MGorse
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Posts posted by MGorse
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24 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:
So the response I got for an on duty meteorologist at Mt. Holly on the NWS chat was they iniitially thought we would receive 2" or less but the northern half of the county has over-performed snowfall wise but since the event is close to over it is not worth issuing a Winter Weather Advisory.
Yeah it over performed there. Up until your report, looks like we did not receive anything from Middlesex County.
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6 hours ago, KamuSnow said:
Did he ever try his poetic forecasts on you guys before he went live with them?
Yup.
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5 hours ago, ChescoPaWxman said:
Per JB says tonight into tomorrow could be biggest PHL event of the year as GFS still not far enough north
The bar is set rather low. Lol
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Oh wow. I worked with Elliot for a few years while at AccuWeather. Well deserved retirement!
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1 hour ago, hazwoper said:
I always understood this...a watch is issued up to 58 hrs before hand when the potential exists. Has nothing to do with those criteria posted above. Notice “watch” is nowhere to be seen n those maps
Watches are typically issued where warning criteria is anticipated to be reached or exceeded, which is directly tied to the criteria maps posted earlier. A watch is for the potential so there is nothing wrong with going to an advisory if amounts look to be lower. Issuing a watch can definitely help with messaging especially with uncertainty, instead of going from ‘nothing’ to an advisory.
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17 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:
IIRC, you need to exceed the amount for a warning.
The criteria has to be reached or exceeded.
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18 minutes ago, HighStakes said:
Since LWX changed the format in the text when they issue watches, warnings, etc. they never include temperatures during event. You would think the general public might find this helpful. Kinda mind boggling
The change was nationally. Temperature info is in the actual forecasts.
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4 hours ago, Hurricane Agnes said:
It seemed to have been back up and running this past Thursday as I've been running stuff that used it, so hope this maintenance phase was successful.
Yup as the work was completed a day early.
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On 7/10/2018 at 12:04 AM, zenmsav6810 said:
I really think this is an opportunity for some novel research. Do you know if there are many interchangeable parts between radar systems? Is this an opportunity where a Kanban system would be useful? Also, I imagine that the best time for radar to be down is during long-duration high-pressure systems when the atmosphere is most stable. I wonder if outages could be planned using a mathematical concept called a Markov Chain to take advantage of this fact.
As an aside I think a good investment for radar would be fixing some of the holes 6000ft holes in the Upper Lancaster/Western Berks area. It is compounded by coverage issues southwest in Western Virginia area. Is there any sort of formal triage process for these sorts of things? I imagine a nice mathematical weighting function could help in prioritizing improvements.
The radar parts are changed out when they need to be, but keep in mind these radars are on all the time except for maintenance. The replacement parts are also reconditioned many times so they may not last as long.
As for adding a radar in the Lancaster to Harrisburg areas, that would be great but likely not happening. There are some studies starting to see how lowering the lowest elevation angle will affect data and others. I believe the State College and Buffalo radars are part of this, and my office put in for this for our radar.
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2 hours ago, blue sky said:
In my opinion...the Mount Holly Radar should have a top priority. Resources should be spent on keeping the darn thing up. This should be ahead of community engagement. Ahead of sending a team to investigate whether wind damage was straight line or tornadic. They should build a second RADAR!
This is not directed at the folks at Mount Holly. It's directed at the upper ups.
July forth picnic pool time. Can't go to the nws for my radar...have to go to Accuweather.
The radar is a priority, however when parts fail they have to be shipped in. Our techs work hard maintaining it and making repairs. Unfortunately parts do wear out as the radar is always running (outside of preventative maintenance). Also, this radar has not had many failures the last few years. Building a second radar would be great but will likely not happen.
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3 hours ago, JTA66 said:
Lolz!! Now we know why we don't see more of Storm Ranger 10 ...
But it is exclusive. Lol
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9 hours ago, Birds~69 said:
Can't they promote him since many people approve unless he has a solid weekday gig? (probably so) Maybe him at 4pm and 5pm and Cecily at 6pm 11pm. Or he just ship to a different station? He seems comfortable in his current role though...who knows?
Not sure since I do not work there. I was just stating that he is probably not on the air much because he is their weekend Met.
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5 hours ago, snowwors2 said:
My biggest question is why the hell isn't Chris Sauers on 6 more often... he offers more analysis than any other tv met I've ever seen and is clearly under utilized!!! Channel 10 needs him really badly at this point!!
