north pgh

Rain pounding here. .56 so far. Winds haven't been too bad. Maybe 45 mph gusts. Flash Flooding may be the new threat as storms training a bit.

Not so fast. Getting a decent thunderstorm here now with some decent lightning.

Not looking for severe thunderstorms but would like to sit on the porch and watch some lightning and general thundershowers. The damn warm air aloft strikes again.

We got hit pretty good here. Luckily my street survived but many neighborhoods around us didn’t. Power just came on. I am guessing a microburst hit. Our winds had to be over 70mph. Trees were uprooted and the ground wasn’t very saturated. Hail was 1 inch diameter. It lasted a good 15 minutes or so.

For someone that likes thunderstorms, I have yet to see a flash of lightning yet and we are heading into June. Only a few distant rumbles of thunder and some strong winds that’s it. I don’t need severe storms just general pop up thunderstorms with a lot of lightning especially at night.

I would rather have the humid and a chance of thunderstorms mixed in with the rain as opposed to steady rain and cool.

3 rumbles of thunder yesterday morning. 1.61 inches of rain. Not your classic thunderstorm but getting closer. Still waiting to see my first flash of lightning.

Hoping for my first thunderstorm of the year tonight

Still waiting for my first thunderstorm of the year

Back to tomorrow... it looks like a small burst of snow showers around daybreak tomorrow. Don't be surprised if we see some good snow showers and a potential squall during the mid to late afternoon. I'm pretty sure we won't see much sticking but should be fun to see. I can remember growing up as a kid in the 70's getting some nice spring bursts with the dark skies just before the snow showers would hit leaving some white in the grassy areas.

I think this is a good thing. Too many people are clueless when it comes to the difference between watches and warnings.

Picked up close to an inch here. Tapering off now. Looks like it is about done. Pretty much as expected.

Forecast BUFKIT profiles suggest precipitation onset as all snow; and with sufficient moisture through the DGZ, a few inches snow may accumulate which may pose hazardous travel conditions during the morning commute. Though, efficient snowfall accumulation potential should be short-lived with the infiltration of mid-level dry air. Nevertheless, recent GFS analogs suggest the greatest potential for 2 inches or greater exists for the I-80 corridor and higher elevations, and 4 inches or greater for the highest elevations in WV. To address this potential advisory-level criteria, these counties have been highlighted in the HWO. Guidance suggests a precipitation changeover should occur for lower elevations, including the PGH metro, as veering low level southerly flow ushers in warm enough conditions to support rain. A cold front passage Monday afternoon should diminish remaining precipitation potential through Monday night, with lingering low level moisture beneath a subsidence inversion maintaining mention of flurries.

Picked up 2 inches of fluffy snow from late yesterday afternoon thru this morning.

I think that if things play out we may upgrade to an advisory if rush hour is bad. This is part of the AFD: Bordered this with an advisory for 3-6 inches of accumulation from eastern Westmoreland southwest to Wetzel. 3 inch/12 hour criteria is borderline in this area, but impact to morning commute can also justify this advisory. Would not be surprised if advisory needs a northern expansion as we get closer to the event.

Agreed that these models can't come to an agreement. 1-5 inches is a broad range on the models. For those of you that like the Short term 18 HRRR it looks a little better than most for our area. It looks like there is a first batch of snow that starts after midnight and gives us an inch or two by morning. Then after a break in the morning some more light snow moves in during the afternoon giving us another 1-2 inches. This would give pretty much everyone in Allegheny County 3 inches by tomorrow night. At this point I would be okay with that. I know this model changes hour to hour but I take more faith in this model as we are this close to the storm time. Regardless, snowflakes will be flying most of the day tomorrow so I will enjoy what falls.

At this point I would take this. If it snows for 12 hours at a 1/4 inch per hour that is fine with me. If we over perform and get 3-5 or 4-6 than much better. It’s game time. Let’s go!

Today has been a nice surprise of a day. Snow has been falling and blowing the last 6 hours with winds of 25 mph. These days always amazed me because it is 22 and snowing here and 50 across the state in Philly. That's why I will take our Winter climo over theirs any day.

GFS took a step in the right direction for us. I would be happy with a solid 4-6 for our region.

The Weather Channel is falling into that hype on accumulations by using weather models. 2 Days ago they had potential snowfall totals scrolling across their screen. They had Pittsburgh as 12-18 inches possible by Friday. We all know that long term models always show lots of snow for us. This is going to screw with the average viewer because now they won't believe anything anyone says about snow totals. I know in their case it is about ratings and they are just looking for extremes. I wish they would go back to the old TWC but they never will.

They should all be scared. It is too early to post accumulation amounts. They should use the old forecast from years ago and say ...snow with some accumulation possible. Wait until tomorrow when these models are more in line.

Precip seems to be moving into the south hills. Let’s see if we have any reports from our southern posters. Would still be nice to see a quick burst of snow before the event.

I am heading out at 6:00 for a couple hours. I’ll let you know how it is when I get back.

Yes this NAM run is strange. We will have to wait til tonight or tomorrow to see what is really going on. It has a similar setup on thurs as today but today the low is tracking into West Virginia and Thursday it shows it in the gulf with the precip in pa.