RCNYILWX

Take it to the bank Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

The 12z EPS already was already a slight improvement from the 00z run out in the extended, with Aleutian ridging farther east and more poleward. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

The 12z Euro solution really underscores how much time there is until we'll have a better grasp on the eventual outcome. Slower ejection of the main wave from the southwest allowed for more suppression by the northern stream and blocking. The million dollar question is can we find the sweet spot between the blocking exerting an influence but not too much and the southern stream wave timing. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

In general, yes, it also matters the position of the troughing in the EPO domain (northeast Pac) as to how hostile a pattern it is. When there's a strong PV lobe parked over much of Alaska, it's pretty much game set match, which is what happened in 2011-12. Moving forward, it's important to keep some Aleutian ridging to allow for cold air to get closer to our source region. The background pattern on the end of the last few ensemble runs is definitely a milder look with a +EPO, but possibly not a death knell if the troughing sets up far enough east/southeast in the EPO domain, particularly if the -AO/-NAO continue. Took a look at the MJO phase plot forecasts, with GEFS and to a greater extent the ECMWF, wanting to pop it into phase 6, a warmer phase for Feb, which probably helps explain the +EPO tendency late in the ensemble runs. I'm certainly not a MJO expert, but from what I do know, the lower the amplitude of the MJO wave, the weaker the influence on the pattern, which makes sense. Even the guidance that pops it into phase 6 are showing a pretty low amplitude, while the bias corrected GEFS keeps it basically in the COD, and the CFS suggests p7, a mild but not as warm phase for Feb (p7 composite looks fairly similar to mod-strong La Nina base state). Since it took quite a while to get to a -EPO and was delayed a bit from earlier forecasts, perhaps there's reason to think a quick reversion to +EPO might be rushed as well.

I think we're probably too far out to call individual operational run changes trends, though today's 12z runs thus far are a better look to get us what we want late this weekend into early next week. Can see the influence of the strong NAO block in those solutions.

I'm only commenting on the end of the EPS and GEFS which have shown unfavorable trends last few runs. It's quite possible they're rushing things, happens in both directions with the pattern out in the extended. The best we can say is that there's still dateline ridging and still NAO blocking, but we need the ridging near AK to stay farther east. It's possible that pattern shown verbatim is active, though with a milder risk.

Can't sugarcoat the trends on the ensembles out at the end of their ranges, not good. Hopefully they're rushing things. Either way, if pattern does revert to more hostile, highlights the importance of cashing in with the 25th-26th. I still want to believe that some of the operational runs are being too aggressive with the amped cutter look because it occurs when the west based NAO block is at its strongest. The system coming quickly on the heels of a 1035 mb high overhead and the high being close by during the precip elevates the chance for a zone of freezing rain and sleet if the synoptic system is pretty amped. What's interesting about this winter is that I really wasn't optimistic going in. The unexpected sustained -AO/-NAO gave some hope, but thus far hasn't worked out in a beneficial way. Shows the importance of a good Pacific pattern. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

@beavis1729 It's one thing to wish you could get the perfect winter, but to rant every winter how that's the way it should be when that's just not possible wears thin on people. If your life circumstances don't allow you to move to your ideal winter climo, idk what it accomplishes to rail on a climo that never existed here and never will, other than prompting other members to troll your rants. Another thing to consider is that we have pretty easy access to places that get much more snow and continuous snow cover than here. Plus, 35-40" in an average winter for a metro area of this size is a decent winter climo. Just think of the winter/snow lovers who have to relocate due to their job to somewhere in the south where it rarely snows. I think some perspective is needed if you don't want people to snark at you.

. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

More complete write-up in my AFD today, but a few points here: we think the Kuchera ratios are low-balling tomorrow. Kuchera is based off the max wet bulb T from sfc to 500 mb, and warmest temps will be at the sfc. The flaw in the method is that when the DGZ is deep like tomorrow but sfc temps not that cold, it doesn't adjust for favorably deep DGZ, it's strictly based off MaxT aloft. The Cobb method is preferred and averages 15:1, which is what WPC also preferred in their assessment, while the Kuchera is only 9 or 10:1. ECMWF and NAMs have been in good agreement on that corridor of up to or slightly over 0.2" LE, which should fluff up to spots of 3"+ when accounting for the ratio. Our graphic is using a little bit of creative license because in reality the highest total I forecast within the CWA is 2.8", but we went broad in public facing message because if that 0.2"+ LE does occur, then 3"+ amounts are pretty likely. Another wild card is lake enhancement, which actually looks fairly decent for once. We'll see shortly what 00z CAMs show but the 18z NAMs and 12z NMM showed a wind shift to north behind sfc trough passage, which really increases the convergence, plus thermos being solid enough. Above models got the lake enhancement onto IL side for a few hours and then settled into NW IN. Could be a nice bonus wherever that sets up.

