WeatherNC

GFS soundings are all snow at PGV, don't have the off hours but atleast from 42-54hrs. NAM is shorts weather, I will ride the GFS until the Euro tells me to break out the sun screen here in a few.

Given the strength (or lack there of) of the SLP and proximity to the coast, I am going to call BS (at the moment) on these SN IP ZR transition zones, it is either going to be rain or snow with a slim corridor of mixing. This fits climo of a Miller A.

I think PGV is screwed, advisory type deal.

Greenville gets blanked on the 12z RGEM too, nice

NAM has basically no snow here, I think it's time to start panicking

Atleast on the GFS we are good here for the duration, about 25 miles to spare. The strength of the low and absence of a bonified 850 are keeping the warm punch in check. I would give caution though to folks using those stock 10:1 snow maps, the snow flag does not descrimnate between IP ZR or SN.

Wrong Forum? Maybe twitter?

NAM must have got wind of that Winter Storm Watch WFO Birmingham issued.

I do think wide spread single digits are likely Sunday night, I can count on one hand that occurrence here over the past 12 years.

Kind of concerned that the 15z SREF mean for RWI is 1" with only a couple NMBs biting.

What a terd

EE rule, lock it up... Dependent on the changeover with meager QPF, feel like I have seen this show before, somewhere.

Funny how the guidance is starting to converge on a middle of the road solution, split between the two extremes we saw this weekend, insanity, I know. Anxiously awaiting the ensuing panic once the slight NW correction sets in inside 48.

I miss a good old fashioned warm punch centered around 900mb, 2-3C will check expectations quickly for those fortunate enough.

Much more and you could be mixing too..

Is it too soon to start talking about 850 track?

It will, great job Burger and QC, and everyone else who contributes! We are going to have the winter forecasts up top for a couple more days, but I will tag this one, as well as the etiquette disco so we can pull them out as needed. Been a crazy day, and the night shaping up likewise. I will bust out the Mac tomorrow and do a couple write-ups for this, namely H5 maps (how to read, isohypses, vorticity, pos vs neg tilt troughs, etc) and another on how to use thickness plots to determine dominant precip type, that is unless someone beats me to it. Quick note: I like the idea of Burger putting all this in the first post, helps tremendously when new users click on the thread, it is right in front of them compared to the bottom of page 1, or a couple pages in. Again thank you!

Felt it here in Greenville NC, whole house shook, wife was like "Earthquake," I said hell no, should have listened.