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MD Snow

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Everything posted by MD Snow

  1. MD Snow
    Swing and miss with the coastal. You could tell early on at H5.
  2. MD Snow
    ICON has improved ever so slightly it's last 3 runs. Even gets us with the ULL pass Monday morning.
  3. MD Snow
    That's mostly virga though....you're on the composite shot.
  4. MD Snow
    If that’s the case we should know soon imo. If the big ticket item is off the table, expect the gefs to start dropping those ensembles members at 12z today. The big thing I’m looking for today is whether the models go for a strung out blob of SLP that just slides off the coast (EURO and ICON). This would result in a low end advisory for areas north and east of DC. Or if we can get a more consolidated SLP that can dig a bit (gfs twins and ggem). This would result in a higher end advisory or even warning level event for areas north and east of dc. I don’t trust the NAM outside of 48hrs so I wouldn’t put much weight on its handling of the coastal towards the end of its run until tomorrow’s 12z runs.
  5. MD Snow
    Anybody got a precip map on the 6z euro?
  6. MD Snow
    Hahaha at 84hrs...Let's see if the coastal can climb. Has anyone noticed that the more seasoned posters rarely post during the beginning of a model suite?
  7. MD Snow
    ICON looks good through 60hrs. Better look at h5 and precip shield has responded by being further north. Snow breaking out over us at 69hrs.
  8. MD Snow
    JMA is solid. .5” line Baltimore south.
  9. MD Snow
    But each of the last 3 runs since 0z last night have had less solid hits and more misses. Like less than one inch or 2. I count roughly 8 of those for the cities. That's the most misses it's shown for a while.
  10. MD Snow
    UKIE?
  11. MD Snow
    I'll take my chances, IF the coastal can make it slightly north of Hattaras before taking it's right turn
  12. MD Snow
    Will be interesting to see if guidance heads that direction.
  13. MD Snow
    Yeah, the ultimate deathblow is the NAM at 84 hrs.
  14. MD Snow
    I agree. I never mentioned a trend. Simply pointing out the idea of some snow showers Saturday night followed by a dry period and then maybe getting the Coastal to gain enough latitude to hit us. This would be different than what is currently modeled as more of a drawn out long duration light event.
  15. MD Snow
    Anybody else seeing that both the GFS and ICON seem to holding things back a bit. Their 6z runs now bring the SLP up to Hatteras between hrs 114 and 120. ICON has been hinting at this. Will be interesting to watch. This would support the idea of maybe a front end WAA Saturday night, a dry period and then getting hit by the coastal Sunday afternoon. Something to watch for today. For instance, here's the GFS at 0z and then 6z.
  16. MD Snow
    Who's got the 6z EPS?
  17. MD Snow
    Holy Nam at 78 hrs.
  18. MD Snow
    And a definite improvement over 12z.
  19. MD Snow
    18z Nam looking good at 84hrs.
  20. MD Snow
    CWG is probably kicking themselves over that post yesterday. Lol
  21. MD Snow
    Some of the bigger gfs runs have had SLP that are similar.
  22. MD Snow
    Has the ukie been posted?
  23. MD Snow
    Ok. I see where you're coming from. But the point that some people are making here is that the ICON, GGEM, and both GFS's had a more amped coastal idea up until this morning. They all backed off from their previous runs today. Maybe some people don't think that's a trend but I kind of do. It's a trend away from a more amped solution... Still a ton of time. Wouldn't be suprised if this thing still has one more major change up it's sleeve before game time....for the better or worse.
  24. MD Snow
    Agree. Terrible wording. Sorry about that. A better wording would have been, "The models seem to be coming around to a less amped solution that would favor more of an advisory level event."
  25. MD Snow
    I have no clue what the final outcome. Just saying what the consensus is coming around to right now. We still have a chance for major changes. Now we just have a new consensus to work out from. Remember when 12/9 went to the NC/VA border? How'd that end up for areas north of Richmond? Still a ton of time. At this point though, the models are leaning away from a more amped solution.
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