Superstorm

After the midweek system next week (rain or snow), the pattern looks ripe for snowstorms or rumors of such. .

NAM 12z with sleet removed. Remember, these algorithms in marginal events are never exact. .

I never care what temp is before storm. I know the high at MDT was like 46F preceding Superstorm 93. I always look at those mid level temps and proximity of 0C. Right now, those temps are too high and way too close to the wrong side of 0C to give this storm more than the occasional glance. I still think we in Lancaster may squeak couple inches out of this, but the writing has been on the wall for a few days that this was not our storm. Soon as blocking or pseudo blocking was gone, holding CAD was going to be an issue. .

I’d MUCH rather have Arctic air in place. We do much better with that in LSV, verses hoping to win the rain/snow lone battle with marginal cold. .

GTG .... great idea. I used to go to the conferences years ago. .

Even Horst is more bullish than you would expect by looking at models (other than the NAM). I think MAG may be right about the quick hitting and thump snow may be under forecasted by the big models. .

Yeah, this may be most bullish I have seen them. .

CAD looks better on 12z Euro .

How much for Superstorm? .

Saw that too. Aligns well with his discussion. .

He’s also been concerned with the ice accretion. .

That looks like a good call. .

That will be a rainstorm into the Great Lakes region. A second wave may try to get going along the front. .

Surprisingly getting better. .

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Kind of surprised for Lancaster County. .

True, just when it starts to crank, lol. .

I do think we get a nice thump of snow (2 to 3”). However, in classic 80s New Jersey climate storm, the rain will be knocking on the door too soon. .

Thinking Horst forecast looking better and better every minute. .

Game, set, match. .

I thought I heard 16F. .

A lot of sleet .

Thumbs up!! .

Nope. .

And for us in Lancaster County, we’ve been on this ride before. If it is going to snow heavily in northern PA, there’s about a 90% chance we will be turning to rain. .