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powderfreak

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Everything posted by powderfreak

  1. powderfreak
    12z 3KM takes that surface low just a bit further west along the New England/NY border. It appears the heaviest will be immediately NW of that feature? Lot of spread in SNE though, especially eastern areas.
  2. powderfreak
    12z HRRR would. 8” at MVL… A foot at Mansfield with the whole east slope all draining within 300 feet of my place. Flexseal won’t stop that.
  3. powderfreak
    Yeah we’ve been fairly dry but it’s often more frequent rains at lighter amounts. Same amount as the 1-2” at Taunton, which is apparently full Stein.
  4. powderfreak
    These 6z Mesos are a problem. This is Irene levels of issues in the most susceptible tight narrow terrain/hills/mtns of central and eastern VT. Roads and towns follow water through narrow valleys and hollows. 6z HRRR pretty widespread 5-8”. 6z 3km NAM is like villages off the grid for a while. Can’t dump 5-10” into that terrain given how there’s already been hydro problems.
  5. powderfreak
    Someone gets smoked. Catskills, Berkshires, Greens.
  6. powderfreak
    Looks like you'll be mowing at 6:30 tomorrow morning Sunrise in Greenfield is 5:21am… why wait until 6:30?
  7. powderfreak
    73/70 Humid, there are some massive insects in the floodlight this evening outside. Have to be thriving in this tropical environment.
  8. powderfreak
    This is what I was envisioning and trying to convey yesterday I believe (though not as eloquently). The warm season rainfall footprint is often significantly less widespread than models show, but the “jackpots” will see more water than models show. I think that’s what you are getting at too. Like 3-4” won’t be that widespread but where it trains could double those amounts. The models are take like a “basin average” approach to QPF.
  9. powderfreak
    3k NAM bringing a good bit of water into parts of SNE. It’s not just PA to VT. Reggie is a pretty widespread soaker.
  10. powderfreak
    Yeah this map shows the road damage. We got hit pretty hard around Stowe too but the terrain up here opens up quite a bit more. Central VT has a lot more hilly terrain and narrow drainages. It’s tighter so to speak. Really multiplies that rainfall. Up north and into NEK, it feels more wide open than the hills in central/southern Vt.
  11. powderfreak
    That’s a noteworthy mudslide. Realizing 4” of water in one hour will lead to this in mountain topography.
  12. powderfreak
    You’ve said it before… high dew points in the mountains can lead to a lot of water with the daily tropical downpours. Today’s storms started firing by 11am.
  13. powderfreak
    I don’t know, I saw they got RT 4 open one lane only. I don’t even know if those shots are from RT 4 but the headline was about it and subsequent photos were those.
  14. powderfreak
    That 3-4” in one hour on radar estimates near Killington with legit mudslides really f*cked up RT 4 it sounds like.
  15. powderfreak
    Can you post them?
  16. powderfreak
    Damage near Killington, VT.
  17. powderfreak
    I usually think these end up like models show a widespread 3-6” and you get a narrow focused axis of like 6-8” with widespread 1-3”. Who knows though. Haven’t looked at it much, just how I generally view more convective QPF progs.
  18. powderfreak
    Some water chances for sure. Probably less widespread than the models show but the core might see higher totals?
  19. powderfreak
    We’ve been threading the needle with just some light rain at times. Those suckers drop a lot of water real fast though.
  20. powderfreak
    Been hearing thunder for what seems like 2 hours but staying dry for now. 78/69 at local PWS.
  21. powderfreak
    Regionwide rainfall looks to continue over the next two weeks. All models show positive northeast precip anomalies going forward. Humid pattern and high PWATS seem to limit Stein. Not a dry pattern. Personally I always like a NYC to PWM/AUG line for maximum interaction of Atlantic moisture with inland forcing.
  22. powderfreak
    It was hot today even at elevation. It was a high-end day IMO. One of the most dehydrating days via sweat when active outside.
  23. powderfreak
    I like San Diego weather. More like June 1st… 93/46 weather.
  24. powderfreak
    Yeah it’s a novel change of pace. I’ll give it that. It feels like summer. Give it a few weeks and I’ll be ready to move on. I still want May back though. Torching dry RH, dying grass, no clouds for weeks, lol.
  25. powderfreak
    If you are shivering at 77F in the shade you’re too old already. That sounds like my late grandfather at 90 years old on his porch. No idea how you survive the rest of the year if this is the most comfortable weather lol.
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