MD Snow

most recent 850 mb temp chart. This will be fun to track throughout the day. If we can somehow hold on to 850's throughout the day, and if we do indeed get decent precipitation rates tonight, I think we could see a mix into the cities. This is the type of storm where PSU has the potential to cash in big time given his elevation.

On the Euro...remember on Tuesday 72 hrs out from today’s event it had clear skies? Remember 72 hrs out from feb 16 it had like 2-4”? We ended up with partly sunny skies. 72 hrs out from last Wednesday’s storm it only had accumulating snow north and west of Baltimore. I ended up with 5” just south of b-more. The Euro hasn’t really been the most dependable at 2.5- 3 day leads recently. I’m not saying it’s not right but just that it definitely is not what it used to be.

They are probably all in on the euro solution. We’ve seen the icon and now the gfs show snow into the cities. Latest 12k Nam was weaker and colder, 0z cmc was weaker and colder, navgem has trended less amped and colder, fv3 has trended colder. The trend across guidance since 12z yesterday has been weaker and colder. Given the current catchup the globals are having to play with tonight’s coastal, I wouldn’t be surprised if they continue to play catch-up with a weaker solution until game time on Sunday. Heck I could see it becoming a quick hitting 2-4/3-6 type event for many. But until the euro caves, they’ll probably remain bearish.

Gfs with the hit! What the heck. Model mayham!

RGEM was 989 at the end of its 18z run.

0z gem is basically the same as 12z. Maybe slightly better in terms of snowfall along the northern tier.

Holy gfs. Coming around to the RGEM/Nam look.

The coastal on Friday night should be monitored for possible snowfall along the northern tier. 0z icon and nams support so far.

And the follow up coastal on Tuesday night.

Gfs colder through 84hrs.

Icon is stronger with the coastal Saturday and it lowers heights behind it. Colder to start Sunday afternoon.

Icon is a hit dc north.

18z 12k with some coastal enhancement Friday evening. More snow 95 north and west.

Wait, I thought when the euro takes our snow away it never gives it back? Lol

Don’t think it was mentioned yet but 12z hrdps has a general 1-3” dc north. Some 4” lolies as you get toward the pa/md line. Early on it seems the mesos are favoring dc north for accumulating snow while the globals are favoring Baltimore south.

The coastal that is beginning to be advertised starting Friday night into Saturday should be monitored for a number of reasons. First, It could surprise some people along the northern tier into southern pa with some unexpected snow. See the 12k nam and cmc for reference. Second, it’s strength moving up the coast will impact our Sunday/Monday threat. The stronger it gets, the lower the heights and temps behind it and the colder our Monday storm becomes. I believe showme had a post this morning harping on the potential this had. Will be interesting to monitor. One way or the other we have a solid 10 day window with accumulating snow potential.

12z CMC is a driving rainstorm as well.

But it throws us some coastal love Tuesday night/Wednesday.

Very encouraging trends over the last 2 model cycles for a moderate advisory level event for the area.

Euro is in the process of giving back our snow Thursday night that it took away. It’s caving to the nam. Lol

12k develops another area of light snow for the area (northern tier) Friday night as well.

There will be 3-4 storms chances next week with cold lurking close by. I’ll take my chances we get accumulating snow from at least one.

CMC has pretty much the same idea.

0z Icon and cmc are big rain storms Sunday night/Monday.

I think we should keep this in mind over the next couple days.