chill values as low as -1. Blustery, with a northwest wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph.
    Saturday Night
    Areas of blowing snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 13. Blustery, with a northwest wind 15 to 20 mph.
    Sunday
    Sunny, with a high near 27. Blustery.

     

    Those warnings were issued where the latest NWS forecast snowfall totals meet criteria, not the models.

    • Like 3

    E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2023-2024 OBS/Discussion

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    12 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

    sorry, Mike my age is showing. The current winter weather advisory should be continued into Saturday morning based on perhaps satisfying  part of this criteria below

    • Blowing snow advisory (WSW) – Sustained winds or frequent gusts of 25 to 35 miles per hour (40 to 56 km/h) accompanied by falling and blowing snow, occasionally reducing visibilities to 1⁄4 mile (0.40 km) or less, will occur for at least three hours. Discontinued beginning with the 2008-2009 winter storm season and replaced by the Winter Weather Advisory for Blowing Snow.[24]

    If the criteria is not meant, then a special hazardous statement maybe issued similar to when there is black ice..  Anyway, blowing snow will be an issue in the rural areas.  Its been a real long time - before 2009 - since we have had this type of weather with high snow ratios and winds together and drivers will not be used to it thats for sure too. 

    That will be reviewed again during today, but yes definitely looks like a good setup for a period of blowing and drifting snow.

    • Like 1

    E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2023-2024 OBS/Discussion

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    12 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

    Said this yesterday: this model indicates near 5.5 inches for my location. I say bring it on. LMAO . But folks its not the snow amounts that interest me at this time.  For the first time in at least five years or more, we will have what I call the 3F's  1. fluffy  high ratio snows, 2. frigid temps and 3. frequent gusts of high winds near 35 mph. The 3F's will produce  a pretty good amount blowing of snow and drifting on local flat and or steep roads, especially in the countryside. As soon as the  plows open them up, they will be be clogged again within a few hours with drifting snow.  Now thats a real winter to me.   Mt Holly has not included blowing snow in their forecasts this evening. That is troublesome to me but I expect them to issue a special statement on the blowing snow scenario for Saturday by  Friday afternoon

     

    Cannot wait for the blowing snow statement- just as good as a winter storm warning- Eye candy 

    What is a 'blowing snow statement'?

    • Like 3
    • Haha 1

    E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2023-2024 OBS/Discussion

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, anthonyweather said:


    I mean at the end of the day there’s really not that much of a difference between 4 inches and 6 inches once it’s on the ground


    .

    True but it can end up crossing advisory versus warning criteria. And the WSW product has 2-4 inches but the graphic has an area of 4-6 inches. 

    • Like 3

    January 15-16 winter storm OBS

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    18 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

    I mean the dude in Swarthmore has 1.5" I am not going to argue over .2" LOL Swarthmore is 3 miles away to my SSE.  A pixe dust steady light snow continues to fall 24f.

    LOL. Well you did lower your earlier measurement. 

    • Like 4
    • Weenie 1

    Central PA Winter 23/24

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

    The CTP website says daily climate summary as of 5 pm.

    I see that you are a Meteorologist & your name sounds familiar. Do you work for the National Weather Service?

    If you have any contacts at CTP, I would love to know if this is their official total for MDT or will they adjust it tonight with the final Daily Climate Summary overnight?

    IMG_4206.jpeg

    I work at NWS Mount Holly. When we run our late afternoon climate, the daily snowfall is through 18z. 

    • Thanks 1

    Central PA Winter 23/24

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    28 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

    This is an absolute joke…!

    How in the heck did MDT only record 2.0 inches of snow today at the 5 pm summary.

    They had .42 of precip through 5 pm.

    Did someone look out of the air traffic control tower & phone in to CTP & say, “it looks like 2 inches Bob”!?!??!

    Hopefully this gets corrected on the official oversight daily summary. There is absolutely no darn way they had 2 inches of snow MDT on .42 of precip.

    IMG_4204.jpeg

    That may have been the total through 18z (1 PM). 

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