Cheeznado

Now that the shutdown is over, any word on when the FV3 will replace the GFS?

18Z FV3 has .8 in Atlanta. Models now very consistent.

This NWS map seems reasonable. 15Z SREF and 12Z EPS are .5-1" for Atlanta. New NAM a bit over 1.

2 minutes ago, CentralNC said:

Yeah probably less and 1 in 10 of these ever produce much.  Only ones I can recall are Jan 78, Jan 85 (super outbreak), Jan 99, and Jan 02(or 03 cant remember which).  So, yes not getting my hopes up.

Jan 95 had some post frontal snow in Atlanta.....

Models have backed off, only 2 SREF members over 1" in ATL, 3KM NAM not impressed. LOL that earlier NAM.... 

Just now, CaryWx said:

It's the 84hr NAM.  Show that look at 48hrs and maybe more believable?

No way a post frontal downsloping situation will ever produce that much snow.

The NAM is on crack, no way we get 8" LOL. The consensus from other models is still about an inch here.

Two runs in a row of the NAM show a very sharp drop in temps and some pretty good snow rates- 1-2" in 3 hours or less. 2M temps fall sharply to 26 by 18Z. This is similar to an event on Jan 26, 1985 where we got an inch or so just behind a strong front.

Hey, this is no longer long term, am going to start a separate thread for the post-frontal snow.

So, the Tuesday event is now within NAM range- time for a separate thread? Not really long range any more......

14 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Aren’t most op models showing this to some degree? GFSv3, GFS,CMC, Euro? It’s not like Euro is on an island 

Er.....No. Not even close.

This big switch by the Euro is not believable IMO. Had no ensemble support last night and little if any from the 12Z GEFS. When any model jumps around like that it is usually wrong. 

16 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

I'm liking the 2/1-2/2 potential.  Looks like plenty of cold air available if some of the energy dropping down can amplify a little bit, at this lead time we might see some mega-hits showing up on the models soon.

Almost no ensemble support for this- pattern is too progressive. Not optimistic after the Tues event.

0Z Op Euro backed off on the quick .5-1" event in ATL but most of the ensemble members and new FV3 still have us getting some minor accumulation before the cold air sets in. As I stated before, that would be a traffic nightmare.

I am getting more confident that the Atlanta area could see an impactful event next Tuesday now that the Euro has come on board- even if it only an inch- with the temps falling quickly into the 20s by evening that would create a nightmare road scenario.

Huge difference between the 00Z GEFS and the 06Z (much less favorable here)- going to be a while before we get any clarity. Even on the EPS there are only a bit under 50% of the members that have accumulations in Atlanta.

The main threat I am seeing on the GEFS is a week from late Monday/Tuesday, not that much hope for more than a dusting with the Saturday system IMO.

For Atlanta, the Euro ensembles are still mostly saying no but the GEFS is on board with the majority of members showing at least 1 inch

Just now, Amos83 said:

I think the bust is more due to the storm being further south if I was reading the disco out of Norman, OK correctly. I'd could be wrong though

I think that is exactly what is happening.

Pinch me, I will be headed to AVL tomorrow very early- if they get over 18" (and that seems to be a growing consensus) it will be the biggest snow storm ever there- also I have never personally seen that much snow in one storm.

Booked a 2 night stay in AVL, should be fun.

Since here in ATL we will just get a nasty cold rain, I plan to travel up to the AVL area, the ensembles have been incredibly consistent with some very hefty totals, check out the 06Z ensembles- 14 members with 20" or more.

This is a big shift for the GEFS- previous runs had half of the members a trace or nothing.

This NAM trend is not surprising, just coming to the GEFS and EPS, a general 1-3" event here in GA, mainly from here SW. It was never going to stick much anyway, its early Dec for pity's sake,  so no cliff diving here since I was suspicious of a big event all along. If I get a nice dusting to an inch or two on the grass it will be a bonus considering how much more of the winter is left.

15 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Is that the mean Cheez?

Yep. 2-3" from Atlanta west.