katabatic

23.0/15.3 at my weather station but the GC airport is 34/1. Inversion is already fairly strong obviously. Interesting to see how this plays out. A similar setup last year gave me a sleet bomb after a bit of snow.

1 minute ago, mdhokie said:

Drove home from Deep Creek today and the temp didnt change much along the way, which is odd. 38 when i left, hit a max of 40 around Hagerstown and was 39 when i got home to Ellicott City. 

You went the wrong way lol

Surprised by the high of 43.5 today. Currently 39.6 but a dry DP of only 7.6. That'll help big time come show time.

14 minutes ago, Heisy said:

The question I’m wondering is how many cutters will it take to finally get legit lower heights under the block in 50/50 land. End of euro, prob have to run that another 3-5 days+ for us to have a good setup


.

Your question is the same one that I (and I am sure most) are asking after that Euro run. Last year, I get it - raging SER a la Nina. But what do we need now to break this OHV track?

36 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Were almost down to 5 days nows. 

Would be nice to get s region wide event. It's been a while lol.

And the ski resorts need it so badly. Just looked around and no local resorts are open. You'd have to drive 2 - 3 hours west to find one.

Looks like whitetail and Round top opened briefly before shutting down operations. 

How's wisp? I know there open but is it pretty limited at this point?

My husband is a lift operator at Wisp (there now) and I must say that they have done a magnificent job of keeping as much open for as long as they can. Even last year with the endless warm days, they were able to take advantage of the rare cold night to make enough snow to stay open until late March. It is just a perfect day there today - mid 20s with snow falling but not enough to create travel headaches. As @nj2va mentioned, if these solid forecasts pan out, they will be in their best shape - by far - in 2 years. My husband texted earlier saying today is a fun day because everyone (guests and employees) are in a great mood and just enjoying the hell out of a truly winter day.

Light snow with round 2 has begun. Picked up 1.4" yesterday/last night. Currently 32.3.

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Great post. I visited Deep Creek last year for my snow fix and it was really fun and nice. We loved it. So we looked at real estate prices, and I'm sorry, but those houses are waaaaaay overpriced. Even more stupidly priced than closer into the DMV area (which is high priced for valid reasons).

Exactly - they are midcity/downtown prices in McHenry/DCL without any business or industry to support it. It is exclusively DC and Pittsburgh money that comes in during the weekend and holidays.  Mountain Lake Park and Oakland might as well be on the other side of the moon as it relates to DCL. But, you can say that about most resort locales across the country.  I love it here overall, but since this post was about buying a home for a snow town, I was playing the pity party part. As a point of reference, in Alpine Lake, for $300,000, you can still get quite a bit of house. A small condo in McHenry starts at a half-million and since this is/will be my permanent home, I do not want to live beside an Airbnb. You can still Airbnb in Alpine Lake, but at least they are all single family homes and you won't hear the other person's toilet flush. 

I chose Garrett County area to move to permanently because (at least for now) I can work remotely and am obsessed with winter weather. Deep Creek has absolutely zero long term rentals so I ended up south, in Mountain Lake Park. I know you are looking to buy, but that's the real estate world here as prices literally doubled over Covid. A word of caution though - this is my second winter and TBH it has failed literally every expectation I had in terms of winter weather. My expectations, apparently, were wayyyyy too lofty. Almost without exception, the upslope events are 1-2, maybe 3 inches tops and then within a day or two, melts into a giant muddy mess and everything - everything - is just filthy from the road crap to the muddy yard. I know I haven't been here for very long but for you to invest that kind of money in a snow town, this pales in comparison to Davis/Canaan. I'm sure you follow the Davis 3SE weather report and he already has 37 or so inches. IMBY I have had a little over 15...and Wisp reports 19. The county could be drawn in half - the northern half are the million dollar vacation homes, the south (where I am) is small town America with much more reasonable housing prices. If you are in it for the snow, Davis/Canaan without a doubt. As others have said, if you yearn for activities, Deep Creek is it. 

The other area you might consider is Alpine Lake. I call it a poor man's Deep Creek just over the border in WV. Houses are half (or less) of Deep Creek/Davis areas and if I am going to end up staying here long term, that is most likely where I will buy to put down roots. Alpine Lake is mega quiet, however...more quiet than Davis/Canaan but as @Bob Chill wrote, I, too, am looking for quiet and solitude and that fits the bill for me personally. My guess is Alpine Lake gets 30% more snow on an annual basis than MBY as it is a bit higher and gets the first dose of the GL moisture.

Today's high of 46 felt colder w/the thick midlevel overcast most of the day. Before the clouds rolled in, another chilly morning where we bottomed out at 13.8.

14 minutes ago, RIC_WX said:

Impressive.  We bottomed out at 16.9*

I do well when there is an inversion/decoupling because MLP is in a bit of a bowl relative to the surrounding topography. 

Drove through Davis to Canaan yesterday afternoon. Beautiful. Hope this scene replays for all of us soon. 

10.8 here. Second coldest thus far. Kinda sad I’m already looking past Christmas (my fave holiday) because of the possibility (probability?) of a really good stretch coming up, but hey, it’s who we are. 

Kinda cool what the wind did with the snow overnight on my porch. Ended up with 5.1”. Still chilly (24.8) with a few lonely flurries dancing about. 

