MD Snow

Looking at 6z GFS and FV3P0 - The evolution isn't that bad. Have the HP pressing a little more and we probably go bigger front end thump/mix/drizzle. Or have the primary hand off to a coastal right off Hatteras and we could even get in on CCB on the back end. Would probably also stay snow longer that way. Will be interesting to see if 12z runs start come around to this new GFS look. Remember, CMC had nothing at 0z and 0z EURO was a strung out mess.

Icon- gives a couple inches maybe and slides off coast and strengthens OTS but misses NE. CMC - has no storm. Gfs - Miller B type set up. Potential but we’re living on the edge with that set up. FV3 - runs primary into KY. Good HP placement. In that set up there is a tendency to maybe hold off on the flip a little longer than modeled because of HP and CAD.

Link?

Isn't the 0z GFS similar to 12z EURO here? Missing us and hitting NE harder?

12/26/10 right there.

ICON is weaker than 12z. Pretty lame at H5 too. Light snow but not much. Storm slides off Hatteras and is too far east to effect areas in the NE. Don't remember seeing that NS Vort dropping into maine at 12z either.

GEFS comes in weaker and less precip for next weekends storm.

Remember Thursday at 4pm when everyone had pretty much written off winter with a few people holding out hope for a switch after the 20th? That seems like an eternity ago...

7 days.

Anybody else worried about suppression? The FV3 has been hinting at it for its last couple of runs. 2 southern sliders.

And at 12z...

FVC3P0 has a parade of southern sliders next weekend and early next week.

Good signal for next Sunday still. Generally follows the op as usual.

Sweet. Ji comment incoming. Great addition to his yearly CMC snow tally that never actually occurs.

Agreed. It's still interesting to better understand the different options on the table with this opportunity.

Any thoughts why the GFS just spit out the solution that it did at 12z for next weekend? Am i wrong to think northern stream shot out a little in front of southern stream wave and didn't dig it up the coast? Kind of squashed it before it had time to take the full turn? Sorry for my amateur wording.

Which is fine at this range...

Looks like northern stream pieces phase in before it makes the turn up the coast. The GFS holds the phase until past our latitude.

It's the ICON but looks to be headed in the right direction at the end of its run for Sat-Sun...it's got the general idea at least.

Remember when it showed the cities in like the 4-5 inch range for a week straight back at the beginning of December? How'd that work out for us? Model's are just starting to get a handle on the pattern flip. Give it a couple days. I'd be shocked if we are sitting in the same place in terms of snowfall on the eps come Mon-Tues of next week.

This board though...5pm yesterday was the lowest I’ve seen it around here. For the threat next week, remember, the beginning of a pattern flip like what we’ve got coming up, will almost always favors areas to our north. Our time will come. Remember as of yesterday if I would have seriously talked about any threat next week I probably would have been banned.

https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/1081193019876036608?s=21

Not really a threat for us to track but interesting. Models aren't backing down on this being a nice little event for the NE. Some are improving on the threat. Only 4 days away. At this point it's the little things.

Maybe but remember last year we had an advisory event on december 8-9 and the end of december through beginning of january we had like 13 days straight of below freezing temps.

Agreed. What I'm hearing this morning from everybody is how mets try to predict the winter and they all fail. If they were unable to predict this crap pattern then they're probably unable to predict us going into a great pattern. That can go both ways. They point to this thing and that thing in the future and try to predict how it will impact a specific city on the globe. It's honestly ridiculous what they do year in and year out. It's all way too complicated. That's why you just have to let the weather come to you and not look ahead more than 10 days imo. I know this isn't a technical/scientific post but it's pretty much the truth. So, this is what I'm thinking. It's still WAY too early to throw the towel in. If the EPS went from showing a good look to a crap look in a couple days there is no reason to think that in the next couple of days it will go from showing a crap look to an amazing look. Especially with the some support from the GEFS, GEPS, MJO moving along, and SOI going negative. If it's still showing a crap pattern on Jan 20 then we punt all of January but to punt it all on January 3 is still ridiculous. Also, I wish everyone didn't worship at the alter of the weeklies as much as they do. They are the biggest fail machine I have ever seen past week 2. It is amazing how with all the forecasting tools we have we're still kind of clueless how it all fits together in the LR.