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wncsnow

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Everything posted by wncsnow

  1. wncsnow
    I agree. The Euro and UK both showing it is concerning me. If 00Z euro and UK come in dryer again I'm going to lower expectations
  2. wncsnow
    From what I can still the SREF looks ok. I don't have the plumes but QPF looks ok. Nothing huge but solid
  3. wncsnow
    Never ignore the Euro
  4. wncsnow
    I just have that nagging feeling that something is going to screw us still. Don't like the 18Z euro going dry again. It looked like the UK with a dry area around the escarpment too. Hopefully the trends will be good at 00Z.
  5. wncsnow
    Less precip.. don't like that. First Euro run in a while that brought precip totals down instead of up..
  6. wncsnow
    Here are my reasons for optimism- 1. Snow pack to the north and cold in place 2. Cold (frozen) ground and sun angle are ideal for quick accumulation 3. Majority of the precipitation falls at night. Easier to stick. 4. Confluence should prevent it cutting too far north/west 5. The air is dry out ahead and will allow for evaporative cooling.
  7. wncsnow
    The 00Z run will be interesting.
  8. wncsnow
    Yep it's close but it's also the HR 84 NAM so it should be looked on a broader scale
  9. wncsnow
  10. wncsnow
    Heavy snow WNC
  11. wncsnow
  12. wncsnow
    Pretty cold on the NAM
  13. wncsnow
  14. wncsnow
    Looks good through 63. Let's see if it shears it out like the Euro is doing.
  15. wncsnow
    18Z NAM has some differences. More precip on the northern side of the system through 60.
  16. wncsnow
    Euro or Euro AI? I thought the regular Euro was a tad too far south originally
  17. wncsnow
    My early forecast- Smokies and Balsams- 4-8 inches all snow Asheville- 2-4" Northern Foothills- McDowell, Burke, Caldwell- 2-4" ending with some sleet Southern Foothills- Rutherford, Cleveland- 1-3" some sleet and ZR
  18. wncsnow
    The Euro did shift the low track west near the coast.
  19. wncsnow
    The rates are pretty low across most of NC. We need heavier banding to setup
  20. wncsnow
    Well the good mojo may have stopped. The UK is weaker and warmer.
  21. wncsnow
    The Canadian is slightly north but fine for I 40. A lot of the sleet would be snow IMO.
  22. wncsnow
    A lot of places start as snow then mix further east.
  23. wncsnow
    Mountain and foothills special this run.
  24. wncsnow
    Much further south
  25. wncsnow
    Looks like a good run of the GFS coming. Think it will be a little further south with the confluence stronger
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