Hmm. Just a dusting so far. Stars are out (had a beautiful sunset too). Wonder if we will end up busting low on this one. 

30.4 with a few off and on flakes in Southern GC. Some convective returns west of here so hopefully the show is about to begin.

0.44" in the bucket. 34.2 (falling from 39.0 at midnight) and as @nj2va mentions above, it is the post-intermission part of this storm out here that'll count. 

2 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

The hike was amazing weather for this time of year. This was one of the harder hikes for me, but slow and steady won the race. I have lost 30 lbs since July, so I’ve been trying to get into better shape. 
 

A 6.5 mile hike with 725ft of gain along with several climbs and descents along the way…this was a tester. Making it through made me feel really good and it’ll be something I try to work on through time. I felt accomplished getting it done. 

Keep it going! Success begets success. I am down 293 pounds since 2014 and have kept it off. No surgery or anything - just a true lifestyle change. I love hiking… it’s obviously excellent exercise but it’s so refreshing that it often doesn’t feel like real work. 

1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

That map looks like something you’d have seen on an Atari game system 

It could be colored by Lindsay Lohan after a week long bender as long as it verifies.

Looks to get interesting here in the Boonies once this puppy lifts north of our latitude. 

11 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

This latest run was a doozy.  Gas up your mower.  Take that gas from the blower. 

CPCs 3-4 week outlook was equally sobering. Takes us through 50% of met winter with no sustained cold in sight. 

13 hours ago, ers-wxman1 said:

A good day to all. Making my first post in quite some time. The media, backyard meteorologists, and even some private sector Mets got sucked into the mentality of “ It’s El Niño” we will get clobbered. Yes, there have been records of strong El Niño years producing a record snow/storm, but our climate whether you believe it or not is changing. It’s been 8 years since we’ve seen an 18”+ event. Everyone sees El Niño and out flies the coop on 30-40” snowfall for the area, big snows. Only problem is…where is the cold air? There is none, it’s locked way up and not coming down anytime soon. Don’t believe me? It’s mid December. How many wind chill warnings or sub zero airmasses have come down into the northern Plains this season? About none so far. El Niño is only one factor in a giant puzzle. The inexperienced look at one or two factors then run with it. This will be a warm and wet winter for most on this sub forum, even the I-81 corridor. We will see one shot at a big storm but with typical I-95 temp issues and accumulations N and W of 95. Couple smaller events here and there and that will be it for the 23/24 season. Very disappointing. Local ski resorts minus Snowshoe will be hurting this year. There is simply nothing in place to lock in cold air, and what is available isn’t even cold. I expect the drought to be over by March. There will be so much rain over the next three months that the word drought won’t be around for a while. 

This is well written. Meteorology - at its core - is about the study of heat transfer. I am in banking for my 'real job' and at our core all we do is buy and sell money. That's it. Now with both professions, there are spider legs that extend far beyond our core study to make them both endlessly complex. An important part of that complexity is when you inject as much heat as we have into the world over the last 30 years and especially the last 5-10, the physics of how heat is transferred throughout the oceans and atmosphere must change in response. Oceans have absorbed what, 90% of the heat added in that time? And they are acting funny. I do not think anyone can decipher what and how this will exactly impact our local climate this winter and the years following, but what was said above hits the nail on the head. It is simply too warm and when you are in/on the margins as we are here in the MA, it doesn't take a whole lot to knock us off our rocker. Nobody knows with any level of certainty what will happen more than 2 weeks out and we may still get lucky with aligning stars as the winter progresses - hell, I moved to Oakland primarily for the snow - so, I hope we do. But when you add so much heat to an already delicately balanced world, the atmospheric response we've seen in the past decade will likely be an ever-intensifying mirror of what is reflecting back on us now.

19.4 this morning allowing the Wisp snow guns to fire all night long. My husband is a ski lift operator there (yep, same guy who is from the equator...gah, the irony). It opens for the season tomorrow. The short-mid range forecast seems to be marginally serviceable(!?) for them to not turn into an ankle deep mud puddle over the next few weeks before we (god, I hope) get some opportunities for real help from Mother Nature. 

2.4" with a surprising (and not inconsequential) amount of -ZR this morning. There was enough so that even on paved surfaces that weren't treated, you were slipping and sliding. A pretty side effect was it encased the snow on the trees so even with a bit of a breeze, the scenery was still quite beautiful.

The drive to/from Davis was just awesome. Roads there were totally snow covered and it was easily moderate, if not heavy, snowfall. Back here in the Boonies, roads are just starting to cave with maybe 1/2 inch so far and snowing moderately. 31.5 currently. My husband is from Ecuador (Quito) and had never seen snow until coming here in 2018 (his condo is in the Southern Hemisphere while his job was in the Northern Hemisphere).  It is 72/48 there every single day. To say he doesn't get my snow obsession is an understatement but he was a trooper...came with me in the truck. Tootling around in the snow listening to Christmas music was a good time. 

All snow, 32.7. Since it's only about 25 minutes away and I am obsessed with this sh*t, going to take a little drive to Davis and Canaan and see how they are faring. Just bought a new 4x4 (and my deductible is reasonable) so let's test it out.