BlizzardNole

Beautiful map MilleVilleWx!  I am locking that up and tossing any models that disagree 

Nice to see Dunkirk in the 4-6" on the LWX map.  Hi Wes!

That Jan. 30, 2010 storm -- my forecast was 2-4" and my parents in Calvert were 6-10, so I went down there.  They got 7.5" and back home in Germantown was 7" LOL

@Ka60:  do you mean approaching 9" using the standard 6-hour measurements, or 9" on the ground?  Despite being so close, Clarksburg can get significantly more than me down here at the intersection of 355 and 27.  One time in an elevation dependent event, I saw 3-4" on the ground a few miles up 27 when I had a coating of slush.

Cute picture there @wxtrix!  Likes to chase bugs huh -- just wait 'til the 17-year cicadas come this May!

These bands have really made up for the bitter disappointment of Sunday.  I never did measuring so I'll be curious to see what people nearby came up with.

57 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The upper level component with this storm has been incredible. How often do you see it snowing in Richmond, Bar Harbor, and Pittsburgh at the same time?

 

And raining in Boston hee hee.  Sorry but with all their superbowls and blizzards, I get a little kick out of that.

Nice snow globe effect with fluffy flakes.  I love when it's snowing and the grass is completely covered.  How about this little typo here LOL:

30 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Philly got 6.1" lol

Boston proper got just a couple inches and flipped to rain/snow mix all night.  Mostly rain now and 34 degrees at Logan, while NYC got wrecked.

Nice snow falling here now as I've just gotten under the band.

4 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Look at that moisture field right over emmitsburg to Gettysburg. Crazy. Someone will hit 20+ up there by the time it’s over.   

And there it is -- just north of Sabillasville.  The ob says they had 2 inch per hour rates for hours.  Incredible!

21 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said:

Lol. This is seriously getting on my nerves. I'm not getting another 5" in Germantown. I'm at 2".

I have no idea how the models can be so bad. This model told me 18 hours from the event that I'd be getting 11" of snow. Throughout the event, it has continued to say "Oh don't worry, you're still gonna get 8 more. 6 more. 5 more."

That it can be so wrong, even NOW, mid event, after all that's happened so far... it just blows my mind.

Give me 2". Let me beat my December snow. Let me meet my minimum threshold for Capital Weather Gang's "bust" range (which I still haven't met yet, I'm only at 2" and they said it would be a bust at 4").

I LOL when I saw that Euro map with 5" for Germantown.  I bet we don't see 5 cm.  My prediction is just some snow TV with no accumulation.

Never get excited ahead of time unless we have a Miller A low coming out of the Gulf and up the coast with arctic high in the perfect position.  

Still all sleet near Germantown.  I checked out the Philly sub out of curiosity and was surprised to read about a raging sleet storm up there.

4 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said:

Sleetfest in Germantown, pretty significant amounts. 

So look... the snow totals in this storm, for me at least, suck. Like, I was excited for the Euro models, but then I was like "at least I'll be happy if I break double digits", then the CWG/LWX forecasts came out, and I revised to "at least I'll be happy if I break 6"". Now I'm still sitting at 2" which is under even the "bust" range for CWG.

BUT. One thing I do like about this event is the non-stop winter precip for 2-3 days in a row. It keeps the winter storm feeling going for a long time. That's nice. It looks like a beautiful mess outside

Good thoughts.  I'm over it now but I was checking out the cells in the Panic Room yesterday and WxWatcher had his sickle ready to go.  I mean even the 10% low end amount for NWS was about 4" for me and I got 2".  But like you said it's a long duration winter weather event and that's cool.

Still sleet here and 29 degrees.  Just imagine being under these echoes NE of Philly:

5 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Anybody have a good link to a base nexrad radar or something? Sorry, but this damn interactive radar the NWS updated to annoys the hell out of me.

Here's Weather Underground.  I'm with you -- I don't like the new NWS radar

https://www.wunderground.com/radar/us/va/sterling/lwx

Light snow grains and 27.  We sure kept surface temps over night!  I should have waited to clear the driveway and walkway because now you could skate on them.  

27 minutes ago, Ruin said:

So I have to ask when the weather service calls for heavy snow is it the size of the flakes? or is it the rate in which it falls? or can it be both?

