Sn0waddict

Nice solid bow echo in NJ loll where is this during the summertime..

2 inches of snow up in Norfolk from the squall per Ryan’s twitter page. 

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Alot of trees here still holding ice-winds later will be interesting...

Yep anything not touched by the sun is still completely encased in ice.  

Those are old numbers (7am) BPT reported .40  Few hours ago

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

Milford, MA right? i was thinking CT for a minute there.

Im in Milford CT,  haven’t been out since 1230 but main roads were ok then. 

Definitely a solid glaze of ice on everything , I’m not measuring but  nearby Bridgeport Ct reported .40 so I’m guessing we are definitely over .25   No outages at all to report in the UI territory though thankfully

4 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

BUFKIT is showing 12 full hours of ZR for HVN, ranging from .017 to .169/hr usually ranging around .060 per hour for a total of .805. Say we lose 30-40% of that due to run off. That's still .5" of total ice.

Precip is on the light side so that will help with accretion. Temps rangning from 27-32F. I don't think a widespread .5-.75 is likely but i think its in the cards, like you said if everything goes right. .25-.50 is not an unreasonable forecast thought for interior S CT.

Total snow before the flip is 3.7" on bufkit so well have a solid concrete pack for a while if that pans out.

Could see inland coastal CT getting up to .5, while those like me along the coast sit at 32.8F after a tenth of an inch or so of ice junk. 

Nyc folks jumping off the Brooklyn bridge if that verified (which it won’t). Gfs , or should I say FV3, seems to like to create these fantasy snowicanes every so often. 

22 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

looks like no snow on the backend for me, turned to crap, do do

All snow here in orange ct

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

That 12z GFS was pretty fugly for Sun-Tue....two different rainers to Mainers.

Luckily it’s a long way out.  

Well at least it gives us a full fledged snowicane to make up for that at hr 300 lol

A little over an inch so far , nice wintery appeal. It may not be much but it looks great and our 12 week old Bernese mountain dog puppy loved his first snow, so I would consider this a win. 

Light snow that isn’t really sticking yet. But the HRRR is starting to show more love for CT now, so that’s good at least.

Finally turned back to snow here. Snowing at a steady clip, though everything is still just wet the moment.

Sleet has just arrived. Was ripping snow prior. Probably 2 inches down? Not bad.

Ripping snow here but the sleet line is two towns over so the fun is about over. A couple inches down, would consider this a win all things considered. Have very little hope for part 2.

Not great for CT but it’s just one run.

6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Forget about the initial WAA precip unless you’re well inland-it’ll be an hour or two of non-rain that gets washed away. That part’s for SNE. Essentially it’ll act like most SWFEs act here. What makes or breaks it for 80% of this sub forum is what happens behind the low and where/whether the CCB develops. This hasn’t really changed in 36 hours now. 

I find the following tends to happen:

-Gfs thermals are too warm at the onset of a storm. Toss

-Initial thump of snow is stronger than modeled. But,

-Midlevels warm up quicker than modeled. So a satisfying quick couple of inches than the ice/rain junk 

-But after that is sort of a wild card. I can’t recall a recent storm that stalled/occluded like this. I’m not confident in how quickly temps crash nor the amount of precip that is around when they do. My gut says they crash quick but precip drys quicker than we hope, but I could be wrong.

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Agree with you. The GFS still has a few inches for the city but once the storm blows up, it still show rain which is wrong.

Everyone with a brain knew the 18z 15 inch blob over NYC wasn’t gonna stay.  It was a random band that even the HRRR couldn’t pinpoint in real time. But no reason to give up either.  As I said above models are going to have a rough time pinpointing where this is going to stall and occlude. 

The models have no idea where to stall and occlude this storm.  They won’t for some time. The only thing that you should be looking at right now is the strength of the high and the initial front end thump.  Everything besides that is no where near locked. Anything is still on the table really.q

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

I'm not even interested in the initial batch for my area.  Our NW crew should see a plowable snow out of that though which is awesome.   I'm more interested for when the meso models get in range for the ULL banding. 

Think that might not even be sorted out entirely until the initial thump is already on our doorstep.

4 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Will be interesting to see what the hi res meso models do with the banding during their runs tomorrow and Sunday.

I have noticed that the RGEM AND HDRPS are way colder at the surface for the onset of the storm. Like 5+ degrees. Maybe they are on to something, though probably not. Wish the HDRP went out farther hour 48 looks sweet lol

8 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

LOL it finally caved

It was just a random band that no model can pinpoint until we are in the HRRR range. Wouldn’t say it caved to anything. 

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

I get a yard of sleet a season. 3' of pure sleet, every single season. No, you're the liar.

Try living south of the Merritt , that 3’ of sleet ends up being 34f and rain lol. 

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

ehhh...it's kinda a broad circulation so hard to really tell where it exactly tracks over but Branford is close enough to LI  just a ferry trip away 

Welcome to the coast (well for this storm at least)It’s always fun to laugh at the inland folks who freak out over the possibility of getting one hour of sleet in between their foot plus of snow. 

Much more precip vs 12z too.