btownheel

Light snow in Gibsonville. .

Just going to throw this out there. Feel free to roast if I’m wrong. But obs. have been coming in colder/wetter since minute 1 with this system and you can see short range correcting wetter in short range real-time but then trying to be stubborn with drier later in their runs (I.e. less reliable). IMO, talking about “precip minimums” and “switching to rain” for anyone here in favored CAD regions is simple wishcasting. We’re gonna get well over an inch of QPF and in CAD climo regions not a drop of it comes anything other than frozen. Just look at setup. Climo matters, folks. Also think north of 40 and NW of 85 are 80-90% sleet which will help a lot. Lower central NC/midland SC….unfortunately not the case. .

The move away from boiling water reactors to Gen IV thorium reactors also has a ton of potential (and offers solutions for what to do with current waste) but needs huge government subsidy on front end to make it viable for utilities. .

NAM’s being decommissioned for a reason, which likely also means it hasn’t been getting resources for a bit. I’m with you. RGEM and HRRR. NAM can be good with thermals but has lost its edge and LOL at ever posting RAP. .

TBH, if that cold does push in and lock up I’d love to experience a severe thunder sleet storm. .

RGEM sees this like I do. If you are in climo favored CAD regions anywhere in NC or extreme upstate SC, not a drop of this falls as rain. I’ve been chuckling at the wishcast posts thinking it will. Look at Texas verification right now, look at the temps diving out of Ohio and that HP. .

Ain’t nobody in here except maybe Brick buying anything, lol. Just goofing around with clown maps. However, it’s way more fun to be scouring HRRR runs for the massive storm in 24 hours while peeking at goofy clowns for next week than trying to look at weeklies hoping the death ridge subsides in February…maybe. .

Oh so now we have “I-95 theory?” CMC trolling…. .

Dropping that on top of the 3-4 inches of concrete we’ll probably still have on the ground at that point would be enough for me to throw in the towel on at least the next two winters, if not three. .

Blacksburg still likes the odds of a little front end thump in northern NC. Nice to see. .

Okay, that’s taking “I-85” theory a bit too far…. .

Truth. FTR, also fully agree with your comment that precisely no one in NC CAD favored regions is seeing any of this above freezing. Not an hour, not a minute. We’re lining up the strongest entrenched CAD signature we may have seen in 15 years. Make the necessary prep and hope it’s all pingers (which I think is actually pretty likely). SC/NE GA and some of the Sandhills in NC? Not so fortunate I’m afraid… .

I think people are trying to wishcast away and latching onto anything. Also the general vibe in the last years for message boards/Twitter etc. on all topics has been to max out nihilism. Bottom line is we’re gonna get blasted. But *hopefully* for a lot of north central NC most of it falls as sleet which will be a super fun storm. .

Still at the rough edge of “Go home NAM, you’re drunk” at this stage. .

Yup. Effectively, draw a 45 degree NE line from Charlotte North into Va. on the west/upper side of it, cut 75% of that qpf off the zr totals and add it to sleet and that should be about right. .

Nope. Miss me with that until like Thursday and only if -we have sleet/snowpack to lock in/enhance cold -we have strong consensus on models inside of 72 hours Until both those are met. .

Euro just folded like a cheap suit on CAD strength. Welcome to Sleetmaggedon 2026 my NC brethren! .

Yeh, miss me with that craziness until we have full model agreement sub 72 hrs out. .

For GA and midland SC folks, yeh, freaking is justified. That’s a monster CAD and we know how those hold on for dear life. For us in NC, I really think there is enough power in that CAD that we’ll get the heavy bulk as Sleetmaggedon 2026, especially 64 north. Charlotte….wtf knows although I’d lean sleet there as well for 75-80% of it. .

We are sleet GOLDEN GODS. .

Pack05 also has a burner. Cool. .

Let me help. That won’t happen. I’ll own it if I’m wrong but No. Friggin. Way. Sleet. .

Kind of like driving a low right into CAD. Most of us here have tracked these things as hobbyists for a long time. Long enough to know that’s….not a thing. I get the Euro is the Euro and all, but something’s wonky there. .

I know we all got excited with 20+ inch fantasies, but if that were to verify that’s a super fun system. Snow/sleet/snow for badass sledding, minimal freezing rain in most of the Piedmont and then COLD to enjoy it. .

Think that one is a toss. Even its AI doesn’t agree at all with the CAD scouring out like that. Still a trench war and likely will be until Friday. All about how that Baja low interacts. .