WeatherNC

I find that the UK and Ecmwf can over amplify things inside a day or two, NAM too, atleast that is what I am telling myself right now.

Only thing going for me is a 4x4 and a full tank of gas.

GFS soundings are all snow at PGV, don't have the off hours but atleast from 42-54hrs. NAM is shorts weather, I will ride the GFS until the Euro tells me to break out the sun screen here in a few.

Given the strength (or lack there of) of the SLP and proximity to the coast, I am going to call BS (at the moment) on these SN IP ZR transition zones, it is either going to be rain or snow with a slim corridor of mixing. This fits climo of a Miller A.

I think PGV is screwed, advisory type deal.

Greenville gets blanked on the 12z RGEM too, nice

NAM has basically no snow here, I think it's time to start panicking

Atleast on the GFS we are good here for the duration, about 25 miles to spare. The strength of the low and absence of a bonified 850 are keeping the warm punch in check. I would give caution though to folks using those stock 10:1 snow maps, the snow flag does not descrimnate between IP ZR or SN.

Wrong Forum? Maybe twitter?

NAM must have got wind of that Winter Storm Watch WFO Birmingham issued.

I do think wide spread single digits are likely Sunday night, I can count on one hand that occurrence here over the past 12 years.

Kind of concerned that the 15z SREF mean for RWI is 1" with only a couple NMBs biting.

What a terd

EE rule, lock it up... Dependent on the changeover with meager QPF, feel like I have seen this show before, somewhere.

Funny how the guidance is starting to converge on a middle of the road solution, split between the two extremes we saw this weekend, insanity, I know. Anxiously awaiting the ensuing panic once the slight NW correction sets in inside 48.

I miss a good old fashioned warm punch centered around 900mb, 2-3C will check expectations quickly for those fortunate enough.

Much more and you could be mixing too..

Is it too soon to start talking about 850 track?

here's a couple more

I am pinning this thread again as we head into the home stretch of what was a train-wreck & subsequent hazmat spill kind on winter. Most are already aware of the posting etiquette, however, some may be new and others may have forgot. I understand the absence of winter weather can be taxing, our SE sub forum is no exception in the hair-pulling/bickering/etc, I assure you it is happening all over. However, the time has come to start clamping down, so consider this a warning. These are some posts from the med-long range thread just from the last few days. Many were reported by our members and deleted, and others were just deleted by staff without a report. This is an example(s) of what not to post in the weather threads, and for the sake of transparency, these were the entire posts, not just an excerpt of what someone wrote. I already have a short list of repeat offenders and if we have another report/have to delete another post they make, pm will be coming after the timeout/limited posting tag is on. Even if you do not think this applies to you, please take a moment to refresh over QC's post top of page 1. We will be dishing out timeouts and limited posting privileges first, answering questions later, warning giveth. Thank you This one is just an excerpt. Any political speech wx-side is a big no-no, violation of board rules. Take it to OT/PR, next time I see/here about it, the person is out for an extended forecast. "do not act like a Republican" http://www.americanw...tion=boardrules

It will, great job Burger and QC, and everyone else who contributes! We are going to have the winter forecasts up top for a couple more days, but I will tag this one, as well as the etiquette disco so we can pull them out as needed. Been a crazy day, and the night shaping up likewise. I will bust out the Mac tomorrow and do a couple write-ups for this, namely H5 maps (how to read, isohypses, vorticity, pos vs neg tilt troughs, etc) and another on how to use thickness plots to determine dominant precip type, that is unless someone beats me to it. Quick note: I like the idea of Burger putting all this in the first post, helps tremendously when new users click on the thread, it is right in front of them compared to the bottom of page 1, or a couple pages in. Again thank you!