ChescoWx

After our below normal temperature winter across the county we have now seen a much warmer than normal March. Through today we are at the 25th warmest March since 1893. With warmer days before we finish the month we could finish close to a top 10 warm Month. Below is the average temperature trend line for all March months since 1893. Average temperatures have clearly not changed much over the past 132 years across the area.

After our below normal temperature winter across the county we have now seen a much warmer than normal March. Through today we are at the 25th warmest March since 1893. With warmer days before we finish the month we could finish close to a top 10 warm Month. Below is the average temperature trend line for all March months since 1893. Average temperatures have clearly not changed much over the past 132 years across the area.

After our below normal temperature winter across the county we have now seen a much warmer than normal March. Through today we are at the 25th warmest March since 1893. With warmer days before we finish the month we could finish close to a top 10 warm Month. Below is the average temperature trend line for all March months since 1893. Average temperatures have clearly not changed much over the past 132 years across the area.

A bit warmer today before our first 70 degree plus day of the year tomorrow across many of the higher spots across the area. In fact, tomorrow will be our warmest day here in East Nantmeal since the 73-degree reading back on November 7th. Still mild through Monday before a turn to cooler on Tuesday. Some showers are possible this evening, but a better chance of rain arrives Sunday night into Monday night. The Phillies home opener on Monday may be delayed till Tuesday.

A bit warmer today before our first 70 degree plus day of the year tomorrow across many of the higher spots across the area. In fact, tomorrow will be our warmest day here in East Nantmeal since the 73-degree reading back on November 7th. Still mild through Monday before a turn to cooler on Tuesday. Some showers are possible this evening, but a better chance of rain arrives Sunday night into Monday night. The Phillies home opener on Monday may be delayed till Tuesday.

Happy Phillies Opening Day to all who celebrate! Go Phillies!! Today will be our 2nd straight below normal temperature day. Through yesterday we have seen only 5 below normal days this month. We start a big warmup tomorrow and through Monday before we turn sharply colder and fall back below normal by next Tuesday. Slight rain chances on Friday night but a better chance by Sunday night through Monday.

Happy Phillies Opening Day to all who celebrate! Go Phillies!! Today will be our 2nd straight below normal temperature day. Through yesterday we have seen only 5 below normal days this month. We start a big warmup tomorrow and through Monday before we turn sharply colder and fall back below normal by next Tuesday. Slight rain chances on Friday night but a better chance by Sunday night through Monday.

We also saw a few flakes here along the soaring peaks of The Welsh Mountain anticline here in Chester County....

I actually went back and looked at the NCEI adjustments specifically for the West Chester Station (there are some gaps on both the actual and adjusted figures for quite a few years especially in 1910's / 1970's and 1990's) - but from what we have they chilled every single year from 1880 thru 1969...then began additional cooling adjustments from 1979-83 of 0.6 degrees. NCEI then decided to alter the actual data with some of the largest cooling adjustments on record from 1987 thru 1990 of between 3 and 4 degrees each year. To cap it all off they then began to consistently warm the final 10 years of actual data with a steady 0.3 degree warming adjustment made to each of the years between 2007-2017.

Sorry Charlie - the DEOS data is actually runs operationally by NCEP and all of this data has been QC'd and added to NOAA's data archive and is being used by the NCDC. The data above was in reality run without "my house". It is only NWS QC data. So which of my data has not been certified by the NWS??

LOL! Charlie knows my data is available and not hidden. Anyone can obtain and analyze the data. It is all public data. The data is the data! My methods are fully and completely disclosed. My method is to only include the actual certified NWS Cooperative Data....nothing more! No data manipulation so no methods - just raw and the facts!!

LOL!!! You will note in the above I asked Charlie to take it to the Chesco thread where we are continuing the debate....

@TheClimateChanger in case you forgot - below is the available on the internet raw data and the analysis comparing the Actual Raw data vs the altered NCEI Data for Chester County PA. This clearly shows Chesco has not warmed 2 degrees (see orange actual raw temps) according to the unaltered data. However, you can clearly see in the blue line the altered post hoc data in blue that does show that warming that can only be accomplished by recasting the actual data and ignoring all of the actual raw data in Chester County.

