ChescoWx

Today will actually be our 10th winter event of the 2024-2025 season. While we have only added up to 15.1" of snow/sleet so far this season that is 77% of our average snow through today. For Team Snow if you are upset with our snow deficit this year....imagine if you lived in the upper Midwest. Here in Chester County, we have almost 40% more snow so far this winter season than both Minneapolis and Chicago? Today we should see snow arriving this afternoon quickly changing to sleet and then freezing rain. Driving this evening should be discouraged. We have a few more winter events in our future this week. However, the trend has been overall for less snow than earlier modeled. That said several inches of snow and sleet remain possible before the Friday morning rush hour. No doubt many forecast changes remain this week.

We also have the NBM ticking up from it's 6z run....if you choose to believe!!

The 6z ops looked less than great....but as Positive Paul....the GFS Ensemble did almost double from it's 0z run for this week. The trend begins???????....

The fact the 18z Euro ensemble is the same as 12z says the operational was a lower outlier....plenty of time to come back

Feb8radarNAm.mp4

I always like a south Goofus a few days prior to an event - let the north trend begin at 0z!!! NWS discussion says their confidence is increasing for a mid week plowable event

Inches of sleet so if you see 1.0 inches that is about 0.30" of liquid = sleet - not really a perfect calculation but gives a general idea

From the Mt Holly discussion... There is a chance of warning level ice across parts of southeastern PA, with the highest odds across Chester and Montgomery Counties, but not confident in issuing any ice storm warnings yet, so capped ice below 1/4 inch for the time being.

agreed!

truth!

NWS has growing confidence in plowable snow this week "While it’s still four to five days away, confidence is increasing the region will see a plowable snow event sometime during the mid- week period next week. It’s going to be active regardless with the first system arriving on Tuesday and sticking around through early Wednesday. The second system will arrive on Thursday and persist into Friday.”

18z NAM ups sleet totals

Let's hope Trumpy throws out the bad models along with all the other grifters he is showing to the door!!

I just never understand the folks that are gleeful after 1 run and in the toilet after a bad one. The truth is never in the extremes....watch the ensembles and you will never be misled IMHO

plenty of time for relatively small changes in the above...

Not sure what I am missing with all the doom and gloom. The NBM is far from shabby snow wise next week from Tuesday 7am thru Friday 7am

a run 12 days out does not a storm make or break.....

Maybe our cyclical climate change is taking us back to the period from 1967 thru 1977.....now those were lean snow years but still cold like this winter! Warm - cold - wet - dry - snowy - rinse and repeat in our constantly changing climate!

If we get that much we will be above normal snowfall for the year....people were spoiled by a couple of our snowiest decades during the last 2 complete decades.

Another solid 12z run....not sure it will happen but suspect most on here would sign up for this....

All looked great IMHO! for a solid snowfall for most of the region

Agreed! the models are very consistent in bringing a moderate event between now and Thursday.

Below are the 1st 3 of the 12z runs - simply looking at model snow amounts by Thursday morning. They are all in basic agreement on moderate snow totals across the area this week.

NAM with a look not too different from our last event for tomorrow.