MD Snow
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Everything posted by MD Snow
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Cool bro. I honestly don’t think we have much of a chance of either. NAM is already showing more phasing of streams at 12z. However, the strong arctic front would at least give some credence to a back end changeover. By thump I mean changeover because like you say we rarely ever do back end thumps.
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It was.
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At this point, I think we have an equal chance of a front end thump to a back end changover.
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It did slow down more though on it’s 6z run. I believe the snow maps that are being posted for our area still include tomorrow nights event on them. No? Shave an inch or so off...
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Totally. He wrote off January and a week later we’re tracking a snowstorm. He pretty much wrote off the weekend deal yesterday and it immediately started trending more favorably.
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We still have a solid 24hrs for some semi major changes with this thing.
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Hard to tell exactly from the noaa site but the fv3 appears to be improved as well.
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Also bullseyed just south of DC for the third straight run.
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...i just remember what certain people were saying just 12 days ago about our prospects for the rest of January....
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You bet I am!
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Yeah, if we can get this thing to juice up a bit over the next 48hrs it could be a decent little advisory level event for the whole sub-forum.
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NAM again bullseyes south of DC with the highest amount...
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Yeah, and remember rule #963 from the weenie handbook...the 12z Euro always follows the 12z ukie...
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So would you say the NAM’s and CMC are wrong with areas south of DC getting 2”?
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Agreed as it stands now. However, a slightly stronger system and areas north and west could pile up and get that 3-4” easy with central Maryland in a solid 1-3”.
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12z cmc gets snow almost down to the nc/va border. Positive trends at 12z for keeping most of the forum snow. If we can just get a solid precip shield to move through I think you could get a 2-4” surprise snowfall region wide with this one.
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6z was congrats ezf...
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That’s good. Could be a decent little event. HP is not in an ideal position but it’s also not terrible. Majority of precip comes at night. Amazing how if this event was coming last week at this point, this thread would be like 30 pages...
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What does the GEFS/EPS look like for this event? Any higher end solutions?
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That is a big run right there. First global to go big on the coastal enhancement idea.
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At hr 14 you can already see improvements at h5.
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Both the ICON and CMC op have snow in the area Monday morning from the ULL pass.
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Sunday evening....
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So what would be your response if the 12z ensembles were split between a larger coastal solution for our area and a miss to the south like they have been showing?
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Agreed. When we get close to game time we take a 25-50 mile switch in precip shield as a trend when in the grand scheme of things it's just noise. This was not a good run but let's wait to see 12z GEFS, GEPS and EPS before talking trends.