Thanks @TheClimateChangerExcellent!! Likely but.....drum roll please "we can’t definitively say Chester County hasn’t warmed at all. " Fake news if it was Grok to " @ChescoWx’s refusal to share raw data or engage peer review undermines their case. Extraordinary claims need extraordinary evidence, and they’re light on the latter" I have often shared my raw data file plus it is all available via the internet. It is available upon request to anyone. Let me know if you want it?

Grok even mentions me! It cannot confirm!!! "Without specific data for Chester County, PA, from NCEI’s raw versus adjusted records, I can’t confirm the exact nature or extent of changes for that location. However, local weather enthusiasts, like those at chescowx.com, have noted that NOAA/NCEI adjustments have historically "chilled" Chester County data from 1893 to 2005 and "warmed" more recent years.

Now you jump to another time period....let's stay focused on the period in question (1927-1947). Show us some actual data for the period we are looking at above that validate NOAA/NCEI adjusting all temperatures lower than any thermometer anywhere in the county recorded during those 21 years in question.

So you are admitting there is no actual annual average thermometer readings that you can show us in the entire county for that period that support the cooler altered NOAA/NCEI data for even one of those 21 years of data across all of those stations?? Hello McFly......

Chillier than normal for late March both today and tomorrow with highs today in the upper 40's. A below freezing night on tap tonight for most of the area. We start a nice warming trend on Friday through Monday before we turn colder than normal again by Tuesday. A slight chance of rain late Friday night with better chances by Sunday night into Monday.

Chillier than normal for late March both today and tomorrow with highs today in the upper 40's. A below freezing night on tap tonight for most of the area. We start a nice warming trend on Friday through Monday before we turn colder than normal again by Tuesday. A slight chance of rain late Friday night with better chances by Sunday night into Monday.

For @chubbsso he can more clearly see the adjustment made to each available Chester County PA station from 1927 thru 1947. As is clearly shown NCEI adjusted every station to colder than any station of record in the county for each of those years with the exception of 1940!! Charlie let us know if you can now see the adjustments made by NCEI clearly and that yes it does chill the raw temperatures every single year. It is clear as can be!! The NCEI average annual Chesco temp for all those years was in fact adjusted below what any station reported in their raw observations.

It seems you are ignoring the line on the original chart I posted that shows the "station adjusted vs coldest" That clearly shows that every single station was in fact chilled below any raw readings for each and every year from 1927 thu 1947 except for 1940. The degree of altered data from raw vs the NCEI adjustment is clearly shown there. Can't make it any clearer than that! Let's take this to the Chester County focused thread and I will circle it for you there and maybe then you see the adjustments.

You never answer the facts and data (try to focus only on the years in question) You also continue to mix up your answers! Your premise and response for Q4 is wrong - Coatesville is factually not warmer than Chester County....it should be cooler of course compared to all of those other stations you mention above. BUT if you are right and they are as you say in Q4 unsurprisingly warmer.... than why again did NCEI take those cooler Coatesville temps and no not warm them up as you would it seem believe - but instead chose to chill them below any actual real factual thermometer readings for all those years?

No evasion at all. For this discussion let's assume Coatesville did get colder with the move. If it did then why would NCEI turn around and adjust every available reporting station that was warmer downward to not just at the level of the coldest station but below it?? Can you answer?

Why are you focusing on just 1 station in Chester County? You are evading the analysis if Coatesville was indeed too cold why turn around and adjust all other stations that were indeed warmer to colder levels than even at Coatesville? Can you explain this??

While we didn’t get as much rain as our neighbors to the east yesterday we continue to put a dent in our drought concerns. The European and GFS models paint another 2" to 3" of rain over the next couple of weeks. Today we should see some sun with temperatures well into the 50's or a few degrees above normal. Wednesday and Thursday look to be a couple of degrees chillier than normal before a nice warm up over the weekend. With the warmup we will see our rain chances increase.