powderfreak

I was thinking about your posts when I said that. Much better vibe when they are off. But can’t have Pickle’s cougar slip in her fur boots leaving the hotel in January.

Yeah these events are pretty stable once the models figure it out. Not much changes as opposed to like a coastal storm or synoptic events. We’ll see what tonight brings, I think we can do double digits at 1500ft.

Getting consistent 5” measurements around the base area at 1500ft. It’s so windy though it’s like 0-10” outside this plaza. The heated sidewalks aren’t turned on yet!! Ha. Not bad for round 1... tonight’s round looks like it has twice the water.

Ha, that’s awesome. About what I’d expect without any wind. You’ll get a foot from this event.

Looks like MVL ASOS is at 1/2sm Moderate Snow, that's a good sign being they are decently east of the crest. KMVL 021354Z AUTO 29010G18KT 1/2SM SN FZFG VV010 M02/M04 A2952 RMK AO2 SLP006 P0000 T10171039

The Spine just ripping flakes out of the clouds. Easily 1"/hr at the ski resort... best guess would be around 4" at the base right now. It's got some density to it up here too, plows actually have something to push around. J.Spin has to be getting pummeled. Probably the same rates as up here but without the wind.

CPicks favorite hotel.

Wow. Full Blizzard conditions at 1500ft. PD was getting ready to shut down RT 108 at Harlow Hill. Wide loads stuck at the base and numerous cars off further up the road. Roads are a sheet of ice at 28F with snow on top. Plow can’t scrape that ice layer from the initial melting. 1/4sm or less visibility up here at the base.

Yeah it’s backed up close to BTV true. Left for work and had just under 2” on the car at 750ft. We’ll see what 1500ft has shortly.

It’s hard to tell, it’s definitely ripping snow here. The scans make it tough, the higher the angle of the radar scan the more blocked it looks. I try for a lower scan that does hit Mansfield but shows much better snow over here from Stowe to Waterbury. It’s almost like the higher echos on the lower scans are on the east slope. But there’s a lot of downwind movement too from when the radar hits the fluffy flakes and where they actually reach the ground. Like this scan is still 6,000ft up over me showing 30dbz snows...that’s probably actually hitting the ground miles eastward lol. Blocked flow would have those echos stopping more at the Spine.

Grass almost gone at home, blowing and drifting too. This is some surprisingly dry snow it seems. Be curious to get JSpin’s water analysis later today when the first round shuts off.

It is snowing nicely. MVL ASOS dropped under 1 mile vis for the first time of the season in snow. Radar looks great. The office at the ski area is going to get destroyed, lol.

Yeah it is. Heavier precip is over the crest and it’s 37F at 1400ft. 38-41F down in the lower elevations.

Tomorrow morning does have a nice little period. The 18z ECMWF from 6-10am shows temps of 32-29F in the valley with a steady light snow. Total water after the clipper-like system tomorrow night is decent for a global model. I do think it’s good when the global models show these type of progs... they know there’s terrain there and can often underestimate it. Usually this is a very good look for a global model. Jackpot right over Mansfield, Bolton and J.Spins house, lol.

The 18z HRRR looks nice.

Wet flakes are making it down to top of Mtn Triple at like 2600-2700ft. Accumulations are 2800-2900ft and up. I just walked it the rain line ha. Not as much fun. Dont know if this works, but a vid of it on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/p/CHD4_t1B9-A/?igshid=elxopp9x865g

It is dumping snow up here. Prob 1”/hr rates. Quick half inch down.

Precip has started as snow up here at 3,000ft.

12z EURO was decent again. Over a half inch frozen liquid.

The peaks do fine in most events to be honest... I personally like 1+ as that gets snow into town on this side usually. 0.5-0.75 usually doesn’t get much more than flurries in town and puts the snow over in Jericho and Underhill on west side. 0.75-1.25 is usually a good sweet spot for the peaks. To me most of the Froude is to determine what inhabited areas get more snow, like RT 100 corridor east side or the west slope communities. Sharply rising Froude to me also signals for cellular squally weather that can go way downstream into E.VT even.

Jeez.... the 4km BTV output is signaling a big event if this is the first part tomorrow. Those 850mb temps are in the sweet spot for great snow growth...most of the better UVVs are just above the ridge crests in that 850-750mb level, so I typically use -10C as a ballmark temp for the sweet spot. I've found our best events do come with 850mb temps in that low negative teens range. Monday morning into early afternoon it wants to rip 0.05"/hr water at -8C to -12C and Froude numbers are quite high indicating unblocked flow, should allow for good eastward movement of the precipitation downwind of the barrier. This model has some significant QPF for the northern Greens just through Monday evening before the Monday night/Tuesday morning event swings through. Wind direction at 290-300 degrees is right in that sweet spot too. Really nothing to complain about on this output. The sharply rising Froude number after 16z indicates more squally weather to me as depth of mixing increases. Probably becomes more cellular with graupel tomorrow afternoon before the first wave shuts down.

I'm looking for 2-3" at home and maybe 6" at the office at 1,500ft.

Visiting winter on the Upper East Side. It is very obvious this time of year how well the east slope preserves snow...and shows how the Stowe side of Mansfield builds such a deep snowpack only seeing direct sunlight in the morning hours (coldest part of the day). The sunsets up here at like 1PM (goes into the shadows) so that it is getting zero sunlight during the warmest part of the day in the afternoon. The east side of Mansfield looked a lot more wintry than anywhere around here, much lower residual snow level too. There was coatings of snow as low as 1,800ft on the east slope while over at south facing Spruce it looked like that level was 3,000ft for any sign of winter. Avoiding afternoon sunlight does wonders for snow preservation, ha.

For sure, I don't think this will be as elevation dependent except the first wave maybe? I think 2-4"/3-6" is possible for the lower elevations surrounding the Spine and in the Spine. I full expect it to be the first widespread accumulating snow in the inhabited areas around here.