ncskywarn

GFS is a tad West of 18Z at hour 18. Ridge looks a like stronger lets see wherer it goes.

New NHC track forecast take it from extream Western Wake County on the 5 pm update to Extream Eastern Wake County and over Wake Forest on the 11 pm track update.

New NHC track forecast take it from extream Western Wake County on the 5 pm update to Extream Eastern Wake County and over Wake Forest on the 11 pm track update.

Start of a new trend? stay tuned. NAM is coming in SW of 18Z at hour 51

1 minute ago, yotaman said:

 

That is ridiculous. That's 2 whole days of sales they will lose not to mention those who still want to go out and supplement what they have. 

Governor ordered mandatory evac effective noon tomorrow.

Just now, wake4est said:

They just posted it, seemingly implying it was the recent run.

Could be

4 minutes ago, wake4est said:

 I know that's what they showed but it looks more like it with based off of the 11:00 am NHC forecast track.

Not saying it's impossible. But honestly as someone pointed out on the other thread. The way the GFS has been looping Florence around it almost leads me to believe it may ultimately trend the direction of the Euro. Just in a different way because I don't think the ridge would allow it to get that far North just sit there then push it back Southwest in the long run. Instead of pushing it more West to begin with like the Euro shows.

Another interesting fact pointed out by the NHC. Also has to do with the destructive potential of this storm. The fact that it has doubled in size in the last 12 hours.  Edit: That was actually the extent of the hurricane force winds.

The new track forecast is a touch to the East and brings a center right over extream Western Wake County.

120 kts 939 pressure at 5pm

26 minutes ago, yotaman said:

Found this on another forum. Super closeup of the eye. http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=loop_of_the_day/goes-16/20180910000000&number_of_images_to_display=400&loop_speed_ms=25

Another good imaging website.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso-meso1-14-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

CAT 4!!!!!

 368 WTNT61 KNHC 101556 TCUAT1 Hurricane Florence Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1200 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018 ...FLORENCE BECOMES A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE... Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Florence has continued to rapidly stregthen and has maximum sustained winds near 130 mph (195 km/h). The latest minimum central pressure based on data from the aircraft is 946 mb (27.93 inches). SUMMARY OF 1200 PM AST...1600 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.0N 60.2W ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM SSE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1230 MI...1985 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.93 INCHES $$ Forecaster Blake

ICON at hour 63 is just a tad SW of 06Z ridge appears to be a little stronger.

27 minutes ago, BFF said:

It seems like the GFS is printing out that bonkers loop/stall solution because it might be having trouble resolving the strength of the WAR? Perhaps it ends up correcting south a bit at 00Z once it ingests the dropsonde data? Either way, tough to rule out any solution between perhaps GA and OTS at this point.

Will the data collected this afternoon be incorporated into tonight's 00Z model run?

WOW JUST WOW!!!!!

Doesn't look like it's East of the 06Z run. Looks like it's not going to make landfall.

Still a touch Southwest at 72

At 48 looks a touch South 06Z

Out 24 hours maybe just a little bit further West.

GFS just initialized.

Just saw couple of FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency) trucks in Raleigh.

This would be a monster.

WOW HWRF 195 Kt=225 MPH at the 850 level at hour 120.  Looks definitely plausible when you look at the bottom 2 images.

6 minutes ago, jburns said:

Good Lord.  Governor Cooper has just issued a state of emergency. It is getting to the point where no one even pays attention because they issue a state of emergency every time a mosquito farts. A full week early is a bit much.

Maybe a little bit early but probably prudent. At least it's giving him 5 or 6 days to get resources set up and in place. As opposed to waiting and having to rush and only having 2 or 3 days to get the same resources set up.  Especially if this ends up being worse case scenario and ends up effecting the entire state.