powderfreak

LOL--Messenger's 'in-storm' pbp freaks me out everytime. I become convinced I'll only get flurries.

Haha I reread a thread from Jan 2011 where that poster wxwatcher from SNH lost it on Messenger for all the east trend posts...because basically anyone west of ORH was becoming afraid of only seeing flurries with every RUC run that "ticked east." Then they got buried out in GC with a deform band later in the thread, so who knows.

In this case though I think the east trend has to be watched. There's too many meso models way east, though it would suck to see the King fall on it's face to the GFS or something lol.

Looking at the "center to east" camp....in some manner they have the speedmax near the Delmarva.  Euro was very shy with that feature.  The models that are center to east leaning all use that to some degree to sling those features up on the east side (the northward movement along 70) at a more rapid pace vs the Euro.   Indeed you'll see some of the models are already closing a contour in the next few hours out there while the Euro waits a bit to organize everything and as WPC has noted for days - is SLOWER with the north progression of the low which allows for a further west wrap with the eventual capture.

 

A historic blizzard is on tap.  For those in subsidence zones based on the 12z Euro I wouldn't sweat it as IMO that model was definitely too far S&W with the evolution - I think it's very obvious right now.  I have no idea which model was most right and the reality of it is it doesn't matter for most.   It may keep James all snow and pummel the Cape more...and there could be less on the fringes as has been the trend.

 

But clearly you can see the thrust from about due SE of NYC...that point south is having a very hard time moving west which is now well behind the Euro maps.  The axis is going to be right over/near or just NE of the City.  NAM also appears to be well too far west, IMO.

 

Many a classic snowstorms for SNE involve the Messenger east trend posts.  No idea why it happens, but it happens often enough.  Always a tick east, tick east, tick east.  Wouldn't be a snowstorm without your analysis.

deep down in your inner weenie mind you dream of the Euro's 1" QPF verifying....what would that be 18-20" with ratio's in that deform

 

Not deep down...right on the surface of my mind I hope the Euro's right . 

 

But its sort of relaxing to watch a storm with absolutely nothing at risk.  Just call it and comment as I see fit with no agenda.  Of course I'd rather be looking at a bullseye, but it is refreshing not to have anything at stake and just watch without freaking out over little things.

NYC is getting pretty lucky with that narrow band of snow.  That may save them if some of the eastern solutions are correct.  It looks like just north and south of the city hasn't gotten much of anything though.

I love the east vs. west....north vs south...NE vs. SW...etc battles that go on in here during these storms while jockeying for jackpots and hardest impacts.

Nice W. MA has moaned their way to the 24-36 range and meanwhile I get subsidence and only 18 inches

 

Yes, they moaned their way into a *FORECAST* for 24-36".

Looks like the GFS vomited right up to go time once again....lol.

 

This is one the most fascinating nowcast I can remember.  The stakes are huge.  There's the EURO/NAM, and RGEM/GFS/HRRR/RAP.

Some models just shouldnt be used..it causes confusion and panic......and I fall right into it lol. I admit, I am not ashamed that my butt cheeks are tightly clenched for the next 8 hours. 

 

Haha, yeah like the RAP at 18 hours out.

 

I would've expected a much better H7 presentation than wrapping dry air in and split omega.  That should be a wall of high RH and omega jamming from NYC through New England up into Maine.

 

Why are short range models so southeast? It makes a world of difference for NYC. So close in and we still dont have consensus for upton's western zones. 

 

Yeah its puzzling...the RAP doesn't even get the deform band to ORH through 18 hours.

Significant tick east on the 18z rgem.  Not buying it.

 

rgem_18z_1-26-15.gif

 

Wow... 10mm is like .4" and 20mm is .8" ect... but that's really quite low from Tolland-ORH and west.  Like 0.8" QPF for Tolland and west.

2.5km HRDPS Canadien model had the BOS/PVD/LI corridor jackpotting with a secondary jackpot on the cape at 12z. East like rgem.

 

That's a new one.  Big storms always bring out some interesting models haha.

Thanks, You left some qpf on the table for your brethren to the east here, Take it to hr 54 please, Thanks

 

It was only out to that at the time, haha.  don't worry, we know you guys are getting big snow.

I'm not worried one bit by that garbage.LOL..every other piece of useable guidance shifted east and it goes even farther west. There's going to be some disappointed folks to the west of SNE if they are hanging hats on NAM

 

Haha you seem worried when you are trying to pass off negativity/disappointment on others.

18z NAM QPF... two large metro areas just destroyed.  A Tolland County nightmare.  The NYC battle is amazing... EURO and NAM going big, a lot of other models going quite low.

 

When the srefs are east and the Nam is now truly by itself.. Well that sums it up

 

Well the NAM looks like the EURO as far as banding goes.

Compare the latest SREFs to the EURO... lol.  Not even close.  I can't believe the SREFs have gotten this bad inside of 24 hours.

 

Wow at the 18z NAM from NYC to BOS.  That crushes NYC.  IMO, that'll be the most interesting aspect of this storm right now...although no one in here probably cares, there's a fascinating war going on about how much snow falls in the United States' largest city.

 

TWC showed an RPM run that gave NYC 3-5", and then showed the EURO with 2 feet.  Covering it all.

Those are similar to this area too. Incredible differences this close to gametime.

I can't even find a GFS ensemble members or even a SREF ARW member that shows that much precip reaching the ALB-BTV longtitude. Something funky happened in that run.

Euro gets it way north. It should be more SW-NE at our lat when arriving and then N-S before pivoting out.

Dryslot...close to 1.50" I'd say for you.

EURO rots the deform band up here. That's ridiculous and I toss. You can see how it lingers QPF up here for several panels.

Anyway, hard numbers are 1.4" for Lewiston and 1.7" for Laconia, 1.0" for MVL. I'll eat my hat if Dryslot only gets 0.4" more QPF than up here. That was a bizarre run.

So as I see it for up here...

NAM...0.2"

GGEM...0.15"

GFS...0.4"

UKMET...0.1"

ECMWF...1.0"

The King is either a hero or it falls really hard.

1.50" line from LEB to IZG

1.00" line from PF to the Ct Lakes...lol

Yeah I'm not sure what to do with that. Nothing else has more than 0.4" of QPF.

goosebumps

That hour 24 map is save worthy for you guys.

What the heck just happened? It's got a foot of snow up here and all other models have 2-3".

Euro not backing down for WNE and up here. Wow.

WTF... 1.0" QPF up here. Are you f'ing kidding me?!

The more I look at this, the more I think it's the south shore that could school everyone. The high ratio deform band will deliver but the south shore from BOS-PVD and SE is going to get bombed with like 3" QPF of "real man snow" lol, along with 40-70mph winds.