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yoda

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    January Medium/Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

    ECMWF still looks good to me. I wouldn't go parsing too many details for a 06z run, but even then, it looked like it was going to amplify pretty well in the subsequent frames. GFS is slowly getting into a Euro look, but it's not as aggressive with the northern stream vort and it's still holding back that southern stream piece more than the Euro, but it's sped up in recent runs. This still has snow for some of our sub, at the very minimum. Love the banana high look over top. Cold air will not be the problem with this one. 

    Thank you 

    • Like 1

    January Medium/Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Morning AFD from LWX 

    .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
To conclude the work week, the longwave pattern will feature an 
upper ridge across the eastern Pacific with a myriad of shortwaves 
tracking between the Intermountain West and Mississippi Valley. 
Resolving the complexity of these impulses will be the key to 
determining the level of threat a winter storm poses to the region 
late Friday into Saturday.

On Friday morning, conditions should be quite chilly in the wake of 
the cold frontal passage 24 hours prior. A seasonably cold surface 
ridge sets up from the Great Lakes up into Quebec with pressures 
around 1041-1043 mb. Starting off, temperatures are forecast to be 
in the teens east of the Blue Ridge/Catoctins, with single digits 
off to the west. If any residual wind persists, there may be a 
threat for wind chill headlines over the Alleghenies where forecasts 
call for -5 to -15 degree readings. Clouds will be on the increase 
as southwesterly flow aloft steers a shield of mid/high level 
moisture toward the Eastern Seaboard. Expect plenty of clouds with 
highs struggling to escape the low/mid 20s in many spots.

The looming question heading into the weekend is whether it will 
snow, and exactly how much will fall. The 00Z deterministic model 
suite all show a surface low forming in the vicinity of the 
southeastern U.S. coast by Friday evening. Surveying the ensemble 
low plots from the 00Z GEFS/EPS/CMC means yields plenty of menacing 
low tracks for a Mid-Atlantic snowstorm. Most notably, the EPS 
members are more numerous and deeper than the other solutions. This 
will continue to be monitored in the days ahead as the parent 
shortwave currently appears as an innocuous wave over far northern 
Alberta. Until it moves into a denser observation network, 
uncertainty will continue to plague the forecast. One thing that is 
a sure bet is it will be cold heading into Saturday morning with 
temperatures in the teens to low 20s.

For Saturday, the high temperature forecast will highly dependent on 
the storm track with any resultant snowpack. It does seem certain to 
be chilly with temperatures around 8 to 13 degrees below average. 
Conditions remain on the colder side through the remainder of the 
weekend and into early next week. The upper pattern changes very 
little with the stagnant ridge over the eastern Pacific and broad 
cyclonic flow over northeastern North America. Reinforcing shots of 
cold air will arrive with each passing disturbance. This keeps 
forecast highs in the 30s on Sunday into Monday with the mountains 
confined to the 20s. Overnight lows stay well below average as well 
with temperatures in the 10s to low 20s. For the Saturday and Sunday 
period, the winds will be dependent on the coastal low track. So the 
forecast has been kept more conservative given the degree of 
uncertainty.
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