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OSUmetstud

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by OSUmetstud

  1. OSUmetstud
    Kinda damned if you do damned if you dont. Need fast but what good are shitty tests? I dont know if a anybody saw but this was the latest NYS antibody study results from today. The test is reported to have 93 to 100 percent specificity.
  2. OSUmetstud
    the testing way more limited in early to mid march on the ramp up compared to what is now. So you'd be more likely to miss something then than now. It also would explain the lack of symmetry in the fatality graphs in many places. Better counts on backside then on the front.
  3. OSUmetstud
    The excessive death stats widely reported are pretty hard to ignore imo. Theres also a few preprints out there discussing it. Estimates of 52k in Italy, for example.
  4. OSUmetstud
    This is probably true everywhere. Limited testing early on in the pandemic.
  5. OSUmetstud
    Meh. It just seems like someone doesn't like the way flu is counted. They explain their methods on the cdc website. They also call it a "flu burden" which is an idea that flu is contributing to the death not necessarily the only or primary cause.
  6. OSUmetstud
    Iran? Chuck it lol.
  7. OSUmetstud
    Public health experts and epidemiologists should be driving a response to a pandemic. It's pretty obvious. Who would you suggest?
  8. OSUmetstud
    Why is this perverse? Aren't those the type of people that should be driving the response?
  9. OSUmetstud
    No you're right. Theres issues with the pcr tests too. Sometimes the virus is deeper so the swab doesn't catch it
  10. OSUmetstud
    These antibody tests due seem like a bit of a fool's errand overall...lots of error and thers no confirmation of what level of antibodies confers immunity. I like numbers so they're fun to look at but hard to use them for any sort of policy.
  11. OSUmetstud
    Bergamo is the hardest hit city in the world. They lost 0.57 percent of their entire population. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.15.20067074v2
  12. OSUmetstud
    That study is positive for a potentially lower ifr.
  13. OSUmetstud
    You'd like to see more of a downtrend here.
  14. OSUmetstud
    I've heard ideal is a positive percentage of 3% or less. US is at 12% now , which is clearly better than before with about 200K tests a day, but still missing too much.
  15. OSUmetstud
    I do agree the contract tracing will be difficult. Maybe we can use some of the people unemployed for that? lol idk. I know they discussed the matter here. The provincial govt is suggesting digital contract tracing here (voluntary) through a cell phone app. They mentioned that it would really only be effective through 60 percent compliance. Contact tracing is way more feasible when the numbers are small. When they blow up its basically impossible, which is the case in NY obviously.
  16. OSUmetstud
    They used control measures in 1918. Do you not want to use the things we've learned throughout history to try to give us a fighting chance here?
  17. OSUmetstud
    Economically, fear is going to be tough, I think, regardless of govt regulation people will be less likely to do certain activities than before.
  18. OSUmetstud
    I don't think large crowds are viable for this year, though.
  19. OSUmetstud
    If you do it gradually and you have enough contact tracing infrastructure I don't believe you have to get to herd immunity before a vaccine. As long as you keep the Ro under 1 we should be okay. It will be hard, though. That's why New York State is monitoring the transmission rate.
  20. OSUmetstud
    This an extreme position. It's only advocated by the far right. The whole idea of herd immunity as a solution and exposing people to the virus is insane, and not inline with normal health policy whatsoever. I can't believe being supportive of CDC guidelines and the trends like NYS is doing is somehow an indefensible position. Im getting questioned more than you.
  21. OSUmetstud
    Ive already said what we need to do...the thing that's already being done in this country by state governments and the cdc guidelines. Gradually open, test, trace, isolate, monitor...
  22. OSUmetstud
    Can someone please show me a single ****ing person that has advocated for indefinite lockdowns?
  23. OSUmetstud
    *Smashes head on keyboard*
  24. OSUmetstud
    No, they aren't. There's demonstrable undercounting going on worldwide due to the lack of testing early on in the pandemic and we're at 60K confirmed already with plenty to go, and that's just the first wave with lots of restrictions in place to prevent the numbers I stated above.
  25. OSUmetstud
    It's not relevant to this virus at all. You know damn well how deadly it is. I know you're not stupid, man.
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