ovechkin

Unfortunately right in the NAM wheelhouse. IIRC it was also the first model to introduce a changeover for the big storm on 1/31-2/1. 

3 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

YA THINK?

Ah- totally missed the sarcasm post. Whoops!  

So, while the current RGEM is encouraging, just perhaps a bit of caution that maybe it is once again too aggressive for our area. 

Just now, North Balti Zen said:

someone (ovechkin) wrote:

I don't know what he's talking about. What now?

Before the weekend storm 10 days ago, EURO, GFS, NAM started cutting back on our snow totals and suggesting mix/rain as well. The RGEM maybe as late as Saturday still held on to our area getting major accumulations. It was the only model left doing that by that point. It was obviously wrong. I think I am remembering correctly. 

Not to burst any bubbles and I know no two systems are exactly alike and also better to have something in our corner,  but didn’t the RGEM still spit out ridiculous amounts here for 1/31-2/1 after the varsity level models started cutting back? 

I’m old enough to remember when this event was supposed to have temps below 30. 

Just now, chris21 said:

47 here in NW.

Winds seem to have shifted so hopefully we have maxed. At least we aren’t in Death Valley Baltimore.

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Yup. Forecast high was 49 for me...currently at 41.

 50 already downtown. We blow by forecasted highs more than DC drivers blow stop signs. 

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I guess you missed that day in school but 2 days is not the same as 6 days. The number 4 would like a word with you. 

I said 5 or 6. It’s still 3.8 inches over 5 days. Yippie. Sorry for being off by one. Tough crowd here. Sheesh. 

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Good thing that's not true.

1/25- 0.3

1/31- 2.3

2/1-0.2

2/2-0.7

2/6-0.3

Sure, 3.2 was from one storm, I will grant you that, but it was over 2 full days. 

3.8 at DCA, spread over 5 or 6 days total. LOL. Other urban hear islands in the northeast have done more than cash in.  Just give me decent temps at all levels and I’ll take my chances with QPF.  Systems this season have not been moisture starved. Not going to fret about a 0.1 change from run to run. I will fret if we are at 32-33 but have that extra 0.1. 

My apologies if this is an incorrect statement (still learning,) but the 12z suite so far overall looks a bit warmer in the immediate metro? Granted it’s only been the JV on the floor so far, but hope I am wrong. 

The only “worry” from this run is marginal temps. We simply don’t do marginal well anymore. Hopefully it’s not correct since no support from other models temp wise. 

Was supposed to be 35 today. Hit 39. We bust high on temps almost daily now. Highs and Lows. 

Going back through some cerebral cobwebs... didn’t Jan 95 have a west to east oriented weak system in a decent airmass that put 3 or 4 inches down in DC and Baltimore? 

I’m normally a Deb Downer and snow possibilities in the immediate metro are guilty until proven innocent, but I like this set up bc of the relative “simplicity.”

Read the philly forum. They think this is coming north as well and will screw the mid Atlantic.

Overrunning. No crazy transfers off the coast. Good airmass.... maybe, just maybe.... 

NYC now at 32.5 for the season. DCA 3.8. Yeah,  not exactly the same climo, and central park isnt an airport, but that difference is still insane. 

Just in time for the sleet/concrete bomb anniversary of 2007. I still am not totally sure what the hell fell that night, but it lasted a month. 

Great run. Frankly chasing double digits is many times a waste of time. 20s without worrying  about pixie dust or rates at 33 degrees where everything melts as it falls Is fine. High advisory, low warning level that actually sticks would be a big time win. 

Just now, stormtracker said:

lol.  Kinda over-exaggerating here?   So far, the NAM is still on it's own.   It's not ideal, but it's definitely not woe is me yuck! type deal either.

Yeah, fair point. Just some PTSD from the last two storms.  

Yeah, not a good start to the 12z suite. NAM being insistent on the warmth is not a good sign, especially in a season where the immediate metro has struggled mightily with cold. Yuck. 

2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Any other year I'd be so confident with the Euro/EPS in our corner vs. the NAM/GFS but this year ehhhhhhhh

It’s EURO/EPS and ICON!!!! Can’t fail now.

At the end of the day the immediate metros simply don’t do well anymore in marginal setups. Cold has simply been lacking 2 years running now. DCA hasn’t been below 24 this year and didn’t get below 22 last year. Highs under 40 let alone freezing are few and far between. Set ups, storm tracks have not been the issue. It’s really been all about temperatures.  Advertised cold doesn’t materialize as projected, we blow past high temperature projections and bust high in lows amost nightly. Get some legit cold with these tracks and it would be a different story. Then we can talk mid levels, rates, etc... until then we sre simply doo damn toasty. End of story. Will see what happens later this week.... maybe a little bit of actual cold.