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Posts posted by OSUmetstud

  1. 18 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

    How was it up there -- as compared to say a strong mid-winter cyclone?

    The winds here were probably like a 1 in 10 to 20 year event. We gusted to 85 knots in a March 2017 low that was 952mb or so and came up the same bay as Larry and that was strongest wind gust here in 40 years. It's the second highest gust for a TC here on record behind Ione in 1955. Far more damage than the March 2017 windstorm though. Probably second behind our snowmaggeden super blizzard in Jan 2019 in terms of anomaly and overall impact. 

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  2. 15 minutes ago, Windspeed said:
    40 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:
    Seems typically with a large, tilted, fast moving system you tend to see more wind field expansion than an increase in max winds. But I suppose possible the eyewall could reorganize somewhat

    Agreed. My post is intended to give a ceiling for any potential reintensification. It would still be tough for Larry to regain major hurricane status given its broad windfield. Most likely it may just become more efficient at mixing down winds to remain a hurricane. Perhaps regain Category 2 intensity at best. Current maximum winds on the 11AM AST advisory is 90 mph sustained.

    Yeah I'm a little annoyed as this idea that it's weakening from the NHC. I think it was overestimated yesterday based on SFMR and lack of convection. So this morning's data is more indicative of its real intensity. It may have actually been weaker yesterday. The pressure fell 2mb in 95 minutes between passes and the microwave looked nice this morning.



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  3. Just now, Scorpion said:

    I’d love to experience a hurricane up there sometime. Beautiful northern forest and hurricane force winds. Would just set myself up on an exposed ridge on an observation tower. Probably be hard to stay warm though.

    Night time for potential landfall unfortunately. 

  4. I usually do most of my weather stuff on twitter nowadays but I'll provide some updates. 

    The bifurcation between the gfs emcwf and gdps and their ensembles compared to the hmon hwrf and coamps is interesting. Hurricane models are near or just east of the avalon whereas the globals track over placentia bay/western avalon Peninsula. Makes a huge difference re: wind damage. 

    This is not Igor. Igor was basically fully et/post tropical. It had been embedded with a 500mb trough in excess of 12 h...so much so that even though it made landfall in Cape Race it produce hurricane force winds all the way back northwest to Bonavista. Strong winds with Larry will be mostly found east and south of track. Also, rainfall doesn't appear to be a big deal with this one which was really Igor's most damaging element. The stationary front is well to to west over the Maritimes and not in east central Newfoundland like it was with Igor. 

    If Larry does take the western avalon/placentia Bay track than the wind damage could be worse for stj and the avalon than it was for Igor. 


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  5. 5 minutes ago, Tezeta said:


    You sweating yet? I know you’re reading all the posts about catastrophic power failures…

    I don't think those equivalent to Laura in insured losses calls are looking good right now either...

  6. Just now, Tezeta said:

    It’s a complex system. Yes it has been revamped but why anyone would 100% trust any piece of infrastructure in America of all places is just beyond me. 

    Also it’s not just about levees. What if a chemical plant blows 2 hours from now? There’s lots of catastrophes that can still happen. 

    Oh sure. I'm just saying that from what we've seen today, I think they'll be alright. Am I not allowed to give an opinion on it? 

  7. Katrina was a semi-man made disaster. This will actually be worse for a lot of areas in SE LA than Katrina was, meteorological speaking. The surge in NOLA will actually probably end up similar. The thing that's different is the levees. 

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  8. 1 minute ago, Wmsptwx said:

    Lol why am I getting weenied for sharing opinion/somewhat good news in the banter thread. I’m leaving actual thread for experts.

    Laura hit the least populated area in LA. This is no Katrina, but this is worse than Laura in terms of population affected. 

    • Like 1
  9. Apparently the surge in New Orleans with Betsy was 10 ft or so. I think this might out-do that in New Orleans. For SE Louisiana, I'm definitely expecting over 15 ft. It's a much larger hurricane than Michael was. 

  10. 6 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

    Acting like Dean and Mitch with these wind profiles. Max warm core strength closer to the surface.

    I think that's fairly normal in the strongest, right? The flight level winds and surface winds are close with the big max in between. 

  11. 1 minute ago, csnavywx said:

    Every storm in this rarified air is different. Katrina's surge will be hard to beat due to its gaping maw and cat 5 intensity well before landfall, which allowed a significant swell and surge to build before it made landfall (it weakened only very shortly before landfall). Ida has had less time, even though it will be stronger in terms of max wind. I suspect the wind damage will be the standout with this one -- though the surge on any cat4/cat5 is no slouch either.

    Yeah, you're probably talking about a surge approaching 20 ft at the mouth of the Mississippi here as opposed to 28 ft observed in Katrina in Mississippi. 

  12. 1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said:

    I think they are rated for a CAT 3 and no climate change? Don't know for sure but we do typically only build back things to prevent what happened (CAT 3) and not what could happen (this thing).

    The article I read suggested they were built for a 1 in 100 year storm in 2057. So they were assuming some sea level rise too. 

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