Cheeznado

I felt the 10% hatched risk was overdone, I am pretty sure most if not all of the tornadoes reported were gustnadoes.

There are a lut of storms interfering wuth each other, the HRRR reflacts this. Could be a bit of an underperformer today.

Decided not to chase, The morning CAMs suggest a line, embedded tornadoes are a given but combined with storm speeds and terrain/trees, it does not seem worth the effort. It looked like despite all the PDS warnings last night and the numerous damage reports, the number of fatalities was pretty low, thank goodness. Here in GA another nocturnal event. We seems to never have any afternoon severe situations any more.

This is a forecast sounding from eastern MS from the 18Z NAM. Those are some scary parameters. Right now I would be surprised if there are not at least a couple of long-track strong tornadoes Saturday over MS and AL especially.

Since I got 3.5" with the last storm my .5" this time was just fine, a good trade for the incredible historic snows further south. Got down to 13F last night, lots of more road issues this morning. Atlanta always has a traffic nightmare in these types of scenarios, partly because a lot of people have no idea how to drive if the roads are slick at all, but also because any sort of hill was impossible to drive on. Should resolve soon.

Florida is going to destroy it's all time snow record which is either 4 or 5 inches, already close to 6.  All time record in New Orleans. What a storm and I got some here also! 

Total 1/2" of snow. Very unusual to get 2 accumulating events here in one winter. I'm very pleased. Of course the roads are a nightmare, accidents galore.

36 minutes ago, GaWx said:

My sis in Emory area FaceTimed me and it is coming down heaviest yet with a nice dusting!

That's where I am. It was heavy for a while.

What's really ironic is that a lot of models said we would get .2 to .4 and that will be exactly correct.

Heavy snow band in ATL, Looks like it is about to end, picked up the forecasted dusting, just never expected these kind of rates. EDIT: the back end was advancing, now it is not. We may get an ibnch or two. Amazing.

1/8 S+ 

UPDATE: visibility 1/2 mile. Wow, did not expect this. 

Well i'll be hornswoggled.  Out of nowhere an almost moderate snow band developed. Visibility 1 mile or so

Very small snowflakes here now.

6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I think the airport might see a half inch, downtown less.  The Euro did have like 1.1 at the airport based on .08 QPF but I think some of that will be lost to dry air as it had snow by 1830-19z

The low dew points are killing us, -1 in Cartersville, 9 at the airport.

Well, I stand corrected. Looks like some snow will occur, interesting that the GFS has 1.4 while the HRRR a trace. A dusting seems like the most likely outcome. 

As I thought the dry air is preventing any snow from reaching the ground, looking at the radar would not be surprised if we get nary a flake.

4 minutes ago, neatlburbwthrguy said:

can you post this map by chance?  i cant find it

Boy, dew points are super low way to the south in the low single digits, I think that might cut down on accumulations, not sure how well the models handle that.

15Z SREF has no significant north shift, but does increase probs in central/south GA

Big issue here is the extremely dry airmass. The precip that some models show may be overdone due to a lot of the precip being virga, hard to saturate the column when you are not int he area with the best dynamics. Still think a dusting here is the best we can expect.

32 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

New blend


.

Gotta be older runs in there. That is way too far north.

Euro ensembles confirm the trend. Frankly, personally I would rather see a cool historic Gulf Coast snow than an inch or two here, I already had 3.5" with the last system.

On 1/18/2025 at 9:33 AM, Brick Tamland said:

The Canadian has been pretty consistent. 

Not any more

SREF probabilities shifted significantly south. I think I might be lucky to see any snow at all.