Because he was hired as the weekend Met.
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16 hours ago, zenmsav6810 said:
Yeah, with things in such dire states in D.C it hard to see any of the pre-sequester stuff coming back anytime soon... We need a pro-technical president triple research funding for space, medical, infrastructure and education. The other thing that bothers me about our country is the cost of college education, it takes all of our technical minds and basically forces them to take jobs at already existing corporations instead of allowing new graduates to try their hand opening their own businesses or going on to graduate school. It literally takes the creative lifeblood out of our economy. How did we lose our momentum from the 1990's? First, we had a moron president... then we got a moron congress ...now we are going to have both. Although we have only ourselves to blame.
This is not a political thread!
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Thanks for the kind words about NWS Mount Holly. We do our best, despite the staffing shortage which continues to go on.
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On 1/10/2017 at 0:21 PM, hurricane1091 said:
Very interesting, as I did mention this already but was interested to learn some insight from an insider. This is totally a loaded question, but in your mind, why is it that many TV meteorologist sided with data coming from the models with more conservative solutions, as opposed to the more aggressive solutions offered by other models? What kind of comparison goes on with current atmospheric conditions versus what is likely to happen, and why did some models simply not pick up on what actually occurred? An unrealistic question I am sure to ask, as it probably requires a lot of details to explain that we likely cannot even understand - but if you could entertain this just a bit I think it would be awesome.
I do find the NWS to be quite good as well - to add to what others have said.
I am not going to speak for TV Meteorologists since I am not one and not there to see what they are looking at and how their decisions are made on what to go with. Regarding this past weekend storm, the model guidance overall were having trouble with the split flow. This involved a system moving across the Great Lakes and another one sliding across the Gulf Coast States. What appeared to have happened was the systems phased a bit faster allowing warmer air to be advected farther north and west, therefore moving the area of lift in the atmosphere farther inland. There was mesoscale banding signatures showing up in the guidance, but the million dollar question was where would it set up. The actual surface low I think did not track that much closer to the coast from what the guidance had, however the quicker phasing of the systems provided stronger lift to the northwest side and therefore the snow shield was able to get farther west.
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On 1/8/2017 at 11:53 AM, svh19044 said:
Every single storm there is, and for the most part, they can't get right more than 24 hours out (and most of the time they don't get it right within 24 hours), the forecast is dead nuts wrong. It's pathetic. Forecasting seemed to peak in the late 90's and it has been downhill ever since. The excuses that we make for our local "meteorologists" and vendors are astonishing.
Are you an expert weather forecaster? There is a ridiculous amount of model data available now, and in my opinion this can certainly cause problems. I have been a meteorologist for the NWS now for over a decade and there is only so much time to look at model guidance and coordinate with neighboring offices and national centers, plus to complete all the forecast database grid editing. More and more data but not more time to look at it.
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41 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said:
DT's first call gives us a total screw job. Don't think this storm is going to do exactly that. Putting my money on Mt. Holly and Glenn on this one.
If you are referring to his map posted above, that is for the Friday night and Saturday event not the one later Thursday night and early Friday morning. Not sure if there was confusion on that or not.
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20 minutes ago, snowwors2 said:
As in...
"WOW, this is really boring and frustrating as hell to watch!"
LOL
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21 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:
Too much clutter...data overload.
After all these years ch6 (accu weather) hasn't changed all that much and is quite clear. They give the temps, focus on the map and what's going to happen then focus on the forecast. Simple is sometimes better...
Can't argue with ya there.
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2 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:
They want the whole "neighborhood weather" thing to sound all friendly and happy....but it offers zero substance.
Maybe they are going with the "wow factor" given all the graphics (?).
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4 hours ago, Birds~69 said:
Yep, it's a mess these days. It's difficult to watch. Spends 90% of time discussing the temps in every location then wings through the 10 day forecast like the studio is on fire. The whole layout/presentation is pretty bad. Not sure if it was his idea or the network?
Yeah but it is local neighborhood weather.
That is basically how they have been 'selling' it to the viewers.
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The new format gave me a headache.
Yeah, the new graphics have a rather busy look to them.
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AccuWeather just recently extended their 45-day forecasts out to 90 days.
Elliot Abrams to Retire
in Philadelphia Region
Posted
Yup it was Evan Myers, one of Joel's brothers.