powderfreak

Wow. In October none the less.

I didn’t see anything sticking down in town but up here the view at the office is of snowy trees.

Pitcher also failed to back up the catcher, as soon as that ball is hit to the outfield he should be running behind the catcher to backup the play at the plate...instead he’s standing in no mans land in front of home plate. It was a pure little league play, ha.

That was one of the craziest things I’ve watched. Two outs, bottom of the 9th... the “Double Buckner” they call it.

Pretty detailed BTV AFD/area forecast discussion regarding the short term system. .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 320 PM EDT Saturday...Positive thickness advection and an influx of deep moisture should produce abundant clouds and light precipitation on Monday. Temperatures at the onset of precipitation should be cool enough to allow for some wintry precipitation. Portions of the Northeast Kingdom and areas at or above 2000ft agl should see some snow at the onset, followed by transition to a wintry mix, and then rain. Forecast soundings around Saranac Lake, NY and Nulhegan, VT have fairly complex thermal profile with the inversion far aloft around 7000ft agl only just above freezing with a layer below freezing sandwiched in between wet-bulb temperatures near freezing at the surface. Elsewhere, depth of warmer air is greater and stronger, which would make for a cold rain. Overall, the best forcing and precipitation takes place in the afternoon, with profiles becoming above freezing with a quick transition towards rain (except perhaps across the far northeast corner of Vermont). Thus, it looks like a fairly damp and cool Monday with forecast highs in the mid 40s. For such a weak low, the precipitation it produces is impressive, aided by the deep-level of saturation and good isentropic lift. Cross isobaric flow at potential temperatures of 295K should lift moisture from around 850mb to 780mb with relative ease. Rainfall totals of 0.25"-0.50" seems likely. Weak surface low deepens as it departs eastwards. Some northwesterly flow should allow precipitation to linger higher peaks and near the foothills with semi-blocked flow and higher relative humidities remaining. The DGZ becomes unsaturated, though, and would likely not produce anything high quality from the departing system. Overnight lows expected to fall into the 30s.

I could see analyzing a 1-2 hour period of wintry precip before rain down there in mid-winter. Sort of like a perpetual NNE October/November all winter long. Anyway, over by you and Alex has the best chance as starting as some snow or wintry mix with the WAA moving in aloft initially over a very marginally cold air mass.

Short term, I wonder if we can start as a very brief period of snow on Monday morning. I’ve seen it on a few models here and there over the past couple days. Soundings look pretty isothermal and it hits at a favorable part of the day around sunrise to 12z from here and points NE into N.NH/W.ME.

As far as I know, all of that is getting baked into the capacity limits set. With years of ticket scanned data they have a good database of consumer patterns... when people show up, when people leave, how many people actually ski all day, how many in the morning, how many in the afternoon, etc. All that data is getting baked into the capacity constraints. They know that on average X-number of people can and will show up after 12-1pm, and X-number are likely to leave by 10-11am, so will include that in the daily capacity algorithm. It’s not going to be perfect, but should work.

Yup I actually have been making that same point a lot lately whenever it comes up.

I posted some shots a few nights ago in the banter thread I think. It’s been just as busy in Stowe as any other fall foliage season. Huge traffic jams, long waits for everything, etc. Just packed. IMO the quarantine guidelines seem to be just that... guidelines (with no enforcement) not laws. Its like the State said “The speed limit guideline on the highway is 65mph, but no there will be no enforcement, no troopers, no radar guns.” Everyone would drive however they please. Just this morning was chatting with a car rally that stayed overnight here and they were from all over the country. Lamborghinis, Ferrari’s, Bentley, Rolls Royce, Porsche’s, etc...impressive cars. They were over in North Conway I think and next stop is Lake Placid. There was probably $2 million in the parking lot in vehicles.

I still don't think I see enforcement. It seems like that moves into an uncomfortable level of state's rights. I personally am not for enforcement. I think it can be an ask, a request, but legally I'm not on board with actual enforcement. I think the only reason for some sort of control valve is from how busy it has been this fall. Any outbreak, tourist and especially employees, has the potential to shut things down at least on a local or business level.

