OSUmetstud

Meteorologist
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Posts posted by OSUmetstud


  1. 10 hours ago, dta1984 said:

    That's a huge percentage of non contagious positive tests

    "Public health experts throughout the U.S. are raising concerns that "standard [COVID-19] tests are diagnosing huge numbers of people who may be carrying relatively insignificant amounts of the virus," the New York Times reported on Saturday. A significant majority of the individuals who test positive "are not likely to be contagious," the paper says. "

    https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/report-90-covid-19-cases-might-not-be-contagious

    This is an old article. The NYT article which does a better job at describing the issue discusses why. Its likely that these people are being caught too late in their illness/infection when they get their positive test. Michael Mina discusses this back a few months ago on this week in virology. The average cycle to positive was 35 on the the RT-PCR meaning the majority of people are being caught after they are infectious. The point of care antigen testing thats being done more now is less sensitive so if you're positive from that you're more likely to fall in the infectious band. 

    The high sensitivity RT-PCR test is still needed for clinic diagnosis. When people are late in their illness and show up at the hospital sometimes they have very little virus left. The inflammatory response is whats killing people generally not when they have a huge amount of virus. 

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  2. Just now, winterwx21 said:

    Yeah I don't think we could exercise our way out of the pandemic completely, but we could make the pandemic less severe if most people improved their health through exercise. Which is why I feel health authorities should be pushing the exercise point as much as they push the mask wearing/social distancing point, but unfortunately you don't hear them do that much. Unfortunately there are a lot of people that don't realize that you can reduce risk through an exercise program.

    It's because it seems like a very circuitous way to get to your end goal. Scientist and health folks certainly know that being overweight leads to poor health outcomes in general, but you're going to get far more bang for your buck with social distancing, masking then you are with hoping that some people listen and get healthier. I don't believe obesity is as big of a problem in Europe as it is in US, but they're still having a hell of a time. 

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  3. 1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

    There are always exceptions, and obviously your cousin is one unfortunately. But the overwhelming majority of healthy althletes that get Covid get mild symptoms or no symptoms at all. Look at all the baseball and football players that have tested positive. Almost all have had very mild symptoms or no symptoms. I am a runner with an elite athlete heart (resting heart rate of 36) and had Covid back in April. All I had was a scratchy throat, slight headache and small amount of congestion for 3 days. Doctor said being in great shape is what caused it to be so mild for me. You greatly increase the chance of being a very mild case by being in great shape, but of course there will always be some unlucky exceptions like your cousin. I hope he gets better very soon.

    I think your point is well taken from an individual risk standpoint. You could potentially reduce your risk a bit by losing a bit of weight and exercising. The idea that we can exercise our way out of a pandemic though seems pretty tough, though. 

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  4. 15 hours ago, mattb65 said:

    This site which previously modeled out to the future has launched a new project trying to model backwards to answer the question you are looking into above.

    https://covid19-projections.com/

    Their best estimate is 48M total infections but a range from 32M to 73M

    Some pretty impressive/sad maps showing how widespread it has become in many of the midwest states while other states that put in measures to contain the thing - Hawaii, NH, VT, ME, CA, WA, OR have fared much better.

    Nice. This estimates look much more reasonable imo than his previous model estimates. His previous model had the summer wave like double the size of the spring wave which just didn't seem reasonable and wasn't consistent with the CDC antibody studies. I still might peg the summer wave a bit smaller than he does. I'm not sure equal size makes sense. 


  5. Just now, dan11295 said:

    Some rough math here, with some assumptions about how many cases are being missed now:

    Back at April peak we were catching ~25% of cases we are now. We have good comparison data now on this by comparing cases vs hospitalizations in states like PA/MI/NJ. Takes 4x as many cases now to get same number of hospitalizations. Means with with today's testing you would have had 40k cases a day in NY! It is assumed we are currently catching 25% of actual transmission now. and have been since about July.

    If you average out case load between April and early July (~3 Million cases were confirmed in this time period). you went from 16x to 4x ratio of real infections vs tested for mean of 10x.  So say (3Mx10 = 30 M real infections). From July until 16 days ago (to account for death report lag) you had 7Mx4=28M real infections. 250k/58M =~0.43% IFR.

    Obvious some error bars but would imply close to 800k deaths without a vaccine with a slow burn to herd immunity. (330M*0.6*0.004) ~800k. If we are lucky the vaccine will prevent maybe 450k of those.

    The population being infected does not represent a perfect slice of the US population. The implied IFR lowers since older folks are protecting themselves more than younger folks. You can see this reflected in the age stratified CDC commercial lab survey. 

    https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#national-lab

    I know the CDC IFR estimates from March/April is slightly over 1% when adjusted for population distribution and afaik we have not cut the disease IFR by better treatments in excess of 60 percent. 

    The UK hospitalization data is better than the US because its more nationalized. The in-hospital death rate there appears about 45% lower than the first wave. 

    16x early on is too high imo. The antibody data from that time averaged more like 12x. 