Intensity is typically tied to visibility, with heavy snow being visibility of less than a quarter mile.  I think of heavy snow as about 1 inch per hour.  Not necessarily flake size as sometimes you can have large wet flakes but spaced way apart.

Get this -- NYC could see rates of 2-4 inches at times.  Man to see that.

This has been a painful lesson for most of us.  Stick to the formula next time we have a Miller B -- take your forecast snow amount and divide the lower number in half.  For example, your forecast says 4-8" total, expect 2".  Works 95% of the time.  Works for clippers too.

Oh, light frz drizzle and 29.  Less total winter snow than Shreveport, VA Beach, Rocky Mount NC, Richmond and Madrid

30 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said:

 

What are you at? We are right by each other. I was at a solid 2" when I measured a couple hours ago.

We are in Milestone, just north of the intersection of Rts. 355 and 27.  I might be moving soon......to the Panic Room

Bwaahahahaha even lower St Mary's County did better than pathetic upper MontCo.  What a snow hole.  We are the new Richmond

24 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Man what a bust, we got maybe 2" tops and now it's rain.  Can't believe I spent so much time tracking this system.  Sigh, them's the breaks I guess.  We definitely busted low relative to almost all the models, maybe the 3k NAM was close?  How about that canadian, lmao.  

If it makes you feel any better we only got 2" up here in Germantown well NW of the city and we're done.  My forecast was 6-8 and my low end was 4".  Huuuuuuuge bust.  My thinking is we had a chance on Dec. 16 and failed and we had this chance and failed miserably again.  We will not get another chance in a Nina winter.  We're done

5 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I think the Richmond area is going to beat the DC area if the costal misses.

Yup.  Multiple 4-5 inch amounts down there.  Places that have had more snow than DC:  Richmond, Virginia Beach (LOL), Louisiana, central North Carolina, Madrid Spain

Very light snow and just under 2" on the ground.  Looks to be over.  Starting to fill out paperwork for the Panic Room

I doubted this thing all week but finally bought in yesterday and believed we were getting 6 inches plus.  The joke's on me.  I forgot to use the Mid-Atlantic Miller Bust Formula -- take your predicted range, and divide the lower number by half.  For example predicted 6-10 you're getting 3.

Now I will not believe in any system no matter what the models show.  Bring on spring.

About 1.5" and barely snowing, sky brightening.

9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Mini band #2 setting in. Should crack 2.5cms with this one. My new strategy when my yard is obviously not getting jacked is switching to metric. Coping mechanism. Working brilliantly right now. Should easily crack 5cms before noon.

Ha!  I should have set my bar at 6 cm instead of 6 inches.  It's starting to look like that split where south of us does better with the thump and the coastal misses us north.  I'd be surprised to see more than 3" total now.

10 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Southern Maryland reporting in. 

 

Wow, nice looking yard!  My sister lives in Huntingtown, right near the high school.  Parents are a couple miles up the road, brother in Ches Beach.  I experienced  lot of winter pain growing up in Calvert!  It's fun when you win there though (my God the Blizzard of 79).

1 inch now near Germantown, very light now and sky is brightening.  Uh oh?

Very light snow with a dusting in Germantown, 29 degrees.  My bar for this storm is 6" and that might be tough with the way things look right now.  My point-click forecast is just 2-4 for today and I don't think we get any here tomorrow.

15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That hole is an area that got unlucky twice. Ended up between bands during the WAA then again during the deform. Subsidence can be cruel. Btw euro started to pick up on that duel banding structure on the NW side that happens EVERY time. There will always, in EVERY storm, be unlucky little pockets like that. I actually ended up in one in 2016. I got 28”, and no I’m not complaining one bit I’m not crazy, but all around me got 30-36”. I ended up in a couple dead zones between banding and oh well. But no model can get either the meso banding or the associated screw zones between them right from 24 hours let alone 72 so I wouldn’t sweat it.  That’s something for the now cast. 

Hurts when it happens!  In 1/25/2000, I got stuck between heavy bands to the east and west, and even had sun peaking out.  I measured about 7" while areas all around got double or more.

I don't think most would be upset at 5-10 for much of the forum; it's the trends that are scaring people that we might end up with a minor event or even a whiff.  My bar is 6" without rain washing it away.  I'd be very happy with one storm like that as I was expecting a shutout winter.