I noticed that the 12z run had something wrong with the output, looked like the coding of the data they get caused QPF to come in at 10x higher. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

I look at this season as somewhat similar to 2012-13 thus far. That winter was mild in December through mid Jan, but did have two much better events than anything in most of the sub this winter (MSN ~2 ft dump, and warning criteria event in IND CWA on 12/26. The Chicago metro simply had wretched luck that season. ORD went into Feb with I think under 3" and finished up at 30.1 or something. The north suburbs had a huge Feb 2013 and then we finally all scored a regional warning event on March 5th. Bad luck came back to bite us again with the miss south for the storm in mid to late March that gave SPI 18". If we maintain some semblance of blocking (and recall Feb-March 2013 had a legit -NAO) in Feb and the pattern otherwise goes more classic La Nina, could be a decent month. I think 25-30" is a reasonable call at this vantage point. For our winter outlook, we went near normal, and I'll stick with that for now. If the potential late next weekend into early the week after works out, that would really help get the seasonal total back in a respectable range. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Are you right in the town of McHenry? We can send your report as an LSR once you have your final measurement. Nice to have a mini event that performed exactly to expectations. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Well that's part of the equation, the not having cold air deal, which is certainly the case now, has good ens support in finally changing for the better. The 12z EPS seemed to trend stronger in spiking ridging to and north of AK next week and the GEFS has been favoring that consistently, so that should get cross polar flow going in concert with continued Arctic and Atlantic domain blocking, along with -PNA keeping a steady stream of shortwaves coming ashore. There's nothing like the black hole AK vortex +++EPO from 2011-12 in the offing and since the ensembles haven't trended away from a colder and active look as the period has gotten closer, not inclined to punt now. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

It's the same thing every winter and considering how the models can't nail down events within 2 days, suggest not to get all worked up over operational runs beyond day 4-5. Looking at the ensembles, see no reason to back off from idea of getting into a favorable stretch for at least a solid event or two. Still would not rule out the Thursday-Friday overrunning setup from coming back into play. It hinges upon whether northern stream trough digs in too quick and confluence over the region shreds everything south, and I certainly wouldn't bank on the operational models having this nailed down 6 days out. Best signal in the ensembles is next weekend into early the following week, with a trough ejecting out of the southwest. This is the timeframe when the ensemble mean shows a biggest jump in snowfall, so a bunch of members are contributing to that. Obviously full spectrum of outcomes on the table including suppression, but on the other hand would still think the NAO helps prevent a full fledged warm cutter. Finally, the most recent ECMWF weeklies came in much less mild than the previous run due to a continuation of Arctic and Atlantic blocking. This winter has certainly been frustrating and I'm not really trying to be overly optimistic, just honest about predictability that far out. If and until the ensembles back off from their active look, I'd again recommend against using operational models to make definitive statements about nothing good happening 5-7+ days out. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Drove under one on the way to work, rippage with huge flakes. 1/2 mile or less visibility and instantly coated the road. Bodes well for the rest of the day. SPS going out now. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

The operational ECMWF was the second strongest member of the 12z Euro suite. One other member down to 972 mb over northern Lake Michigan. Most were in the 1000s or 990s and farther east. That's probably a good indicator of the op solution being a lower probability scenario. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Tomorrow looks fun on the 00z HRRR. Been quite a while since we've had a solid convective snow shower setup. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

The SQW has a wind component so I don't think we would be issuing one unless it's really ripping under a few of the snow showers tomorrow. That plus temps being near to slightly above 32F should mitigate road impacts some as well. That said, I think we could see 30-40 dbz popcorn tomorrow. If snow shower coverage is more widespread and we're getting higher end impacts, could envision a short fused WWA vs SQW. On order of likelihood of product issuance tomorrow, I'd go SPS, WWA and then very remote chance of SQW.

I'd lean miss south being more likely than a cutter/rainer like 12z Euro but I think we're right in the envelope for a decent event with the late next week potential. Conceptually it looks more conducive to an overrunning scenario with a weaker surface wave like the GFS and the GEM are showing. Really doubting a 979 mb low north of Detroit next Friday. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Yeah, things definitely went the other way for anything meaningful into this evening. All but the far NW burbs hard pressed to get any accums. As has already been discussed, tomorrow's snow showers could produce some nice bursts at times. Liking late tomorrow night into Sat AM for an inch or two on the backside of the upper low and Sunday currently looks favorable for up to a couple inches. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

I'd be surprised with that depiction cutting that far north into the strong NAO block. At this distance would rather it shows a strong system and ptype issues rather than a miss south like the previous run. The huge swing between 00z and 12z also highlights the variance at that range anyway. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Since I was part of the forecast process (I issued LOT's watch for the event), GHD II is easily one of my favorites, favorable trends right up until the snow started falling. If we're going to break the schneid, the upcoming pattern is what you'd like to see. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

The painful miss just east/southeast on 2/24/16 really seemed to set us on this bad luck streak that we've been on, minus some exceptions in the 2017-18 and 2018-19 cold seasons. I still feel optimistic about scoring during the upcoming pattern, but if we don't, then it's really just not our winter. Bad luck certainly happens, it doesn't make it easier to take for snow lovers though. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Yep, the way our Federalist system works is that the states have a lot of power and autonomy. So they were always going to have a large role in the vaccine rollout. That said, agree, the federal government could and should have done much much more to organize the effort among the states, this is literally the largest vaccination campaign in our history. In past crises, we didn't essentially tell the states, "good luck" . Also it's a failure of Congress to not provide much needed funds for vaccine distribution until the recently passed relief bill. The failures of the initial vaccine rollout are similar to the failure of the federal govt to help organize the testing regime after the CDC fiasco with the test kits back in February. Yet another example in which our outcomes have been worse than they could've been. Don't think there's any way we avoid a large number of deaths from this virus, but even 100-150k less when it's all said and done would've been that many lives saved and that many less families in anguish, not to mention less people having spent time alone in the hospital battling the virus, and less people with long term health impacts.