CoastalWx

Bocce?

The NAM at some point will have obscene amounts in a narrow area when it gets into view.

I would like the rain, but wish it holds off a bit.

That boundary sags south slowly.

I think axis will be closer to low level convergence wherever that is.

Dry wells in Taunton. They still need to dry out from the drenching this month.

I'll take a look...admittedly have not sat down and looked at what you posted.

Yes regarding your second paragraph. But to your last paragraph...waters have warmed everywhere. I am just afraid that we may be missing some things due to the new classification. Pretend we have a year where the waters near the dateline are -0.5C currently. The waters to the east off of Peru are near normal. 10 years ago maybe the waters would be near -0.9C near the dateline and -0.4C off Peru. However, is the atmosphere really behaving differently? We still have that temp differential...it's just that the temp baseline changed. I dunno...maybe I'm talking in circles, but it's why I asked regarding looking at the tropical forcing.

GWDLT. Way too early.

I know they changed the classifications of ENSO events based on the new climo. For example some years that are strong Nina...are now considered moderate based on the new climo given warmer SSTs. However, has anyone ever tried to use where the forcing is as a better proxy? What I mean is that stronger Ninas have a basic H5 pattern based on where the forcing is in the Pacific. In theory, I don't think that take should change because the new ENSO classifications call a prior strong event, moderate based on a few tenths of a degree Celsius of warming. Lets say we have a neutral ENSO based on SST anomalies. However, 10 years ago this may have been considered weak Nina, and we currently have easterly wind anomalies as if it was a weak Nina. Something to think about.

There is definitely a signal for a narrow axis to get heavy rains based on what you said above. Just has that look. My guess is probably Monday as the boundary sets up and doesn’t move much.

Just give me Monday.

That cutoff will be all over the place on models.

6”+ not enough?

Good. Let’s beer and bbq.

Must have been low to mid 40s last night at the lake too. Currently 46.

Keep it north so we can salvage Labor Day. Let’s go Stein!

A breeze blowing too. There’s a nip in the air.

Low 60s is a little cool for me this early. I’ll take that after mid month haha. I still want the warm weather around, but I’m cool without the dews at this point.

I wear shorts as long as I can. But to have a set date to wear a certain type of clothes, is unsettling.

Subtle trend north last 18-24 hrs or so. Who knows with these cutoffs. But part of me hopes for a semi-entertaining solution to verify for once! Of course it may screw up Labor Day.

Shorts start and stop whenever the temp dictates??

Late March LOL.