OSUmetstud

10 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

This is what it has, I always thought it was a sounding. But I guess not. 

Maybe someone else can chime on what levels are in there. It does look like more than just a few and then interpolation. 

Just now, tombo82685 said:

weatherbell I believe has a skew-t kind of sounding

It has profiles (like bufkit) of temp and rh. But i dont think its actually at full model vertical resolution. So warm layers can get missed. 

Nice exotic solution for hazey too. 

Just now, dendrite said:

Sure. Never said it wasn't. You really want a prolonged -ZR or ZL event to go epic with the accretion...a la 98.

Yea. I built the FRAM into a spreadsheet at work. Id be interested to see what it would come up with (some of that qpf is ip obviously). 

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

This could be pretty efficient though with the arctic dry air source advecting in and temps so low to begin with.

Yea but the majority of zr icing efficiency is explained via rates. Wet bulb temp and wind are also important but not as important as rate. 

3 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Are Euro soundings available anywhere? Free or paid? I really want to see what it looks like. Taking verbatim at hour 148 for KASH:

SFC -6 C

925 -5 C

850 5 C

750 -2 C

Windy.com has soundings but its just a plot of the course resolution upper level temps that exist elsewhere on the internet (925, 850, 700, 500) i think real soundings would be super pricey. 

Those wxbell algorithms hate ip. Its either snow or zr which is bs. 

Just now, weathafella said:

We spend every winter day dissecting minor league modes for 4 hours and then the big MLB game comes on after lunch.

BUF vs CLE then KC vs. NE

Speaking of bad models...the navgem turns into a coastal but mainly nails interior and nne. 

Just now, Hazey said:

YQX?.

Pretty bad when I get completely whiffed while st. John's gets sn to ra. That doesn't typically happen.

Yeah. Gander should do well. Lots of warm air thrown nw of track. Annoying.  

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Just seeing the GGEM, .  I mean that's straight through Rochester.

No chance at all.

Yeah that was a bit exotic. 

4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Lol....cmon Nick...you may not be able to admit it publicly but I bet you’d fold with a few drinks in you off the record...

Im not a canadian govt met. Rgem is a better model than gfs inside 48. Gfs is only slightly better than gem outside of that. And If im having drinks everyone is in trouble lol. 

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS is def great at choke jobs near big events. In fact, it has some legendary choke jobs that only the GGEM could dream of. But it at least has scored a few coups too. 

Yes that is an annoying aspect of the gfs. Se bias is real and prevalant. 

Just now, weathafella said:

It blows and you know it.  I don’t care about the scores...it’s borderline worthless.

So does the gfs dude. I cant even use it for my forecast tomorrow. 

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It'll be the first coup the GGEM scores in a decade. Canadians could use the confidence booster. Hopefully it works out. 

I dont know why u guys need to create such a narrative. The gem is just as bad as the gfs. Its outperfoming the gfs for tomorrow on the ma low for nl...and it outperformed the gfs for my blizzard at the beginning of the month. 

17 hours ago, Hazey said:

I might see some flakes...lol. YYT gets the goods with this one.

Yeah notsomuch. 

21 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I’m hoping I can get back into posting more soon...or at least reading more. 

Congrats dude. 

20 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

4 to 1 ratio would produce a foot of sleet. I had 6 to 8 Valentine’s Day it was like shoveling beach sand.

I got about 6" of sleet last year in an event. It was something special. Id rather have it fall as snow though if given the choice. 

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mm... perhaps, but what I said is physically demonstrative...  

That could easily be a matter of sample sizes and noise causing that - we know by physical processes that it "takes time" to move momentum from one point in space to another. So ...in so far as what worth the conjecture has, it seems exceedingly unlikely - to me - that merely having a wave in Phase 8 --> snow in Boston  

The research shows there a direct correlation between 7 and 8 and elevated sig snow risk. You would see it in 6 or 5 if it were a week or two lagged. Theres only an average of 4 to 8 days in each phase.  

Just now, Hazey said:

Thanks. Didn't know about that link. You should get another blizzard out of this with that track.

Looks okay. Still could go either way at 100 hours. I have to investigate further but i know will and others here have referenced it before. It does have different solutions after 48 hr than the gdps so its not just a splice. Ill reach out to a friend at eccc and see why its not available in grib and on the more public sites. 

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

As a general caveat emptor ...added to the notion that the MJO gets too much attention/focus ... 

There is a time-lag.   The effectiveness/incluence-ability of any given wave doesn't concurrently exist in the pattern... the momentum takes time to distribute down wind.  

So I'm not sure what your conversation re this subject matter is/was leading to your post above ... but, "having a cutter during Phase 8" would almost be acceptable given that wave behavior above as it graphically passed through 5 and 6 mere days prior to that arc on the left hand side

Theres no lag between 8 and snowstorms though. The lag is between 6 and snowstorms. 

10 minutes ago, Hazey said:

Long range? Only goes to 48hr.

http://labanimator.cmc.ec.gc.ca/wind/synoptic_e.html

Long range rdps gets james into the action. 

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

What's your snow totals in inches please 

Saw this from New Foundland

That looks maybe the west coast or northern peninsula?

59.6" at yyt. Probably in the range of 10 to 12" above normal. 

Mjo is definitely the weenie buzzword of the year though.