Ralph Wiggum

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Posts posted by Ralph Wiggum


  1. 8 hours ago, RedSky said:

    Hey man like single digits in March on the GFS, just another ordinary start to spring in the new backwards clown world :lol:

    How can this possibly happen short of some massive strat warming event with such a persistent +AO and strong PV?

     

     

    gfs_T850_us_59.png

    GFS op has an extremely cold bias. Ens families and weeklies all suggest a mild start to March. GEFS in particular agree that the cold map you posted is likely garbage:

    gfs-ens_T2ma_us_58.png


  2. 2 hours ago, cbmclean said:

    When you look at the pool of really bad years do you note any pattern for the next year.  I remember us discussing a few multi-year stretches.  Given the relative rarity of years this bad, I was wondering if there wasn't an elevated chance of another really bad year following.

    I wouldnt be the least bit surprised if next year was a complete shutout tbh. 

    • Like 1

  3. 11 minutes ago, Ji said:
    23 minutes ago, poolz1 said:
    I have been thinking hard about maybe a second (relatively inexpensive) place to buy where I can experience deep winter whenever I want.  Been looking hard at places in the Tug.  Prices in the sticks up there are not terrible. 
    If it were up to me I would live up there during the winter, work firewood, plow my driveway and watch the snowfall.  I like solitude man...especially in winter.  Come back to MD when mud season starts up there. My wife would prefer to have a warmer option as a second home.  So...the compromise looks like we will just stay here in MD so I can continue counting snowfall in millimeters instead of feet.

    Man I've had those exact same thoughts. I was looking at places near lake superior last week where you got like 300 inches this winter. My mood is so much better when winter is in my life. Thjs has been so depressing

    You and @Maestrobjwa should go halves on a cabin in the woods. 

    • Haha 1

  4. 1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

    Dang...is the first week of March hail mary window already closed? If so...oof. That would be a typical end to this winter, smh

    I hope it is over it cannot end fast enough. Last thing we need is some St Patrick's Day threat showing a MECS under 60 hours then disintegrating into nothingness as the final straw. Let's just end this asap and hopefully reset the system next winter. 

    • Like 1

  5. 14 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

    Shortening wavelengths, cold dump combined with warm ocean waters leading to enormous baroclinic potential.  Could be shenanigans.

    I'm going all-in balls deep on this threat. This will be the one that fools people into thinking it cant snow last week of Feb and cant snow with a +NAO and is going to shock the system of many. Be ready.


  6. Is this the storm isotherm called for last few days Feb or first couple days of March? This is the one he was talking about since early January. He has been good with this season's forecast, so maybe this thread is actually legit. The Insane Isotherm Bomb of Feb 2020. Let's do this!! 

    • Like 1

  7. 7 hours ago, The Iceman said:

    Selling hard on the day 8/9 threat showing up on the models. +NAO with no blocking in sight. That storm is cutting up the apps as we get closer. We needed it to be 300 miles OTS at this juncture...

    Its over after March 1 bro...maybe one last trackable event before then. Euro and CMC say hold my beer groundhog.

    • Like 1

  8. 23 hours ago, The Iceman said:

    Fits the March pattern shift that last's til mid May. Hey at least we'd get our pity storm...

    We wont. Not seeing any hints or signals this March like we did the past several. Hopefully we will have severe. Not sure if the past few decent spring severe were due to the late winter events. If so maybe not a good omen.

    • Confused 1

  9. 11 minutes ago, frd said:

     

    Wonder whether there is research on the SPV and the TPV in winters such as 2020 and what the next winter evolved into?  

    If the Pac  has any influence on the vortex in terms of precursor patterns and weakening, etc. are we looking at stronger winter vortex setting up in future winters ?  

    Seems that although up North has been cold,  not so sure this will carry over to any long term benefit though.

    Certainly the high speed jet circling the NH is remarkable, this image is a great representation. 

    Again, what will be the spill over effects be for the early summer?  

    Some modeling is indicating a somewhat warmer spring. But, but beyond the seasonal vortex weakening and changing wavelengths maybe a more normal summer might await us. 

     

    AA13CEC3-AB1C-4DA2-9348-002F57B4076A.png

     

     

     

    There was research done not directly related to the PV that seasons with well BN snowfall and AN temps yield a hotter summer. It is posted by Don in the Philly sub.

    • Like 1

  10. 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

    If the longwave pattern sucks monkey nuts such that the only time we can get cold is with a strong NW flow behind a wave (when everything will be suppressed) odds of getting snow are minimal. 

    If only you posted this in early Dec you would have been spot-on for majority of the winter.


  11. 2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

    Euro has been depicting some possible snow showers with a piece of UL energy dropping in behind the initial cold front on late Thursday. I mentioned it in this thread yesterday. Looks a bit more impressive on today's run. Something to keep an eye on. Loseto6 and I were discussing it in the other thread. Not sure where it belongs, if it even ends up becoming a thing.

    1582254000-b16Tcv5LfKA.png

    If a dusting of snow is "more impressive" I would hate to have seen previous runs.


  12. 4 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

    No problem. That's funny though..."donsutherland1 territory".

    He's been posting in this thread lately which is great and informative. He may see my question and post. If not I may hit him up...  

    I tagged him so he probably already saw it and if I know him is already researching stats.


  13. 7 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

    Yeah I saw that band moving over your area....missed me by < 10 miles.

    Question for you Steve. What is the relationship for this summer (temp wise) following a blowtorch winter? If any? I'd gladly punt this winter for a cooler than normal Summer. Add numerous T-Storms and I'm all in.  

    Couldnt tell you tbh. That is @donsutherland1 territory.


  14. 2 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

    Yep, 29F on my cell as well.

    Yeah, it's actually exciting w/the cold and some wind. More clouds than expected....certainly not sunny.

    If we could just eek out one 3-6"/4-8" storm I'll be happy. I feel like it's a long Fall season and Winter hasn't begun but in reality Spring is right around the corner.... 

    Actually recorded .10" snow with that band this morning. I'll add it to the list of <1" events this season.