yoda

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Gfs done lost its mind at 186 lol.  Gfs keeps spitting out these snow hurricane solutions. 

Only 50 to 60 kts at 925mb 

1 minute ago, yoda said:

Da Fook?  7 closed contour 522dm h5 low over HSE?

9 closed contour h5?  Get out 

Da Fook?  7 closed contour 522dm h5 low over HSE?

I feel like we need Scorpion to appear on this run from mortal kombat

Is that s/w crashing the ridge out west going to ruin us at 162?  Or is that nothing to worry about?

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I like the amplitude of the ridge out west better. Should help this dig more which SHOULD help the phase happen further south and about the NS miller b issue. 

It's much better at 156 18z compared to 12z... so it should be... as it is our perfect zone

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Yea not sure how this trade off will play out. 
like: slower, west

dont like: more suppressive flow, but maybe it’s just slower to pump ridging. 

The ridging out west is further east than 12z at 144... but it's a tad weaker

18z looks a little slower than 12z I think?  Which might be good... I hope 

Just now, snowfan said:

Chopin > Beethoven

It was nice knowing you

6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Welcome to the 18z Hunger Games!  

Icon looks better vs 12z at H5...still looks too broad tho..hard to tell since it stops at 120

1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

What do we have to do to sharpen it? Asking the weenie Gods 

I'm just going to leave this here and let the jokes and memes roll in lol

2 hours ago, stormtracker said:

Nice hit on the Euro. 8-12" across the forum probably gonna be more but cuts off...but..Day 10. Sigh

Yup... but @ORH_wxman called it a KU look... so lock it in now folks! 

Who has the 168 ukie?  I know SV or another site usually has it

I think this would be good down the line?  RE 12Z UKIE 

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Do not look at the CMC

Its garbage for everyone, even SNE 

24 minutes ago, Snowfan96 said:

Yes!  Right now, it seems one of these two outcomes is most plausible: The track stays far enough east with little to no impact, or it phases but then tracks inland as a cutter (much like last weekend) - which could still bring some wintry precip but nothing too significant.

Maybe so... but the ridge out west was in good placement... alot of our big storms happen when the placement of the ridge is out there through Utah

1 hour ago, jayyy said:

 

Right on queue. 

Less than a foot actually lol.  But at least it's something to watch over the next week

Ridge is a bit to far east for my liking at 168

5 minutes ago, jayyy said:

An op run showing a big snowstorm 8 days out is irrelevant as to whether or not it happens. You’re talking as if these are curses - like opening a storm thread.

We’ve seen plenty of storms over the years get modeled 8-10 days out and come to fruition. Exactly as depicted? Of course not. We’ve seen storms get sniffed out early, lost, only to come back again. We have seen storms get sniffed out early and remain on models throughout. Pretty sure one of those dropped like 3 feet of snow in your house in Jan of 2016? We’ve also seen storms materialize in under 48 hours before. 
 

You can’t live and die by each run. You know that. Big differences between 12z to 0z when you’re 7+ days away is absolutely meaningless.  

 

My comment of nothing at all was to Ralph in stating that the mean showed nothing even when that was a really good image.  Even when psu posted his image, the GEFS was unimpressed.  I saw what happened with the last storm, i.e. the EURO leading us on for a few days before it went to nothing.  I am not expecting anything and am as of now just taking cursory glances and posts

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We’re calling 6” “not much” now?  When did we become Boston???

I'm not, my mistake in wording in my post if you are thinking that.  I was more trying to say that the storms that do show up aren't big ones.  I would take 2-4 anyday

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

My timing suspicions seem to be confirmed by the gefs. Several hits do eventually show up…but they are a day or two AFTER the members that hit New England with a Miller b like the op.  

I only see like 4 or 5 that even give the DC region 6" of snow through 264... so even if they do show up, its not much/very many at all

21 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Better looking ridge out in the pna region thru 132 on the gefs vs 18z:

Shows nothing for us at all

6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

CMC skanks us..shit storm moves too far east

UKIE is a miss wide right as well

Just now, dryslot said:

Its going bananas like george.

Lol 192 and 195 would destroy Boston

Lol another new solution from the 00z GFS... at least we have nice placement of the ridge out west 

3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Northern stream kills it soon after

Gets ripped apart right after 120 lol