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Everything posted by WeatherNC

  1. That's max precip, please stop trolling weenie bait on a downrigger.
  2. Down to 12 here just before 11pm, dropped about 4 degrees in the past hour.
  3. MHX write-up is pretty solid for this range, much more developed than it use to be.
  4. Melting aloft is a limiting process, dependent on the depth of the nose. Around here we are used to toasty, and an inflection point that sets up to the west.
  5. You're in bulls-eye <4 days out but its still not a good place to be, even on the Euro with the vorts in question not yet onshore and RAOB sampled. There are still going to be some shifts before things start to settle down tomorrow at 12z. We are not that far (3-6hrs in timing) from taking a moderate band of snow down the Coastal Plain in to SC with a heavy snowfall in NE NC and SE VA. I was able to dig up some 2010 vort maps, one would argue this is going to be east of that event but not my much when taking in to account the ridge axis out west. The backside vort in 2010 was however in a much more favorable position to phase with the leading shortwave, plus there was not energy trailing out which is the reason for a current double barreled look. Some of said the leading energy is feedback, it very well could be, but is looks like enhancement of a coastal frontal boundary along the Gulf, with the leading shortwave not catching a weak surface reflection off the EC of FL in time. One would want to see this feature weaken over the next 24-48hrs, along with a turn to a slight neg tilt of the primary shortwave west of the FL Panhandle. The NW trend is real, we are seeing some significant jumps for a 96hr lead but lets not forget the minor NW adjustments we usually see inside 48hrs.
  6. In 2010 the backside parcel was much more discrete and phasing occurred over the NW Gulf Coast, just east of the Mississippi. I have RAP graphics somewhere I will try to dig up. If memory serves entry points in to CONUS for both vorts were slightly west of what is being showed here, the leading vort was also a good bit stronger than this one.
  7. It lost the double barrel low and based on the isobars at 87 hours there is some evidence it wants to tuck the dominant surface low further to the wsw, which would be closer to the natural baroclinic zone from the Gulf Stream.
  8. GFS should be mighty close this run looking at H5 at 72hrs.
  9. There’s a kicker plus a late injection of the northern stream which helps to straighten the shortwave. Either one would help to turn it quicker if the timing is sooner. The shortwave in question is a pretty good CONUS entry point for the Coastal Carolinas around Glacier Falls National Park, the piece behind it is pretty weak and could be transient with the next model run. I would like to see more northern stream interaction a little quicker vs being dependent on a backside vort to pull the turning axis back west. 18z GFS was not far off, but when is that new.
  10. It's a stock 10:1 with snow flag triggered which does not incorporate a mixed bag. Just looking at H5 amoms, unsure if we do that anymore. The difference between the 0 and 12z GFS is pretty striking. The lack of a retrograding SE ridge allows for less amplification of the trough in to the MS valley, a result of the ULL being flattened in upper Plains.
  11. If the Euro follows suit then yes, still a little too early to tell but navigating this tight rope is similar to the 1st week of March.
  12. 3km NAM looks like a solid SVR outbreak, 12km NAM on the other hand looks like a classic Carolina split.
  13. I don't know if it's the cold or what but when I take my iPhone outside, fully charged, it dies in a matter of minutes and acts like it needs recharged. Took a walk down the main strip in this town, pretty cool, lots of little food joints but none are open. Soup, goldfish and a halo are what's for dinner.
  14. Nope, I wouldn't even know how to measure this man, we did flip to IP for about an hour at the height of it, back to fatties but the wind and rates have dropped off. Eating lunch and then going for a Jeb walk. There was a couple hour period where we pushed near whiteout , I will see if Ted can post some picks/video. It it took us 2.5hrs to get the last 60 miles here, the last 20 or so miles once we got off the PA turnpike were straight hairy, could not see the road and twisting and turning, I had to at times take it mailbox by mailbox.
  15. Stand corrected on the storm total, Mt Holly is reporting 23" as of 11am AFD.
  16. Starting to mix dendrites back in, we would have made a run at 2' if it weren't for the flip, thinking 18-20" storm total, 3'+ drifts .
  17. CC out of both BGM and DIX confirm the flip, be great of heights crashed right about now.
  18. Even with the IP, the wind is really doing a number on visibilities, still a couple hundred feet but the fatties are gone, all gone, and the band is overhead :-(
  19. Just puking snow out, visibility is a couple hundred feet tops, near whiteout when the wind gusts.
  20. Getting kind of blizzy out, western edge of the death band and flake size as well as wind have increased markedly. Solid 2"+ rates