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WeatherNC

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    December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    13 minutes ago, chapelhillwx said:

    Took a personal day and going to be chasing this one Sunday am into Monday. Will be interesting to see where to go. Asheville would be convenient from Atlanta but I’m not sure that’s failsafe. Any ideas guys? Glad to be back on the forum again! 

    Somewhere along a line from Charlottesville to Asheville, I am currently looking at the area around Sparta.  Still have to Friday to hammer down specifics. I did order a new snow shovel on Amazon, professional grade.

    • Like 1

    December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

    I think the FV3 needs alot  of work. I wouldnt  count  on that considering it seems much worse than the regular GFS.

    Snow output is a fool’s errand at this early stage, regardless of the model.  The Euro does show 2-3” liquid equivalent in the same general vicinity which is significant.

    • Like 2

    December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

    RAH is being too bold.

    3 paragraph essay with the long term... 

    .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 420 PM Sunday...

Given the complexity of the forecast flow aloft across the CONUS
this week, there not surprisingly remains amplitude and timing
differences with individual shortwave perturbations embedded within
that flow. While the GFS remains a deep outlier with respect to 500
mb heights over the cntl Appalachians/middle Atlantic at 00Z-12Z
Wed, it has trended toward an otherwise relatively good model
consensus during that time; and the associated QPF signal east of
the Appalachians in recent days is consequently absent, or very
light. As such, no measurable precipitation will be forecast in cntl
NC at this time, with instead a chance of sprinkles over the
Piedmont Tue night, and again over the ne Piedmont and nrn Coastal
Plain with diurnal heating Wed, related to the passage of a
secondary shortwave trough and associated similarly strong height
falls and mid level Fgen. As previously noted, any very light
resulting precipitation during either time would be liquid based on
forecast (wet bulb) thermal profiles.

It will otherwise be colder through the end of the week, as the
trough aloft and cP high pressure migrate ewd across the srn
Appalachians and sern US - coldest Thu, when highs will be in the
40s and lows solidly in the 20s. A reinforcing cold front, and
leading edge of a fresh, stronger cP high, will then move swd
through VA/NC late Fri-Fri night, setting the stage for the arrival
of a srn stream system, or two, next weekend.

The ewd progression of the parent, significant closed low forecast to
migrate through split flow across the ern N Pacific, to near srn CA
by the end of the week, has slowed in recent model cycles - perhaps
not surprisingly given that such closed lows often take longer to
eject ewd than what the models would suggest. As such, the arrival
of resultant precipitation in cntl NC will likely be slower than
previously indicated, particularly so given the presence of the
aforementioned cP high and dryness extending from the upr Midwest,
ewd and then swd in damming fashion east of the Appalachians.
While forecast details remain uncertain, pattern recognition with a
favorably positioned, cold high, and significant cyclogenesis from
the GOM to the sern and middle Atlantic coast, favors wintry
precipitation over the middle Atlantic states, including
particularly the climatologically-favored areas of cntl NC. Given
the time range and uncertainty, forecast p-types of only rain and
snow will be included at this time. However, there would most likely
be some degree of broader mixed p-type transition zones given that
the parent trough aloft is forecast to remain west of the
Appalachians through the weekend, with probable mid level warming
across portions of the Carolinas.

&&

     

    October 2018 Observations

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    1 hour ago, yotaman said:

    In the warm sector of the storm now. Currently 64/63. Rainfall up to 1.02" and it is raining hard once again. Our 1st significant rain since Florence.

    Same here, 63/61 with an E wind 8 G 28.  Spent most of the morning in the mid 40's, pretty impressive for late October. 

    Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    26 minutes ago, AJF0602 said:

    Jones onslow haha and man even though its a cat one these winds are so strong right now, you step outside and all you can smell is fresh pine.

    Let’s be honest, sub 960 on a Cat 1 is BS.  Not sure when the NHC will get the impact equation right but ~1 minute sustained is not the answer as you are currently witness to.

    • Like 2
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