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southmdwatcher

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  1. southmdwatcher
    Today seems to be a discrete storm mode, question for us will be if that can occur tomorrow and hold on for an evening Bay breeze or low level jet?
  2. southmdwatcher
    North of Baltimore, and northeastward through Philadelphia to central NJ could have quite a rough evening. Storm mode looks to stay discrete as storms continue to move east southeast towards the areas of best parameters as the day/evening progresses. Tomorrow could be quite a rough day in our area.
  3. southmdwatcher
    6z 3kNAM shows scattered severe storms rolling through our region between 18z and 21z. 9z HRRR run shows similar scenario with more storms. 10z HRRR run was much more quiet. The MCS is in western Ohio and southern Indiana, We should see some decent storms later today.
  4. southmdwatcher
    I am in Alexandria and the sun is trying to break through here right now as well.
  5. southmdwatcher
    74 degrees and breaks of good sun coming north.from Charles County
  6. southmdwatcher
    6Z 3km NAM shows the strongest 850mb winds are running through VA later this afternoon. CAPE of 1000-1500 runs Fredericksburg and then southward.
  7. southmdwatcher
    We shall see what SPC and Sterling have to say over the next few hours. The lapse rates over us now are quite strong. That will move out as we head towards morning. The sun will definitely be out for some period of time tomorrow, just a matter of how long and whether a new batch of prefrontal storms breaks out and squashes any substantial buildup of instability. The timing of the event across AL/MS is slightly quicker than was expected. That throws wrinkles into our forecast tomorrow.
  8. southmdwatcher
    That was from 15Z run of SREF, this is 21Z
  9. southmdwatcher
    Day 3 Slight with Enhanced off to the south.
  10. southmdwatcher
    The Euro had the secondary low pressure yesterday. This is at 84 hours, so take it for what that is worth. The 12km NAM just ran and has the main low heading into the Great Lakes, as a secondary forms in MS/AL late Thursday and rides northeastward to around Knoxville TN as a 991mb low at 8pm Friday night. Could be quite stormy with the pressure falls, backed winds and night time low level jet increase as we go through Friday evening through Saturday morning.
  11. southmdwatcher
    TDS for the last 3 scans started near Bethel heading for Georgetown.
  12. southmdwatcher
    Saluda and Urbanna could have been hit really hard just now.
  13. southmdwatcher
    Wow, the storms off to the southeast are really significant. One crossing the Bay as Andy pointed out and the one that just passed over Saluda VA
  14. southmdwatcher
    Loud wind gusts continue and heavy rain. Close but not severe here, but it certainly had the feel.
  15. southmdwatcher
    I can hear it coming, booming thunder lights flickering already.
  16. southmdwatcher
    small inflow notch just crossed the river south of Nanjemoy
  17. southmdwatcher
    Not good, and it gets to cross the River and get the added kick for rotation. Lovely next 45 minutes coming up.
  18. southmdwatcher
    I agree, but that is the nighttime Dixie Alley taste I was speaking of. Hopefully, uneventful.
  19. southmdwatcher
    Temps have gone up...
  20. southmdwatcher
    Ugh, the bands coming out of NC are looking to set up a train. Along with the significant parameters for severe. We get a taste of Dixie Alley tonight, hopefully without any pain.
  21. southmdwatcher
    Not at all, that is certainly underway across central and western VA and NC.
  22. southmdwatcher
    New tornado watch incoming for central and eastern VA downstream from the eastern side of our area. Mesoscale Discussion 0359 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019 Areas affected...Southeast Virginia and northern North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 150407Z - 150600Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A gradual increase in storm coverage and intensity is expected. A tornado watch is likely. DISCUSSION...Numerous showers have developed in central North Carolina within the last hour on the western edge of a higher theta-e airmass in eastern North Carolina and Virginia. These 70+ degree dewpoints are expected to continue to advect northwestward which will aid in destabilization across the area as temperatures cool aloft. The updrafts currently lack deep growth amid strong shear, but are expected to slowly deepen and eventually reach severe strength in the next 1 to 2 hours as the instability increases and the low-level jet strengthens (~70 knots per RAX VWP). Effective shear in excess of 60 knots will support supercell storm mode with a risk for damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. Directional shear is not all that strong, but 0 to 1 km speed shear in excess of 50 knots may support some low-level mesocyclone organization. ..Bentley.. 04/15/2019
  23. southmdwatcher
    Well, it is certainly a good thing that we did not have any further elevated levels of instability earlier to aid these storms. The line across the Appalachians is breaking up somewhat into segments and discrete storms and segments are dominant east of the Blue Ridge from here south to the Carolina's.
  24. southmdwatcher
    The SPC mesoscale page has a relatively new Beta parameter, the Violent Tornado parameter. It has been fairly accurate with the significant tornadoes so far this season. The large bullseye in central NC that ramped up over the past few hours to a level of 15, needs to pass south and east of us or diminish just as quickly as it ramped up. I believe it may pass through the eastern side of our forecast area in a few hours.
  25. southmdwatcher
    Don't know if they make it north of I64, but there are more than a few bands and discrete cells developing across SW VA in the new tornado watch area, heading NE.
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