ovechkin

Just now, North Balti Zen said:

It’s probably gonna snow. It’s cold. One tiny area of our particular atmosphere is a hair warm. The rates should erode that and we snow. Gonna be frustrating until it does. 

Going the wrong way. Sleet  ow to FRZ rain is aver bad sign.

Lol-just flipped to mostly... rain. No joke. FR light rain now.

Already under the heavies and all sleet. Can’t even get the 90 minutes of snow the NAM promised.

Sleet in Wheaton. Decent clip. Such crap. 

DCA under freezing at 31 already entering a storm and the Wiz are going for 3 in a row. What a time to be alive. 

30 in Wheaton. Cautiously optimistic. A few inches that turn to concrete should be fun. Good luck to all. 

The ultimate Deb Downer prediction for DCA for this storm....

we blow by the forecasted high of 35 and hit 39 or 40. Clouds roll in. Prevents radiational cooling. Despite the airmass we still have to watch the turtle like speed of the temp drop while dews start to rise. Precip starts as snow with marginal temps, maybe whitens the grass a bit cools everything down. The warm nose then suddenly appears and changes things to Sleet/FZR. DCA reports 0.6 of a few flakes and pellets.

Feb 2021 has featured major to historic snows in... Dallas, San Antonio, Nashville, Little Rock, Seattle, Cincinnati, St Louis. Places like Chicago and NYC also have been hit big. But we can’t get a simple high end advisory snow in DC. 3 inches to cover the grass and street. Need a miracle, even in a good airmass. The 24 hour trends pre event look like they have commenced. At least we will have plenty of ice for our scotch. 

DCA hasn’t budged from 27 the past few hours. 

Just now, blizzardmeiser said:

Stop. There is no sun angle issues.

That was exactly my point. Texas which has longer daylight than we do now had no issues, we won’t either. March it becomes an issue and even then rates can overcome it. 3/8/99  and 3/5/15 come to mind. 

Just now, blueberryfaygo said:

At the height of the storm I am in the mid 20s.   I dont like the timing but hopefully it is cold and heavy enough to overcome any late winter sun angle issues

Texas has no such sun issues.

Hard to get the NAMs to agree with globals when they can’t even agree with each other. 

I’m the typical Deb Downer and the village idiot (great combination  ) but I am excited about this set up. The overrunning should be into a cold airmass and this isn’t a miller B like the overrunning fail from a few weeks ago. We will go over to mix and frankly if that happens after 4 inches or 6 inches probably won’t matter much if we get it solidified into concrete afterwards. Either way could be an impactful and memorable storm. I think we often simply judge storm but snow accumulation which isn’t always the best idea. Interesting setup here. Looking forward to how this evolves.

The NAM has scored well this winter. At this point it is a reminder that accumulating snow in the immediate metro is guilty until proven innocent. 

3 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Congrats! That game sucked...as did the Caps. We need Holtby back. And Orlov needs to be traded. 

VV was never intended to start 11 games in a row. The D is terrible and they can’t win a face off.

I will gladly take 4 inches that is then turned into concrete. 

Any chance of any overrunning out ahead of the system to get a bit of snow before the upper levels warm? Very weenie question I know....

13 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’d die in south florida

A common occurrence. We used to joke in residency....Who do you call if you get sick in south Florida?  United or Delta. 

Such a cold airmass that DCA got down to 30 last night (forecast of 27) so another high bust on a low. Forecasted high of 31 so it will be close- meaning it already is. (Actually has already been 31 today, but we will count daytime high.)

The beltway force field is in full effect. Won’t even let pity flurries in. Strong work!

Of course the cold dry air is doing its thing. So cold that DCA is at 33 at night in February. BRRR....!!!!

3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Radar looks good but will probably die to the mountains. 

I don’t think the mountains are relevant here. It’s not a clipper. To my beginner eye it’s waves riding a front in a mostly W to E direction. We are simply too far north. Yesterday we weren’t but had a tropical surface and/or mid levels. 

Truly amazing how dc gets screwed every time. Funny how sea temps and boundary layers, and columns don’t impact eastern VA. Yeah, I get it, front with little waves, could have set up anywhere, blah blah blah.
 

can’t wait for the first person to post about how “the radar looks more north than models depicted!”

2 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

I dunno, I'd be so happy to have light snow falling all day with actual winter temps.  So sick of non accumulating snow.  I'd love what the ICON is advertising.  

Yeah, but you’re more likely to find more snow on the bridge in Brooklyn it is selling than you will from the storm. 

1 minute ago, WinterFire said:

If I had to guess, I'd say part of it is sea surface temperatures--if the Atlantic is warming, it would make it much more difficult to get cold and stay cold in the costal plain. Unfortunately since that's global warming-driven, there's not much we can do about that. But would a northern-stream dominant flow also have an impact? I.e., are systems required to dig more without drying out too much (which seems to have been happening with nearly every storm inside 72 hours), which makes any set up pretty precarious? Maybe it's grasping at straws, but that is something that (hopefully) doesn't stick around forever, and wouldn't necessarily imply that even moderate snow in the DC-Baltimore area is just shy of a lost cause...

Lower mid Atlantic, northern mid Atlantic, northeast, have done fine compared to climo. So somehow the sea surface temp is only hostile here? And our temp issues are not just a winter phenomenon. 

I think this winter has really highlighted what really has been going on in and around the beltway for a couple of years now. We are simply damn warm. Every season. Pattern doesn’t matter.  Last 2 summers DCA is popping 90-91 when closeby places (even south) are mid 80s. We blow by forcasted highs regularly and bust way high on lows in all seasons. I’m not talking “normal,” just compared to that day’s forecast. I can’t think of a day where we ended up lower than predicted (save for the smoke days last September.)Clear nights with light north winds and DCA stays with a steady temp for hours. But full clouds in December with no sun angle? We pop 5 degrees above predicted. Yes, purely anecdotal, but we are just damn warm.  Tracking, trying to understand boundry layers etc... all fine and dandy. It’s also been pretty irrelevant.  Yes, spoken like a dumb novice I am sure. But that is really the only observation right now. 

Besides for it being 36 at DCA at 9am... whicb is our forcased high for the day.