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  6. 6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

    Or people want to pay their bills? This is their livelihood, and there is no PPP. They worked 10, 20, 30 years to build up these businesses to have it taken away from them this year. Talk to me when you can't afford groceries for your kids or to keep your heat and water on. 

    This is the result of broken govt. No one should have to choose between death/health and financial ruin. 

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  7. 1 minute ago, A-L-E-K said:

    Cuomo is trash and did kill a bunch of people, this is true

     

    I agree he's trash. I'm still in the camp that scientifically speaking, I dont believing sending back stabilized patients well after peak infectiousness would significantly increase spread. Most of the spread would be from staff bringing in the virus from the outside. 


  8. Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

    So you're saying he successfully handled the pandemic despite having by far the most amount of deaths of any state? You think he should profit from other peoples sufferings? Is he the example we want to follow in how to combat this thing? He was late to apply for the extended UI because he dislikes Trump. I mean really...?

    No. I didnt say any of that. I'm questioning why he's responsible for every single nursing home death in his state while I never hear a damn thing about any other governor and their responsibility for nursing home deaths. 

    NY was hit harder than any of other state early. Nursing home deaths are proportional to community transmission. 

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  9. Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

    Cuomo killed 12,000 grandmas by sending them back to the nursing homes and wrote a book on how to deal with a pandemic that he is making tens of thousands of dollars on. He is condescending to anyone asking questions about his $25k salary increase in January while all the normal citizens suffer. He's the biggest joke of a governor in the country.

    Why is Cuomo the only governor responsible for all the nursing home deaths in his state? Nursing home deaths are still about 40% of all deaths across the entire country. Nursing home deaths are a huge problem and a large percentage of deaths in Europe, too. 

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  10. Just now, dta1984 said:

    You don't like it then gtfo.   They were grossly missused, the issue. 

    The original comment seemed to be more about how bad things are getting (like NYC) instead of the proper use of field hospitals. But hey you do your thing. 

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  11. 6 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

    You have to remember that a large number of people in NYC died at home instead... from covid and non-covid things.  Part of the reason why the field hospitals ended up being largely unused.

    The hospitals were still overwhelmed whether the field hospitals were used or not. Seems like people don't understand its not just a physical bed and equipment issue but if staff is asked to care for more than typical patients or if non icu docs are having to take of icu patients then the standard of care begins to dropping quickly and the death rate goes up. 

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  12. Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

    Do all vaccine side effects show up within 6 weeks, or are some months/years in the future? For instance measles, ebola, polio? 

    Idk. But here you can watch this and see what you think. He said the vast majority of them would show up early. Plus, I think you have to consider what the chance of getting sick and dying from covid as being likely much higher probability than a theoretical vaccine side effect. 

     

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  13. The stage 3 vaccine trial is being run like any other vaccine trial. The thing that we won't have is long term safety data for the EUA. But, basically all vaccine complications would show up in the first 6 weeks...according to Dr. Offett who is a vaccine expert on the board meeting in December. 

    Hopefully as more people get it and there's no issues and it stays very effective...less people will be hesitant. 

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  14. 7 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

    I am not talking about being vaccinated with a debilitated virus, but getting exposed from the environment the way 10's of millions have worldwide.      Isn't that what we are trying to achieve?

    That's exactly how the trial went. These two groups of people went out into the world a few months. The placebo people got infected far more often than the vaccinated group. 


  15. Just now, Malacka11 said:

    That's sort of what I meant, you just wrote it way better. I think it's bogus to compare cali to most other areas simply due to population density. On paper, states with big cities are simply at a huge disadvantage. 

    In pure numbers I agree. But if you adjust per capita you can see the worst areas currently are places like North and South Dakota which are decidedly rural. 

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  16. Just now, Malacka11 said:

    This is where population density also plays a roll. Just saying.

    I think a good deal of the worst spread is now in rural areas actually. The virus took awhile to spread from the cities to the burbs to the rural areas. 

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  17. Just now, dta1984 said:

    Denmark study that was referenced earlier

    20201120_131528.jpg

    23 percent reduction in infection from control to mask but it was underpowered so it didn't reach significance. Also didn't address whether others wearing masks protect you from them which was the original driver of wearing masks.

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  18. Just now, TugHillMatt said:

    I appreciate your apology. Thanks. I wish Falls were LONGER...favorite season! (I lived in the Muskoka region of Ontario for 1.5 years...most beautiful falls and wintriest area I've ever lived!)

    The falls here are fairly long as we get the SST lag with temps and snow. But we dont seem to get great color. We dont get great radiational cooling and wet and windy falls can lead to a lot of yellow and brown leaves that get blown off the trees prematurely...


  19. Just now, TugHillMatt said:

    Nope...climate sucks. lol

    All places have their pros and cons though. New Yorkers are a tough people with rough exteriors...but very, very generous. Also, there are many hard workers here. Southerners tend to be more passive about getting things done and have some of the "fake" hospitality.

    I was a bit snippy I apologize. I know its not often easy for people to get up and move to another location. 

    I love snow but I still hate the cold springs and early summers out here.