ovechkin

Pretty day. Though will still be totally hate filled and jealous of PHL and NY in a few hours.

Coming down nicely at the VA on N. Capitol but roads just wet. Probably sun angle

Or maybe just 33 deg and UHI in general. 

Pretty flakes now at the VA. Sticking to a cardboard box in the loading dock. That’s about it. Paging the 1040H and some better rates stat.

light SN at the VA off North Capitol st quickly went to a mix with sleet. Oh well.

still 33 and still nothing at the VA off N. Capitol St. Dews still in the low/mid 20's. Hopefully onset will knock down temps a little bit.

33 at the VA just off North Capitol St. Already at the projected high for the day.

Mostly cloudy, awaiting the 14 flakes. The salting on Georgia Ave is very impressive. Actually gave the impression of a little snowcover on the sides of the roads.

Looks like sleet/mix in Greensboro, NC area. That can’t be a bad thing no?  Though precip now looks disorganized in general. Front end thumps usually work out better with an actual thump. Hope it gets organized soon...

Thanks, very helpful. 
 

And temps not bad right now. Certainly don’t want to waste whatever flakes we may get.

Meanwhile DCA (which must really stand for Deathvalley CA  ) is hovering at 37-38 without much budging.

Weather53- what barometer readings do you look for in situations like this? Thanks. 

3 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Yeah I jumped the gun on that a bit.

All good. I’m still learning a ton. Temp drop off this evening off to a good start!  Will see when the WAA precip starts, where the LP tracks and how long the mid levels hold. I’m not confident, but that’s what makes this fun. Win some lose some, and try to keep things lighthearted and enjoyable. Except for my intense jealousy and hatred of PHL and NYC every time they get snow and we don’t. 

9 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Most of the day was 39-42 and your observation from 11am that this afternoon would torch because it was 40 at 11am was incorrect. Save the despondency for banter 

Despondency? Hardly- more humor, but your point is still a good one and well taken. You a great forecaster and know our climate well. My point was less about conditions at onset  ( I think most agree snow at onset) vs how quickly we would turnover. Especially inside the beltway. Yet to be determined. Hope I am wrong! 

1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said:

A misdiagnosis  that was made at 11am and repeated was that since temp was 40 at 11am we were already in trouble with rising temps. The sun strength is zero right now and rising barometer with fresh nw breeze allows no afternoon warming and that is what happened

Expert similar cold air exertion for the text of the way.  I was 38/20 at 11am and 39/20 now, that’s a snower  for me 

I see your point and actually don’t disagree. Yes, that certainly can mean snow- to start. The question is how long does it hold? White rain for an hour or two or a slight dusting to be washed away by 34 degree rain doesn’t get me excited.

3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Anybody else get the feel that this is starting to slow down a bit?

Isn’t that bad? Don’t we want the initial stuff to start earlier?

Going to top out at 43-44-45, clouds already start to build, will keep lows well above freezing (inside the beltway) and then we see white rain for an hour.  This show airs more than Shawshank Redemption on cable.  Both shows end standing in the rain. 

42 degrees. Fresh mild Canadian airmass. At least it isn’t stale.

6 minutes ago, lpaschall said:

Agreed. Temps were forecasted to be 3-4 degrees higher in Westminster at this time. Holding at 33 with STRONG sun. 

It's a frigid 40 at DCA right now at 11am.  We will blow past the forecast high of 42. Yes, there is a H up north. Just with a very unimpressive airmass here. Folks are free to live and die by each model wobble but we have seen this movie before. Sure, it will start frozen but one of those scenarios will a little white on the grass in the AM slowly disappears as you go inside the beltway to cartoppers and then inside DC itself a little slush on the windshields. Then a very quick changeover and that is that. The immediate DC metro is meh at best.

I admit to not really knowing PHL and NYC climo  (hell, I barely understand ours) but I cannot understand how PHL and NYC don't mix substantially with that L track.

Just observing what is going on right now in my simpleton mind is reason enough to conclude this is a whole lot of nothing here.  There is no Arctic airmass. We had clear skies and dews around 20, and DCA barely sniffed freezing last night- busted on the forecast low of 29. High today supposed to be 42, probably hit 45 give or take a degree.  The point is there might be a H in Canada, but it not a "Canadian" high.  Everyone talks about CAD being under modeled and slow to retreat. Sure- when it is COLD air damning, not COOl air damning. We basically are entering the storm with a seasonal to perhaps slightly below normal airmass and a ton of air from very mild waters ready to flood in.  So sure, with low dews we may wet bulb at the start so we see flakes flying at the outset, but this will likely be a very quick changeover and a lot of wet roads. Anything on the backside will be luck. Just observations from nearly half a century in the immediate metro.

3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

DC Beltway gets a last moment stick save at 3z with the back side whitening the ground on the 3km.

Hopefully as big a save as game 2 in Vegas 2 years ago, but more likely one where it still trickles in and we lose

4 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

You should post more.  

Thanks.

Maybe I will. Will try to bring good luck. We need everything to go right in every storm yet PHL just 120 miles away gets a foot when someone sneezes. 
 

Only holding out hope bc we have seen where changeovers don’t happen as modeled. 2/25/07 was supposed to switch over,  2/10/10 even was supposed to. Obviously much different set ups, airmasses and times of year, but predicting 850 and 925 marches can be tricky. 

That said, anything white on the ground Thursday morning inside the beltway would be a win. 

I don’t post much bc I’m not that smart, but nearly 50 years of DC living and I’ve seen this movie before. Supposed to be 29 tonight. Probably won’t drop below 35 at DCA. Then tomorrow will hit 45 easily. Then start to drop, then clouds build in hold temp above freezing and even if dews are low we get 30 minutes in the AM of snow that melts on contact and then it switches over and game set match. 
 
we have barely touched freezing this season, the track sucks, the airmass sucks, the water temps suck. 

This storm feels like walking  up a down escalator. With PHL and NYC butts staring down at us from the top.

some dendrites now in Wheaton now. good rates as well. 

Still just small flakes that are only slowly accumulating here in Wheaton. rates decent but not making a huge difference.

Radar looks good but still just small flakes. Not piling up quickly. Still beautiful out. just wish intensity would pick up and get better dendrites and better rates. 

22 minutes ago, GEOS5ftw said:

Didn't realize there were so many of us in close proximity. I'm near N Belgrade/Hillsboro and measured 1" at around 7:15, roads and sidewalks around me were covered at that point.

Covered all over Kemp Mill now. Was just driving on KM road and it is covered. sides as well. Decent rates, but small flakes for now.