ovechkin

50/41 in Wheaton. I think the last time I anxiously awaited this huge a temp drop was March 1993.

93, 94, 99, 05, 07 (April included as well there,) 09, 14, 15, 18, all had decent snow events in March. Even in the DCA Death Valley climate. March if anything is more interesting than December. The issues are psychologically it feels we are done and sun angle melts things quickly, but March events can be fun. 

That said, Friday looks lame at the surface at least. 

Steady light/moderate snow at the VA. Minor grass sticks he. If only it were a few degrees colder. As usual. Have snow? Sucky surface temps. Have surface temps? Sucky mid levels or rates. Pretty to look at at least.

I think with this year the frustrating part here is that we have continually failed and the rest of the NE corridor has continually done great. Prior years had the say the Boxing Day fiasco but then one a few weeks later where we all scored. Same with 2015. I remember NJ and NYC getting clobbered in Jan 2015, but then we made up for it with an awesome Feb/March. This year for the immediate metro it’s been fail after fail. It happens. But then again we had 2018-2019 which us immediate metro folks had a decent season- 1.5 inches downtown in NOVEMBER, a 10 inch two part storm in January, and a nice daytime late February solid advisory level storm. PHL did not do well that year. Like DC sports we tend to perseverate on the failures. 

Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me three times shame on GFS. Fool 146 times in one winter...

Overperformer. Finally got rid of that warm nose in the mid levels

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Of course the sounding @MN Transplant posted says I may be full of crap

Lol, the best part I like about being a gullible moron is that I’ll believe anyone smarter than me- which is about 99% of this board. It is possible you are both correct. 

Too bad nothing strong or organized enough to overcome whatever warm layer is there and change things to snow. 

2 minutes ago, jayyy said:

IAD soundings showed a +1c warm layer between 800-825 leading up to that storm. The surface was plenty cold - it hit 20 here last night - but the cold wasn’t deep enough for all layers to get below freezing all the way into the metros.  We didn’t have the dynamics in place or mid level lows closing to our south to keep the mid levels at  bay. I  experienced freezing rain in sub 20-25 degree conditions multiple times up in NY. It sucks man. 

I mean for potentially overnight tonight. 

Ok, I’ll bite on this “event” for educational purposes. Why would it be ice overnight? Winds are out of the north, I don’t see a screaming south wind or jet steak like last night at the mid levels. What am I not seeing? For the record, my guess is this is a whole lot of nothing regardless of what might fall if anything. 

4 minutes ago, WhiteoutMD said:

radar starting to light up south of dc

It is? Where exactly? 

3 minutes ago, peribonca said:

Lets hope part two overperforms later today/tonight! Still quite a bit of moisture flowing north from the deep south.

Whatever you are smoking please share!  

The nice thing about sleet I guess is that when it’s plowed the piles make it seem like it snowed 6 inches. Next week when it’s 50 plus out those piles might still be there. 

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Do I have to go back to when we were only 48 hours out and post those trend gifs showing EVERYTHING with 6" plus for DC and Baltimore and trending better EVERY run?  Yea it immediately started to fall apart after that and by last night signs were this could go down this way...but this one has to hurt even more because it was trending better until about 48 hours out...all the others looked really good at like 100 hours but the slow bleed to fail started much earlier.  This one actually looked good at 48 hours and then fell apart.   Just because I was worried about the mid level warm layer...and I am not shocked it ended up killing a lot of people's snow dreams...doesn't mean I wasn't hopeful this one would be different and work out.  You don't find it amazing that we keep getting "decent" chances and they ALL break the wrong way for 95?  

You are an amazing forecaster and I’ve learned a ton from your posts and appreciate your insights a ton, but you did say yesterday to expect a positive bust in the immediate metro this time, no?

1 minute ago, real said:

50 to 50 snow and sleet in downtown dc now.  Doubt the snow will last but at least it’s trying 

I think I’ve seen a few flakes by the VA. Both of them. The sleet accumulation on the street is cool, but still disappointing. 

More heavy returns in the city. Zero flakes. 

Models, tracks, etc, all BS.  simply put snow in DC is guilty until proven innocent. 

Well the heavies came through and didn’t cool the column. Stick a fork in this in the immediate metro. 

Just now, yoda said:

of what?  ice?  they just had a 1/4" ice last week

Snow

Zero snow under the heavy band in the city. Shocking. 

1 minute ago, weatherCCB said:

Yep, think we might overcome it for a bit. 

But , looks ice, ice baby tonight. 

Radar looks decent to our sw. 

 

Zero chance in the city and immediately by the beltway. 

I would rather 55 and sunny all winter across the entire country than this crap while everyone else scores big time. 

Great storm track, great HP up north, mid February, surface in the 20s, and can’t buy a flake while record snows have been everywhere else. Truly amazing. 

DC Winter 2021 rule. It only snows when the surface is above 32.

As long as PHL and NYC get creamed all is right with the world.