MD Snow

been super slow coming out recently on TT.

It snows on us from hrs 153-174. Like it.

We should keep an eye on the clipper for Sunday. 0z icon improved at h5 and gets flurries into the area. Still time for it to trend into something for us.

There is blocking consistently across all guidance for all of next week.

Weenie post incoming - how many times has the nao been forecasted to go negative in the long range and didn’t verify? Maybe now that we have it in the short/med range it will hold in the long range? Also, isn’t the soi gonna go negative soon? MJO moving into later phases? All points to the blocking not breaking down?

Yeah, not a lot of consensus on track/timing. But definite consensus on a storm threat. That’s all you can ask for at a 7 day lead.

All 12z ops...gfs, euro, jma, gem, fv3, and icon have a coastal storm next Tuesday night and/or Wednesday. Still a long way off but it’s a signal.

Yup. I think everyone realizes that. Just pointing out that the Nam's aren't the only model that have something frozen showing up tomorrow in the area. Nothing of consequence.

Things are moving around a ton right now. We won't know anything about a specific threat for next week until the current storm on Thursday gets out of the way. Friday we should start getting some clarity on the Monday-Friday timeframe next week. At this point though, it looks like we have a window of opportunity. That's all you can as for at a 7-10 day lead.

If we're honest, we can't really be sure that the look will verify next week. However, does anyone else think it's hilarious how whenever chill or psu start being deb's we get some serious glimmers of hope? Remember, the first week of January? Snowstorm the next week. Remember this morning? Model's start immediately start showing a better look. This is the year of "weather's just gonna do what weather's gonna do..."

Yup...but there are a lot of moving parts. I just have hunch that someone along the east coast scores something next week. We've seen hits here and there by various models over the last couple of days. Both GFS/GGEM/EURO jumped on board with a good look up top today. We're at 7 days from that good look. Starting to get that look like of the weeklies. Who knows if it will last but if that look does indeed verify next week someone on the east coast will score something.

Yeah. Next week is our chance to score something. At this point looks like the North East has the best chance but like chill always says, give me that look up top and i'll let the chips fall...

Appears the GGEM jumped on board to the idea at 12z...

I’ll take the look up top at h5 on the op 12z gfs next week and let the chips fall.

It’s an op but at hr 210 on the 12z gfs doesn’t look to shabby. Workable. -nao it appears. Yeah mid to end of next week def looks like a time to score.

So are we rooting for the NSW to slow down a touch here to allow the SSW to amplify?

I think all you can say Is that there’s a threat window for next Monday-Wednesday. Lots of moving parts. Won’t know anything concrete until at the earliest Thursday.

Thank goodness. Was watching the regular 18z gfs and envisioning the melts from no legit threats...

Am I wrong to think we've got spacing issues between storms after Thursday's rainer? Seems like there just isn't enough room for things to amplify. Sure there's a chance for a piece to phase in but it seems just as likely for a piece to be a kicker....

Anybody got the Ukie at 144?

Cool bro...lol

Cracks me up that people are whining about the pattern in 10 days. I guess that they don’t realize that we are actually in a pattern right now that has opportunities in the short range to see winter weather. Areas of the forum got over a foot of snow last week. Areas north and west picked up a sloppy inch or two last night. We’ve got 1-2 chances at wintry weather over the next week. Hopefully, everyone doesn’t get to the first or second week in February and miss the “good pattern” that is actually happening now...

I'm cherry picking this morning but here's the three chances we have this week of seeing wintery weather.... 12z NAM has a wintery mix for parts of the area Wednesday. FV3 has rain changing to snow on Thursday. And GEFS has a pretty good signal for the coastal on Sun/Mon.