I believe it. It has not been "dead' and you don't hear the tourist industry cratering, to be honest. You made a great choice. If I was working remotely or owning a company on cruise control as I think you put it, I'd probably be heading further away and out there. We really enjoy the services, restaurants and general stuff going on here at this time in our life, but at this rate we'll be heading further out in the next 5 years. Might be too late by then with the real estate market though.

It has been incredible! It's so crowded the experience is actually negatively affected on that end. Some of these people think they are going to be "sneaking in" to enjoy a less crowded area... LOL joke was on them. Thousands of people in town lately... the Waterbury/Stowe stretch of RT 100 from I-89 has been bumper to bumper for a month straight.

What would this look like without any travel restrictions!?! Just overwhelmed as it is. There's money flowing.

Not if this fall is any indication. We've had too many people to handle 50% restaurant seating and the regional ski area activities. Wait times at the Stowe and Killington gondolas were 1-2 hours for a month worth of weekends in a row. This is why I was saying people have been getting angry because they can't go out to dinner (sold out at 50% occupancy), they can't ride the Gondola (1-2 hour wait), they can't take the Toll Road (huge wait and traffic)... These are crowds with severe quarantine restrictions! Backed up a good half mile from the summit. Bumper to bumper grid lock... like Cape Cod on July 4th! A very long way from the Gondola. Cars parking as far as you can see. Only reason for the open spaces is they stopped letting cars in.

2” last hour, 4” on the ground lol. KMSP 201953Z 09009KT 1/4SM R30L/2800V3000FT SN FZFG VV006 M01/M01 A3011 RMK AO2 SLP205 SNINCR 2/4 P0010 T10061011

You know where the airport is relative to the city?

That is a massive area of 30dbz or higher and it’s not moving.

You should hear the Canadian public service announcements on the radio up here. My wife is always like “What the hell was that? Oh that’s the Canadian station.” The Montreal radio stations have these dire warnings... “Gathering with family and friends is prohibited. We are now back into Level-4 Maximum Alert. Bars, restaurants are now closed. All activities cancelled. Visit website.Ca for more information.” Etc. I should record it. It sounds like end of the world and they play these alerts like every 15 minutes.

Yeah not going in the right direction. Today’s news was that per New York’s criteria, Conn/PA/NJ would now require a 14-day quarantine to enter New York but Gov. Cuomo made the smart decision because of NYC to only strongly discourage travel from Connecticut, Jersey and Pennsylvania to New York. But they would be red otherwise by the metrics. Lucky for NYC... or New York would be a no fly zone for all neighboring states except VT and MA. Everything going in the wrong direction with more states and areas added weekly to different state restrictions. #BREAKING: TECHNICALLY, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Connecticut now qualify for the quarantine list. However, Gov. Cuomo says they're too interconnected to quarantine from, so travel is just highly "discouraged" there. >>

Yeah there’s nothing I can’t do... everything is open. Movie theater and bowling alley and all, but I’m not big on that stuff anyway. Don’t know one thing closed around here. But I do think folks are still quite sensitive to the public health guidelines, maybe more than other parts of the U.S.

Hard to say IMO. I go more with people over profits type mentality but that’s Vermont bleeding into me lol. Then again if you tell people we might get another $1200 stimulus, the answer is usually “Why?” Plenty of jobs available, can’t fill them. I think the small businesses need help but I don’t see or know of anyone out of work due to COVID anymore. I think we might have struck the right balance inadvertently.

Yup, definitely more liberal state plays into it here despite the Republican gov. He’d be a socialist in Florida, ha. But I am sure if I didn’t go to work I wouldn’t hear about COVID except online. You just wear a mask indoors and do your business.

No vaccine and the state guidance. Do you know if NH workers do the same checkpoint and screening like here and Mass (like TauntonBlizz said)? I think working at a physical location and not working from home you get exposed to it a lot more. If Mass does this too with workers, then it’s not as weird as I thought lol. I truly think if you were up here at a second home like you are in a rural area you wouldn’t know it either. Go into the NEK, COVID gone, lol.

Was something wrong? I know this is extremely stressful for you, but if you are doing you then just live your life. I get what you see online, but don’t let it ruin your day... just like taking comments personally regarding politics online. I still haven’t seen anything in real life or heard from any tourists and I come in contact with A LOT of them. Thousands and thousands the last few weekends. They seemed to be smiling and laughing and having fun. Don’t let the internet ruin it for you, people are having fun it seems.