WeatherNC

RGEM now showing ZR here tomorrow night, that's a nice change.  Could be around lunchtime on Saturday before we have a sub zero column.

ORF to GSP, great run if you are west of that line, Richmond gets smoked.

Should we be concerned that the short range ensemble forecast products are now jackpotting central VA?

11 minutes ago, Supercane said:

The NAM bothers me. But if I had to pick 1 model to not be on my side, it'd be the NAM.

Yeah, I would pick the NAM too.

7 minutes ago, No snow for you said:

Cold rain?

Soundings look like solid IP, several inches worth.

It's sleeting out currently, sign of things to come?

I am split between Roxboro and Ahoskie - Gatesville, still some time but the logistics are different.  Roxboro I would leave tomorrow night and stay overnight, come back Saturday evening.  NE NC I will leave Saturday before sun up and just come back in the evening.  Merchants Millpond is always open so that has me interested plus a nice blend of outdoor activities, good Jeb walk material.  I think the chance of seeing a foot is moderate which is enough for sails up.

I find that the UK and Ecmwf can over amplify things inside a day or two, NAM too, atleast that is what I am telling myself right now.

Only thing going for me is a 4x4 and a full tank of gas.

GFS soundings are all snow at PGV, don't have the off hours but atleast from 42-54hrs.  NAM is shorts weather, I will ride the GFS until the Euro tells me to break out the sun screen here in a few.

Given the strength (or lack there of) of the SLP and proximity to the coast, I am going to call BS (at the moment) on these SN IP ZR transition zones, it is either going to be rain or snow with a slim corridor of mixing.  This fits climo of a Miller A.

I think PGV is screwed, advisory type deal.

Greenville gets blanked on the 12z RGEM too, nice 

NAM has basically no snow here, I think it's time to start panicking 

Just now, superjames1992 said:

I wouldn't think surface temps themselves will be an issue, but sneaky warm layers elsewhere could be - 925 mb, 750-800 mb.  It seems these levels are most prone to screwing us over in the South, based on my limited experience.

Atleast on the GFS we are good here for the duration, about 25 miles to spare.  The strength of the low and absence of a bonified 850 are keeping the warm punch in check.  I would give caution though to folks using those stock 10:1 snow maps, the snow flag does not descrimnate between IP ZR or SN.  

2 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Am I the only one getting a Forbidden error on SouthernWx right now? Not posting a link. This is not spam

Wrong Forum?  Maybe twitter?

NAM must have got wind of that Winter Storm Watch WFO Birmingham issued.

2 minutes ago, superjames1992 said:

Cold is almost always overdone with snowpack, IMO.

I do think wide spread single digits are likely Sunday night, I can count on one hand that occurrence here over the past 12 years. 

Kind of concerned that the 15z SREF mean for RWI is 1" with only a couple NMBs biting.

What a terd

EE rule, lock it up...

Dependent on the changeover with meager QPF, feel like I have seen this show before, somewhere.

Funny how the guidance is starting to converge on a middle of the road solution, split between the two extremes we saw this weekend, insanity, I know.

Anxiously awaiting the ensuing panic once the slight NW correction sets in inside 48.

I miss a good old fashioned warm punch centered around 900mb, 2-3C will check expectations quickly for those fortunate enough.

3 minutes ago, YetAnotherRDUGuy said:

#NWtrendFTW 

Much more and you could be mixing too..

Is it too soon to start talking about 850 track?