Tatamy

18z NAM - still snowing across the region at 84 hours.  The run total would include the Monday event.

18z NAM

18z HRRR

12z GEPS/CMCE

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

Guess Euro will end all this is turning into a rainstorm posts. 

18z NAM starts in less than an hour.

Here is nice view of how that 850mb jet crushes the mountains of northern NJ and NE Pennsylvania.

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Some of that is tomorrow yes?

About a half inch in some places.  Euro is not in for tomorrow's "event".

1 minute ago, jdj5211 said:

can someone post the Kuchera map...does EURO have one?

Just now, jfklganyc said:

Then don’t move to Albany because you’ll be nowhere near the Adirondacks

Albany got 2.7" and the Adirondacks got zip on this run of the Euro.  They will get theirs this winter.

3 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Enough for blizzard conditions

Just now, HeadInTheClouds said:

There is no way Albany is getting 2 ft. Just not going to happen. 

Exactly.

Albany is in a valley location.  How are they going to get the snow amount forecasted with that easterly flow at 850mb coming over the mountains of central New England.  Based on the orographics alone this outcome on the Ukie is very suspect.

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

Imby but it went from 18" to 0.2" for me in the last 2 runs lol. 

It took your snow and is dumping it on Albany now... lol

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It hasn't changed all that much

Albany went from 3.7" at 0z to 20.5" at 12z at 96 hours.  That does seem odd...

12z GEFS

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Rgem is a huge rainstorm right now. 

For who?

11 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

It's hard for me to get excited about weather with everything going on, but I check in here from time to time. Wha happen? A week ago people were writing winter off....now we are looking at a big storm? PS just got two big snow blowers, a 28 inch Yard machine and and 24 in craftsman, for next to nothing as Sears liquidates its remaining stock....I was thinking to put them in storage until....I really just thought a small one would be fine given the last 3 years....seriously one was 149$ and the other was 299$....less than what it costs to fix my old ones....

I have had one of those 28 inch Yard machine blowers for 12 years now.  It's a really nice machine.  Good for you on getting that deal - that is a fantastic price.

12z NAM

12z HRRR

16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Since you're in Bethlehem I'll ask you- did you get 30 inches in Jonas too?  I was on Long Island for it 4 miles from JFK where we did get it, but I know there was a sharp cut off to the north.  In PA my other home is one county north of Allentown, in Carbon county.  Did that area also see 30"?  I know south of I-80 was where the heaviest snows were and I'm south of I-80.  Do you know of any snowfall totals out of the Lehighton/Albrightsville/Lake Harmony/Bear Creek area (elevation around 2000 ft)?  Thanks!

 

I received 30” here.  The airport at Allentown measured 31.9”. Up in the Carbon Cty area that you are referring to totals were less with amounts ranging from 10 to 20” depending on your location.  That was near the northern edge of the storm’s effects.

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Yes but Jonas had those amazing winds too- JFK had confirmed blizzard conditions for 6 straight hours.  I've never seen that before, ever.  A few years later we had a mini Jonas (I dont remember the name of that storm) where we had blizzard whiteout conditions for 3 straight hours, but those are the only two times I've seen that.  Complete whiteout for hours couldn't see a thing outside during the middle of the day....

 

The winds with Jonas were strong around the NYC area but not so much further inland.  This storm will bring strong winds further inland as well. 

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

No matter what this storm does, it wont be able to match the historic nature of Jonas.  in Jan 2016 we had a wide area of 30" plus snows that stretched from Allentown across Morristown and right to JFK and Western Long Island.  And it fell for 30 hours!  It's going to be extremely difficult for any storm to ever match that regardless of where you live  in our area.

 

I would not speak to soon regarding the outcome of this storm and whether it matches Jonas.  As currently modeled this storm will be accompanied by strong gusty winds to 50 mph or more.  This will whip up the dry powdery snow into huge drifts of up to 6-10 feet or more in many places   This is the type of storm that can shut down highways for several days exacerbating existing supply chain shortages across many industries.  This is what a crippling blizzard does.

18z GEFS